Global multimodel analysis of drought in runoff for the second half of the twentieth century

During the past decades large-scale models have been developed to simulate global and continental terrestrial water cycles. It is an open question whether these models are suitable to capture hydrological drought, in terms of runoff, on global scale. A multi-model ensemble analysis was carried out to evaluate if ten of such large-scale models agree on major drought events during the second half of the 20th century. Time series of monthly precipitation, monthly total runoff from ten global hydrological models, and their ensemble median have been used to identify drought. Temporal development of area in drought for various regions across the globe was investigated. Model spread was largest in regions with low runoff and smallest in regions with high runoff. In vast regions, correlation between runoff drought derived from the models and meteorological drought was found to be low. This indicated that models add information to the signal derived from precipitation and that runoff drought cannot directly be determined from precipitation data alone in global drought analyses with a constant aggregation period. However, duration and spatial extent of major drought events differed between models. Some models showed a fast runoff response to rainfall, which led to deviations from reported drought events in slowly responding hydrological systems. By using an ensemble of models, this fast runoff response was partly overcome and delay in drought propagating from meteorological drought to drought in runoff was included. Finally, an ensemble of models also allows to consider uncertainty associated with individual model structures

Ecological association between a deprivation index and mortality in France over the period 1997 – 2001: variations with spatial scale, degree of urbanicity, age, gender and cause of death

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Spatial health inequalities have often been analysed in terms of deprivation. The aim of this study was to create an ecological deprivation index and evaluate its association with mortality over the entire mainland France territory. More specifically, the variations with the degree of urbanicity, spatial scale, age, gender and cause of death, which influence the association between mortality and deprivation, have been described.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The deprivation index, 'FDep99', was developed at the '<it>commune</it>'(smallest administrative unit in France) level as the first component of a principal component analysis of four socioeconomic variables.</p> <p>Proxies of the Carstairs and Townsend indices were calculated for comparison.</p> <p>The spatial association between FDep99 and mortality was studied using five different spatial scales, and by degree of urbanicity (five urban unit categories), age, gender and cause of death, over the period 1997–2001.</p> <p>'Avoidable' causes of death were also considered for subjects aged less than 65 years. They were defined as causes related to risk behaviour and primary prevention (alcohol, smoking, accidents).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The association between the FDep99 index and mortality was positive and quasi-log-linear, for all geographic scales. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was 24% higher for the <it>communes </it>of the most deprived quintile than for those of the least deprived quintile. The between-urban unit category and between-<it>région </it>heterogeneities of the log-linear associations were not statistically significant. The association was positive for all the categories studied and was significantly greater for subjects aged less than 65 years, for men, and for 'avoidable' mortality.</p> <p>The amplitude and regularity of the associations between mortality and the Townsend and Carstairs indices were lower.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The deprivation index proposed reflects a major part of spatial socioeconomic heterogeneity, in a homogeneous manner over the whole country. The index may be routinely used by healthcare authorities to observe, analyse, and manage spatial health inequalities.</p

Characterization of a Drosophila Alzheimer's Disease Model: Pharmacological Rescue of Cognitive Defects

Transgenic models of Alzheimer's disease (AD) have made significant contributions to our understanding of AD pathogenesis, and are useful tools in the development of potential therapeutics. The fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster, provides a genetically tractable, powerful system to study the biochemical, genetic, environmental, and behavioral aspects of complex human diseases, including AD. In an effort to model AD, we over-expressed human APP and BACE genes in the Drosophila central nervous system. Biochemical, neuroanatomical, and behavioral analyses indicate that these flies exhibit aspects of clinical AD neuropathology and symptomology. These include the generation of Aβ40 and Aβ42, the presence of amyloid aggregates, dramatic neuroanatomical changes, defects in motor reflex behavior, and defects in memory. In addition, these flies exhibit external morphological abnormalities. Treatment with a γ-secretase inhibitor suppressed these phenotypes. Further, all of these phenotypes are present within the first few days of adult fly life. Taken together these data demonstrate that this transgenic AD model can serve as a powerful tool for the identification of AD therapeutic interventions

Functional genomic screen and network analysis reveal novel modifiers of tauopathy dissociated from tau phosphorylation

A functional genetic screen using loss-of-function and gain-of-function alleles was performed to identify modifiers of tau-induced neurotoxicity using the 2N/4R (full-length) isoform of wild-type human tau expressed in the fly retina. We previously reported eye pigment mutations, which create dysfunctional lysosomes, as potent modifiers; here, we report 37 additional genes identified from ∼1900 genes screened, including the kinases shaggy/GSK-3beta, par-1/MARK, CamKI and Mekk1. Tau acts synergistically with Mekk1 and p38 to down-regulate extracellular regulated kinase activity, with a corresponding decrease in AT8 immunoreactivity (pS202/T205), suggesting that tau can participate in signaling pathways to regulate its own kinases. Modifiers showed poor correlation with tau phosphorylation (using the AT8, 12E8 and AT270 epitopes); moreover, tested suppressors of wild-type tau were equally effective in suppressing toxicity of a phosphorylation-resistant S11A tau construct, demonstrating that changes in tau phosphorylation state are not required to suppress or enhance its toxicity. Genes related to autophagy, the cell cycle, RNA-associated proteins and chromatin-binding proteins constitute a large percentage of identified modifiers. Other functional categories identified include mitochondrial proteins, lipid trafficking, Golgi proteins, kinesins and dynein and the Hsp70/Hsp90-organizing protein (Hop). Network analysis uncovered several other genes highly associated with the functional modifiers, including genes related to the PI3K, Notch, BMP/TGF-β and Hedgehog pathways, and nuclear trafficking. Activity of GSK-3β is strongly upregulated due to TDP-43 expression, and reduced GSK-3β dosage is also a common suppressor of Aβ42 and TDP-43 toxicity. These findings suggest therapeutic targets other than mitigation of tau phosphorylation