Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: new economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy

Recent literature, the US Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment, and recent events, such as Hurricane Sandy, highlight the need to take better account of both storm surge and sea-level rise (SLR) in assessing coastal risks of climate change. This study combines three models—a tropical cyclone simulation model; a storm surge model; and a model for economic impact and adaptation—to estimate the joint effects of storm surge and SLR for the US coast through 2100. The model is tested using multiple SLR scenarios, including those incorporating estimates of dynamic ice-sheet melting, two global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy scenarios, and multiple general circulation model climate sensitivities. The results illustrate that a large area of coastal land and property is at risk of damage from storm surge today; that land area and economic value at risk expands over time as seas rise and as storms become more intense; that adaptation is a cost-effective response to this risk, but residual impacts remain after adaptation measures are in place; that incorporating site-specific episodic storm surge increases national damage estimates by a factor of two relative to SLR-only estimates, with greater impact on the East and Gulf coasts; and that mitigation of GHGs contributes to significant lessening of damages. For a mid-range climate-sensitivity scenario that incorporates dynamic ice sheet melting, the approach yields national estimates of the impacts of storm surge and SLR of $990 billion through 2100 (net of adaptation, cumulative undiscounted 2005$); GHG mitigation policy reduces the impacts of the mid-range climate-sensitivity estimates by $84 to$100 billion.United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Climate Change Division (Contract EP-D-09-054)United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Climate Change Division (Contract EP-BPA-12-H-0024

Partial Tetrasomy of Chromosome 22q11.1 Resulting from a Supernumerary Isodicentric Marker Chromosome in a Boy with Cat-eye Syndrome

The 22q11 region has been implicated in chromosomal rearrangements that result in altered gene dosage, leading to three different congenital malformation syndromes: DiGeorge syndrome, cat-eye syndrome (CES), and der(22) syndrome. Although DiGeorge syndrome is a common genomic disorder on 22q11, CES is quite rare, and there has been no report of Korean CES cases with molecular cytogenetic confirmation. In this study, we present the phenotypic and genetic characteristics of a 3-month-old boy with CES. Clinical findings included micropthalmia, multiple colobomata, and renal and genital anomalies. Cytogenetic analyses showed the presence of a supernumerary marker chromosome, which was identified as a bisatellited and isodicentric chromosome derived from an acrocentric chromosome. The results of array comparative genomic hybridization and fluorescence in situ hybridization studies confirmed the karyotype as 47,XY,+mar.ish idic(22)(q11.1) (D22S43+).arr 22q11.1(15,500,000-15,900,000)x4, resulting in a partial tetrasomy of 22q11.1. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report in Korea of CES confirmed by cytogenetic and molecular cytogenetic analyses

