Patient and caregiver involvement in the formulation of guideline questions: findings from the European Academy of Neurology guideline on palliative care of people with severe multiple sclerosis

Background and purpose: Patient and public involvement in clinical practice guideline development is recommended to increase guideline trustworthiness and relevance. The aim was to engage multiple sclerosis (MS) patients and caregivers in the definition of the key questions to be answered in the European Academy of Neurology guideline on palliative care of people with severe MS. Methods: A mixed methods approach was used: an international online survey launched by the national MS societies of eight countries, after pilot testing/debriefing on 20 MS patients and 18 caregivers, focus group meetings of Italian and German MS patients and caregivers. Results: Of 1199 participants, 951 (79%) completed the whole online survey and 934 from seven countries were analysed: 751 (80%) were MS patients (74% women, mean age 46.1) and 183 (20%) were caregivers (36% spouses/partners, 72% women, mean age 47.4). Participants agreed/strongly agreed on inclusion of the nine pre-specified topics (from 89% for ‘advance care planning’ to 98% for ‘multidisciplinary rehabilitation’), and <5% replied ‘I prefer not to answer’ to any topic. There were 569 free comments: 182 (32%) on the pre-specified topics, 227 (40%) on additional topics (16 guideline-pertinent) and 160 (28%) on outcomes. Five focus group meetings (three of MS patients, two of caregivers, and overall 35 participants) corroborated the survey findings. In addition, they allowed an explanation of the guideline production process and the exploration of patient-important outcomes and of taxing issues. Conclusions: Multiple sclerosis patient and caregiver involvement was resource and time intensive, but rewarding. It was the key for the formulation of the 10 guideline questions and for the identification of patient-important outcomes

Sigh in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure and acute respiratory distress syndrome: the PROTECTION pilot randomized clinical trial

Background: Sigh is a cyclic brief recruitment manoeuvre: previous physiological studies showed that its use could be an interesting addition to pressure support ventilation to improve lung elastance, decrease regional heterogeneity and increase release of surfactant. Research question: Is the clinical application of sigh during pressure support ventilation (PSV) feasible? Study design and methods: We conducted a multi-center non-inferiority randomized clinical trial on adult intubated patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure or acute respiratory distress syndrome undergoing PSV. Patients were randomized to the No Sigh group and treated by PSV alone, or to the Sigh group, treated by PSV plus sigh (increase of airway pressure to 30 cmH2Ofor 3 seconds once per minute) until day 28 or death or successful spontaneous breathing trial. The primary endpoint of the study was feasibility, assessed as non-inferiority (5% tolerance) in the proportion of patients failing assisted ventilation. Secondary outcomes included safety, physiological parameters in the first week from randomization, 28-day mortality and ventilator-free days. Results: Two-hundred fifty-eight patients (31% women; median age 65 [54-75] years) were enrolled. In the Sigh group, 23% of patients failed to remain on assisted ventilation vs. 30% in the No Sigh group (absolute difference -7%, 95%CI -18% to 4%; p=0.015 for non-inferiority). Adverse events occurred in 12% vs. 13% in Sigh vs. No Sigh (p=0.852). Oxygenation was improved while tidal volume, respiratory rate and corrected minute ventilation were lower over the first 7 days from randomization in Sigh vs. No Sigh. There was no significant difference in terms of mortality (16% vs. 21%, p=0.342) and ventilator-free days (22 [7-26] vs. 22 [3-25] days, p=0.300) for Sigh vs. No Sigh. Interpretation: Among hypoxemic intubated ICU patients, application of sigh was feasible and without increased risk

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

FloWare: An Approach for IoT Support and Application Development

With the advancement of computing technology, we are witnessing the dawn of a new era of the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm in which objects equipped with sensors, actuators and processing capabilities communicate with each other to serve a given goal. The IoT’s intrinsic nature, which uses heterogeneous devices, resources and different communication protocols, complicates IoT applications’ design, development, and validation. Reducing the complexity of building IoT applications is one of the current challenges in this area. To address this challenge, we focus on a model-driven approach to support IoT systems’ management and the development of IoT applications. In particular, we propose the FloWare approach and its toolchain, which combine Software Product Line and Flow-Based Programming paradigms to manage the complexity in the various stages of the IoT application development process. An automatic transformation procedure generates the final IoT application, an executable Node-RED flow, starting from a configuration of the designed Feature Models

X-IoT: A Model-Driven Approach for Cross-Platform IoT Applications Development

Several heterogeneous IoT platforms have been proposed and regularly used by enterprises and academies to support and facilitate IoT software applications development. However, IoT applications strongly depend on the functionalities supported by the specific platform used. This affects the development and portability of the developed applications that may require significant changes, or a complete re-design, for being migrated between platforms. This paper presents X-IoT, an MDE approach for developing cross-platform IoT applications. The approach implements a Domain-Specific Modelling Language (DSML) based on emerging IoT application requirements. A meta-model that incorporates the main IoT platform characteristics has been developed within the ADOxx platform, together with a graphical notation. Through the DSML, it is possible to model a platform-independent model of IoT applications that are refined and deployed on specific IoT platforms

X-IoT: a model-driven approach to support IoT application portability across IoT platforms

Several IoT platforms have been proposed to support and facilitate the development of IoT applications. Unfortunately, using an IoT platform makes the developed application strongly dependent on the specific platform’s functionalities. This reduces the portability of the IoT application that may require significant adaptations, or a complete re-design, for being migrated towards other platforms. To mitigate the lack of IoT application portability, we present X-IoT (read as cross-IoT), a model-driven approach supporting the development of cross-platform IoT applications. X-IoT is based on a Domain-Specific Modelling Language (DSML) and its related notation, whose development has been guided by a deep analysis of IoT application characteristics. Tool support is provided through the ADOxx platform, which allows using the DSML to model platform-independent IoT applications, that can be successively refined and deployed on selected IoT platforms. The applicability of the approach is demonstrated through a meeting room scenario

A Single-Group Study on the Effect of OnabotulinumtoxinA in Patients with Chronic Migraine Associated with Medication Overuse Headache: Pain Catastrophizing Plays a Role

Pain catastrophizing and cutaneous allodynia are commonly altered in patients with chronic migraine associated with medication overuse headache (CM-MOH) and tend to improve in parallel with clinical improvement. The relation between pain catastrophizing and cutaneous allodynia is poorly understood in patients with CM-MOH receiving OnabotulinumtoxinA therapy. In this single-arm open-label longitudinal observational study, patients with CM-MOH were assigned to structured withdrawal and then administered OnabotulinumtoxinA (5 sessions on a three-month basis, 195 UI per 31 sites). Headache frequency, medication intake, disability, impact, cutaneous allodynia and pain catastrophizing were evaluated with specific questionnaires. In total, 96 patients were enrolled and 79 completed the 12-month follow-up. With the exclusion of cutaneous allodynia and the magnification subscale of the pain catastrophizing questionnaire, all variables showed significant improvement by the sixth month, which was maintained at 12 months. Reduction of pain catastrophizing, and particularly of its helplessness subscale, was a significant predictor of reduction in headache frequency and medication intake. Pain catastrophizing is often implicated in the clinical improvement in patients with CM-MOH receiving behavioral treatments, but, in this study, also showed a role in patients receiving OnabotulinumtoxinA; combining OnabotulinumtoxinA and behavioral treatments specifically addressing pain catastrophizing might further enhance patients&rsquo; clinical outcome