Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Big Five Personality Traits are Associated with Tinnitus Improvement Over Time

Previous studies have shown that personality traits are related to tinnitus distress as measured by the Tinnitus Handicap Inventory (THI) and the Tinnitus Questionnaire (TQ). However, little is known about the role of personality on tinnitus distress over time. We collected the THI and the TQ of 388 patients who visited a tertiary tinnitus clinic between 2012 and 2017, and who filled in a survey with the same questionnaires plus the Big Five Index 2 in 2018. We used personality traits and facets to predict tinnitus distress cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Neuroticism, extraversion, agreeableness, age and gender were significant predictors of the THI and TQ scores in cross-sectional linear regression setups. Next, based on previous literature, we clustered patients in three groups based in the difference THI and TQ between the two assessments: "clinically improved", "clinically stable" and "clinically worsened". The patients in the "clinically improved" and "clinically stable" groups scored statistically significantly lower in neuroticism and higher in extraversion than patients in the group "clinically worsened". Our results suggest that personality is associated with tinnitus distress over time and could be used to statistically distinguish patient groups with clinically relevant changes of tinnitus distress

Évaluation à long terme de la transplantation cardiaque effectuée après assistance ventriculaire comparativement à la transplantation cardiaque standard

International audienceBACKGROUND:Data on the long-term outcome of heart transplantation in patients with a ventricular assist device (VAD) are scarce.AIM:To evaluate long-term outcome after heart transplantation in patients with a VAD compared with no mechanical circulatory support.METHODS:Consecutive all-comers who underwent heart transplantation were included at a single high-volume centre from January 2005 until December 2012, with 5 years of follow-up. Clinical and biological characteristics, operative results, outcomes and survival were recorded. Regression analyses were performed to determine predictors of 1-year and 5-year mortality.RESULTS:Fifty-two patients with bridge to transplantation by VAD (VAD group) and 289 patients transplanted without a VAD (standard group) were enrolled. The mean age was 46±11 years in the VAD group compared with 51±13 years in the standard group (P=0.01); 17% of the VAD group and 25% of the standard group were women (P=0.21). Ischaemic time was longer in the VAD group (207±54 vs 169±60minutes; P<0.01). There was no difference in primary graft failure (33% vs 25%; P=0.22) or 1-year mortality (17% vs 28%; P=0.12). In the multivariable analysis, preoperative VAD was an independent protective factor for 1-year mortality (odds ratio 0.40, 95% confidence interval 0.17-0.97; P=0.04). Independent risk factors for 1-year mortality were recipient age>60 years, recipient creatinine, body surface area mismatch and ischaemic time. The VAD and standard groups had similar long-term survival, with 5-year mortality rates of 35% and 40%, respectively (P=0.72).CONCLUSIONS:Bridge to transplantation by VAD was associated with a reduction in 1-year mortality, leading critically ill patients to similar long-term survival compared with patients who underwent standard heart transplantation. This alternative strategy may benefit carefully selected patientsContextePeu de données sont disponibles concernant le devenir des patients transplantés après l’implantation d’un dispositif d’assistance ventriculaire (DAV).ObjectifsÉvaluer le devenir à long terme après transplantation cardiaque des patients implantés d’un DAV, comparativement aux patients transplantés sans dispositif.MéthodesTous les patients consécutifs qui ont bénéficié d’une transplantation cardiaque entre janvier 2005 et décembre 2012 ont été inclus au sein d’un unique centre à haut volume, avec un suivi de 5 ans. Les caractéristiques cliniques, biologiques, les résultats opératoires, le devenir et la mortalité totale ont été relevés. Des analyses de régression ont été effectuées pour déterminer les facteurs prédictifs de mortalité à 1 et 5 ans.RésultatsCinquante-deux patients « DAV » et 289 patients « standards » transplantés sans DAV ont été inclus. L’âge moyen était de 46 ± 11 ans dans le groupe DAV vs 51 ± 13 ans dans le groupe standard (p = 0,01) et 17% des patients DAV étaient de sexe féminin vs 25% (p = 0,21). Le temps d’ischémie froide était plus long dans le groupe DAV (207 ± 54 vs 169 ± 60 min, p < 0,01). Il n’y avait pas de différence de défaillance primaire du greffon (33% vs 25%, p = 0,22) ou de mortalité à 1 an (17% vs 28%, p = 0,12). Le DAV pré-transplantation était un facteur protecteur indépendant de mortalité à 1 an (OR 0,40 [0,17-0,97], p = 0,04). Les facteurs de risque indépendants de mortalité à 1 an étaient l’âge du receveur>60 ans, la créatinine de receveur, le mismatch de surface corporelle et la durée d’ischémie. Les patients DAV et standards avaient une survie à long terme similaire, avec une mortalité à 5 ans respectivement de 35% et 40% (p = 0,72).ConclusionsLe pont vers la transplantation par un DAV était associé à une réduction de la mortalité à 1 an, conduisant les patients les plus critiques à une survie à long terme comparable à celle des patients transplantés de façon standard. Cette stratégie alternative est susceptible de bénéficier à une population de patients sélectionnés