Oceanic sources, sinks, and transport of atmospheric CO2

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23 (2009): GB1005, doi:10.1029/2008GB003349.We synthesize estimates of the contemporary net air-sea CO2 flux on the basis of an inversion of interior ocean carbon observations using a suite of 10 ocean general circulation models (Mikaloff Fletcher et al., 2006, 2007) and compare them to estimates based on a new climatology of the air-sea difference of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) (Takahashi et al., 2008). These two independent flux estimates reveal a consistent description of the regional distribution of annual mean sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 for the decade of the 1990s and the early 2000s with differences at the regional level of generally less than 0.1 Pg C a−1. This distribution is characterized by outgassing in the tropics, uptake in midlatitudes, and comparatively small fluxes in thehigh latitudes. Both estimates point toward a small (∼ −0.3 Pg C a−1) contemporary CO2 sink in the Southern Ocean (south of 44°S), a result of the near cancellation between a substantial outgassing of natural CO2 and a strong uptake of anthropogenic CO2. A notable exception in the generally good agreement between the two estimates exists within the Southern Ocean: the ocean inversion suggests a relatively uniform uptake, while the pCO2-based estimate suggests strong uptake in the region between 58°S and 44°S, and a source in the region south of 58°S. Globally and for a nominal period between 1995 and 2000, the contemporary net air-sea flux of CO2 is estimated to be −1.7 ± 0.4 Pg C a−1 (inversion) and −1.4 ± 0.7 Pg C a−1 (pCO2-climatology), respectively, consisting of an outgassing flux of river-derived carbon of ∼+0.5 Pg C a−1, and an uptake flux of anthropogenic carbon of −2.2 ± 0.3 Pg C a−1 (inversion) and −1.9 ± 0.7 Pg C a−1 (pCO2-climatology). The two flux estimates also imply a consistent description of the contemporary meridional transport of carbon with southward ocean transport throughout most of the Atlantic basin, and strong equatorward convergence in the Indo-Pacific basins. Both transport estimates suggest a small hemispheric asymmetry with a southward transport of between −0.2 and −0.3 Pg C a−1 across the equator. While the convergence of these two independent estimates is encouraging and suggests that it is now possible to provide relatively tight constraints for the net air-sea CO2 fluxes at the regional basis, both studies are limited by their lack of consideration of long-term changes in the ocean carbon cycle, such as the recent possible stalling in the expected growth of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.Core financial support for this study came from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NAG5-12528 to NG and SMF, with additional support by the U.S. National Science Foundation. M. Gloor was supported by the EBI nd EEE institutes at the University of Leeds. M. Gerber, SM, FJ, and AM thank the European Commission for support through CarboOcean (511176-2) and the NOCES project (EVK2-CT-2001- 00134). TT has been supported by NOAA grant NAO30AR4320179P27

What does airborne LiDAR really measure in upland ecosystems?

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Airborne laser scanning systems (Light Detection And Ranging, LiDAR) are very well suited to the study of landscape and vegetation structure over large extents. Spatially distributed measurements describing the three-dimensional character of landscape surfaces and vegetation architecture can be used to understand eco-geomorphic and ecohydrological processes, and this is particularly pertinent in peatlands given the increasing recognition that these landscapes provide a variety of ecosystem services (water provision, flood mitigation and carbon sequestration). In using LiDAR data for monitoring peatlands, it is important to understand how well peatland surface structures (with fine length scales) can be described. Our approach integrates two laser scanning technologies, namely terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and airborne LiDAR surveys, to assess how effective airborne LiDAR is at measuring these fine-scale microtopographic ecohydrological structures. By combining airborne and TLS, we demonstrate an improved spatial understanding of the signal measured by the airborne LiDAR. Critically, results demonstrate that LiDAR digital surface models are subject to specific errors related to short-sward ecosystem structure, causing the vegetation canopy height and surface-drainage network depth to be underestimated. TLS is shown to be effective at describing these structures over small extents, allowing the information content and accuracy of airborne LiDAR to be understood and quantified more appropriately. These findings have important implications for the appropriate degree of confidence ecohydrologists can apply to such data when using them as a surrogate for field measurements. They also illustrate the need to couple LiDAR data with ground validation data in order to improve assessment of ecohydrological function in such landscapes. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.South West Water LtdUniversity of Exete

Tbx1 regulates Vegfr3 and is required for lymphatic vessel development

Defects in lymphangiogenesis are added to the broad clinical manifestations of DiGeorge syndrome, caused by deletion of the T box transcription factor Tbx1