Atrial natriuretic peptide regulates adipose tissue accumulation in adult atria

International audienceThe abundance of epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) is associated with atrial fibrillation (AF), the most frequent cardiac arrhythmia. However, both the origin and the factors involved in EAT expansion are unknown. Here, we found that adult human atrial epicardial cells were highly adipogenic through an epithelial-mesenchymal transition both in vitro and in vivo. In a genetic lineage tracing the WT1(CreERT2+/-)Rosa(tdT+/-)mouse model subjected to a high-fat diet, adipocytes of atrial EAT derived from a subset of epicardial progenitors. Atrial myocardium secretome induces the adipogenic differentiation of adult mesenchymal epicardium-derived cells by modulating the balance between mesenchymal Wingless-type Mouse Mammary Tumor Virus integration site family, member 10B (Wnt10b)/beta-catenin and adipogenic ERK/MAPK signaling pathways. The adipogenic property of the atrial secretome was enhanced in AF patients. The atrial natriuretic peptide secreted by atrial myocytes is a major adipogenic factor operating at a low concentration by binding to its natriuretic peptide receptor A (NPRA) receptor and, in turn, by activating a cGMP-dependent pathway. Hence, our data indicate cross-talk between EAT expansion and mechanical function of the atrial myocardium

Atrial fibrillation is associated with the fibrotic remodelling of adipose tissue in the subepicardium of human and sheep atria

International audienceAims: Accumulation of atrial adipose tissue is associated with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. We examined the relationship between the characteristics of fatty infiltrates of the atrial myocardium and the history of AF.Methods and results: Atrial samples, collected in 92 patients during cardiac surgery and in a sheep model of persistent AF, were subjected to a detailed histological analysis. In sections of human right atrial samples, subepicardial fatty infiltrations were commonly observed in the majority of patients. A clear difference in the appearance and fibrotic content of these fatty infiltrations was observed. Fibro-fatty infiltrates predominated in patients with permanent AF (no AF: 37 ± 24% vs. paroxysmal AF: 50 ± 21% vs. permanent AF: 64 ± 23%, P < 0.001). An inverse correlation between fibrotic remodelling and the amount of subepicardial adipose tissue suggested the progressive fibrosis of fatty infiltrates with permanent AF. This hypothesis was tested in a sheep model of AF. In AF sheep, an increased accumulation of peri-atrial fat depot was observed on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging and dense fibro-fatty infiltrations predominated in the left atria of AF sheep. Cellular inflammation, mainly consisting of functional cytotoxic T lymphocytes, was observed together with adipocyte cell death in human atria.Conclusion: Atrial fibrillation is associated with the fibrosis of subepicardial fatty infiltrates, a process in which cytotoxic lymphocytes might be involved. This remodelling of the atrial subepicardium could contribute to structural remodelling forming a substrate for AF