Acute pain pathways:protocol for a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION: Opioid analgesics are often used to treat moderate-to-severe acute non-cancer pain; however, there is little high-quality evidence to guide clinician prescribing. An essential element to developing evidence-based guidelines is a better understanding of pain management and pain control among individuals experiencing acute pain for various common diagnoses. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This multicentre prospective observational study will recruit 1550 opioid-naïve participants with acute pain seen in diverse clinical settings including primary/urgent care, emergency departments and dental clinics. Participants will be followed for 6 months with the aid of a patient-centred health data aggregating platform that consolidates data from study questionnaires, electronic health record data on healthcare services received, prescription fill data from pharmacies, and activity and sleep data from a Fitbit activity tracker. Participants will be enrolled to represent diverse races and ethnicities and pain conditions, as well as geographical diversity. Data analysis will focus on assessing patients’ patterns of pain and opioid analgesic use, along with other pain treatments; associations between patient and condition characteristics and patient-centred outcomes including resolution of pain, satisfaction with care and long-term use of opioid analgesics; and descriptive analyses of patient management of leftover opioids. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has received approval from IRBs at each site. Results will be made available to participants, funders, the research community and the public. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04509115

Priority setting in health care: Lessons from the experiences of eight countries

All health care systems face problems of justice and efficiency related to setting priorities for allocating a limited pool of resources to a population. Because many of the central issues are the same in all systems, the United States and other countries can learn from the successes and failures of countries that have explicitly addressed the question of health care priorities

Population-based study of genetic variation in individuals with autism spectrum disorders from Croatia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Genome-wide studies on autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) have mostly focused on large-scale population samples, but examination of rare variations in isolated populations may provide additional insights into the disease pathogenesis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>As a first step in the genetic analysis of ASD in Croatia, we characterized genetic variation in a sample of 103 subjects with ASD and 203 control individuals, who were genotyped using the Illumina HumanHap550 BeadChip. We analyzed the genetic diversity of the Croatian population and its relationship to other populations, the degree of relatedness via Runs of Homozygosity (ROHs), and the distribution of large (>500 Kb) copy number variations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Combining the Croatian cohort with several previously published populations in the FastME analysis (an alternative to Neighbor Joining) revealed that Croatian subjects cluster, as expected, with Southern Europeans; in addition, individuals from the same geographic region within Europe cluster together. Whereas Croatian subjects could be separated from a sample of healthy control subjects of European origin from North America, Croatian ASD cases and controls are well mixed. A comparison of runs of homozygosity indicated that the number and the median length of regions of homozygosity are higher for ASD subjects than for controls (p = 6 × 10^-3). Furthermore, analysis of copy number variants found a higher frequency of large chromosomal rearrangements (>2 Mb) in ASD cases (5/103) than in ethnically matched control subjects (1/197, p = 0.019).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our findings illustrate the remarkable utility of high-density genotype data for subjects from a limited geographic area in dissecting genetic heterogeneity with respect to population and disease related variation.</p

Diversity and carbon storage across the tropical forest biome

Tropical forests are global centres of biodiversity and carbon storage. Many tropical countries aspire to protect forest to fulfil biodiversity and climate mitigation policy targets, but the conservation strategies needed to achieve these two functions depend critically on the tropical forest tree diversity-carbon storage relationship. Assessing this relationship is challenging due to the scarcity of inventories where carbon stocks in aboveground biomass and species identifications have been simultaneously and robustly quantified. Here, we compile a unique pan-tropical dataset of 360 plots located in structurally intact old-growth closed-canopy forest, surveyed using standardised methods, allowing a multi-scale evaluation of diversity-carbon relationships in tropical forests. Diversity-carbon relationships among all plots at 1 ha scale across the tropics are absent, and within continents are either weak (Asia) or absent (Amazonia, Africa). A weak positive relationship is detectable within 1 ha plots, indicating that diversity effects in tropical forests may be scale dependent. The absence of clear diversity-carbon relationships at scales relevant to conservation planning means that carbon-centred conservation strategies will inevitably miss many high diversity ecosystems. As tropical forests can have any combination of tree diversity and carbon stocks both require explicit consideration when optimising policies to manage tropical carbon and biodiversity.Additional co-authors: Kofi Affum-Baffoe, Shin-ichiro Aiba, Everton Cristo de Almeida, Edmar Almeida de Oliveira, Patricia Alvarez-Loayza, Esteban Álvarez Dávila, Ana Andrade, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Peter Ashton, Gerardo A. Aymard C., Timothy R. Baker, Michael Balinga, Lindsay F. Banin, Christopher Baraloto, Jean-Francois Bastin, Nicholas Berry, Jan Bogaert, Damien Bonal, Frans Bongers, Roel Brienen, José Luís C. Camargo, Carlos Cerón, Victor Chama Moscoso, Eric Chezeaux, Connie J. Clark, Álvaro Cogollo Pacheco, James A. Comiskey, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado, Greta Dargie, Stuart J. Davies, Charles De Canniere, Marie Noel Djuikouo K., Jean-Louis Doucet, Terry L. Erwin, Javier Silva Espejo, Corneille E. N. Ewango, Sophie Fauset, Ted R. Feldpausch, Rafael Herrera, Martin Gilpin, Emanuel Gloor, Jefferson S. Hall, David J. Harris, Terese B. Hart, Kuswata Kartawinata, Lip Khoon Kho, Kanehiro Kitayama, Susan G. W. Laurance, William F. Laurance, Miguel E. Leal, Thomas Lovejoy, Jon C. Lovett, Faustin Mpanya Lukasu, Jean-Remy Makana, Yadvinder Malhi, Leandro Maracahipes, Beatriz S. Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon Junior, Andrew R. Marshall, Paulo S. Morandi, John Tshibamba Mukendi, Jaques Mukinzi, Reuben Nilus, Percy Núñez Vargas, Nadir C. Pallqui Camacho, Guido Pardo, Marielos Peña-Claros, Pascal Pétronelli, Georgia C. Pickavance, Axel Dalberg Poulsen, John R. Poulsen, Richard B. Primack, Hari Priyadi, Carlos A. Quesada, Jan Reitsma, Maxime Réjou-Méchain, Zorayda Restrepo, Ervan Rutishauser, Kamariah Abu Salim, Rafael P. Salomão, Ismayadi Samsoedin, Douglas Sheil, Rodrigo Sierra, Marcos Silveira, J. W. Ferry Slik, Lisa Steel, Hermann Taedoumg, Sylvester Tan, John W. Terborgh, Sean C. Thomas, Marisol Toledo, Peter M. Umunay, Luis Valenzuela Gamarra, Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira, Vincent A. Vos, Ophelia Wang, Simon Willcock & Lise Zemagh

High aboveground carbon stock of African tropical montane forests

Tropical forests store 40-50 per cent of terrestrial vegetation carbon(1). However, spatial variations in aboveground live tree biomass carbon (AGC) stocks remain poorly understood, in particular in tropical montane forests(2). Owing to climatic and soil changes with increasing elevation(3), AGC stocks are lower in tropical montane forests compared with lowland forests(2). Here we assemble and analyse a dataset of structurally intact old-growth forests (AfriMont) spanning 44 montane sites in 12 African countries. We find that montane sites in the AfriMont plot network have a mean AGC stock of 149.4 megagrams of carbon per hectare (95% confidence interval 137.1-164.2), which is comparable to lowland forests in the African Tropical Rainforest Observation Network(4) and about 70 per cent and 32 per cent higher than averages from plot networks in montane(2,5,6) and lowland(7) forests in the Neotropics, respectively. Notably, our results are two-thirds higher than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change default values for these forests in Africa(8). We find that the low stem density and high abundance of large trees of African lowland forests(4) is mirrored in the montane forests sampled. This carbon store is endangered: we estimate that 0.8 million hectares of old-growth African montane forest have been lost since 2000. We provide country-specific montane forest AGC stock estimates modelled from our plot network to help to guide forest conservation and reforestation interventions. Our findings highlight the need for conserving these biodiverse(9,10) and carbon-rich ecosystems. The aboveground carbon stock of a montane African forest network is comparable to that of a lowland African forest network and two-thirds higher than default values for these montane forests.Peer reviewe