Three essays on automation, trade, and inequality

This dissertation investigates the effects of changes in technologies and trade-related policies on income inequality. The first chapter shows that an advancement in labor saving technologies, known as automation, raises the agglomeration of economic activity in large cities and increases wage inequality across regions. I show novel stylized facts about the relationship between city size and the routineness of tasks performed by workers. I develop a general equilibrium model of a spatial economy where automation affects the type of tasks performed by workers and is related to a firm's choice of production location. The model generates several predictions that are consistent with stylized facts and existing empirical evidence: larger cities have greater agglomerations of firms and grow larger when firms can automate more tasks in the production process. The model predicts that an increase in automation raises wage dispersion between larger and smaller cities. A 20% rise in automation increases wages in the top decile of largest cities by about 8% and lowers wages in smaller cities by about 2-8% and hence widens the wage gap by about 10 to 16 %. The second chapter investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on the intensive and extensive margin of trade, and on income inequality within a country. It finds that the greater volatility in exchange rates lowers trade margins and income inequality. I derive testable predictions regarding the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade margins at the firm level and on income distribution at the industry level. I empirically test these predictions using firm-level microdata. Empirical results provide clear support in favor of the model's predictions about the effects of volatility on trade margins. Finally, in the third chapter, my coauthors and I investigate the effect of Bangladesh’s graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status on the price of insulin, an essential medicine for diabetes, and on households’ welfare and poverty. We find that upon Bangladesh’s graduation from LDC status, the price of insulin could rise as much as 11 times the current price for patented insulin if an unregulated monopoly is allowed. This would significantly reduce welfare and increase the incidence of poverty for households with members suffering from diabetes

Cytogenetics and Consequences of Polyploidization on Different Biotic-Abiotic Stress Tolerance and the Potential Mechanisms Involved

The application of polyploidy in sustainable agriculture has already brought much appreciation among researchers. Polyploidy may occur naturally or can be induced in the laboratory using chemical or gaseous agents and results in complete chromosome nondisjunction. This comprehensive review described the potential of polyploidization on plants, especially its role in crop improvement for enhanced production and host-plant resistance development against pests and diseases. An in-depth investigation on techniques used in the induction of polyploidy, cytogenetic evaluation methods of different ploidy levels, application, and current research trends is also presented. Ongoing research has mainly aimed to bring the recurrence in polyploidy, which is usually detected by flow cytometry, chromosome counting, and cytogenetic techniques such as fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) and genomic in situ hybridization (GISH). Polyploidy can bring about positive consequences in the growth and yield attributes of crops, making them more tolerant to abiotic and biotic stresses. However, the unexpected change in chromosome set and lack of knowledge on the mechanism of stress alleviation is hindering the application of polyploidy on a large scale. Moreover, a lack of cost-benefit analysis and knowledge gaps on the socio-economic implication are predominant. Further research on polyploidy coupling with modern genomic technologies will help to bring real-world market prospects in the era of changing climate. This review on polyploidy provides a solid foundation to do next-generation research on crop improvement

Product Development Partnerships: Case studies of a new mechanism for health technology innovation

There is a continuing need for new health technologies to address the disease burdens of developing countries. In the last decade Product Development Partnerships (PDP) have emerged that are making important contributions to the development of these technologies. PDPs are a form of public private partnerships that focus on health technology development. PDPs reflect the current phase in the history of health technology development: the Era of Partnerships, in which the public and private sectors have found productive ways to collaborate. Successful innovation depends on addressing six determinants of innovation. We examine four case studies of PDPs and show how they have addressed the six determinants to achieve success

A Multicentre Study of Shigella Diarrhoea in Six Asian Countries: Disease Burden, Clinical Manifestations, and Microbiology

BACKGROUND: The burden of shigellosis is greatest in resource-poor countries. Although this diarrheal disease has been thought to cause considerable morbidity and mortality in excess of 1,000,000 deaths globally per year, little recent data are available to guide intervention strategies in Asia. We conducted a prospective, population-based study in six Asian countries to gain a better understanding of the current disease burden, clinical manifestations, and microbiology of shigellosis in Asia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Over 600,000 persons of all ages residing in Bangladesh, China, Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand were included in the surveillance. Shigella was isolated from 2,927 (5%) of 56,958 diarrhoea episodes detected between 2000 and 2004. The overall incidence of treated shigellosis was 2.1 episodes per 1,000 residents per year in all ages and 13.2/1,000/y in children under 60 months old. Shigellosis incidence increased after age 40 years. S. flexneri was the most frequently isolated Shigella species (1,976/2,927 [68%]) in all sites except in Thailand, where S. sonnei was most frequently detected (124/146 [85%]). S. flexneri serotypes were highly heterogeneous in their distribution from site to site, and even from year to year. PCR detected ipaH, the gene encoding invasion plasmid antigen H in 33% of a sample of culture-negative stool specimens. The majority of S. flexneri isolates in each site were resistant to amoxicillin and cotrimoxazole. Ciprofloxacin-resistant S. flexneri isolates were identified in China (18/305 [6%]), Pakistan (8/242 [3%]), and Vietnam (5/282 [2%]). CONCLUSIONS: Shigella appears to be more ubiquitous in Asian impoverished populations than previously thought, and antibiotic-resistant strains of different species and serotypes have emerged. Focusing on prevention of shigellosis could exert an immediate benefit first by substantially reducing the overall diarrhoea burden in the region and second by preventing the spread of panresistant Shigella strains. The heterogeneous distribution of Shigella species and serotypes suggest that multivalent or cross-protective Shigella vaccines will be needed to prevent shigellosis in Asia

In quest of a systematic framework for unifying and defining nanoscience

This article proposes a systematic framework for unifying and defining nanoscience based on historic first principles and step logic that led to a “central paradigm” (i.e., unifying framework) for traditional elemental/small-molecule chemistry. As such, a Nanomaterials classification roadmap is proposed, which divides all nanomatter into Category I: discrete, well-defined and Category II: statistical, undefined nanoparticles. We consider only Category I, well-defined nanoparticles which are >90% monodisperse as a function of Critical Nanoscale Design Parameters (CNDPs) defined according to: (a) size, (b) shape, (c) surface chemistry, (d) flexibility, and (e) elemental composition. Classified as either hard (H) (i.e., inorganic-based) or soft (S) (i.e., organic-based) categories, these nanoparticles were found to manifest pervasive atom mimicry features that included: (1) a dominance of zero-dimensional (0D) core–shell nanoarchitectures, (2) the ability to self-assemble or chemically bond as discrete, quantized nanounits, and (3) exhibited well-defined nanoscale valencies and stoichiometries reminiscent of atom-based elements. These discrete nanoparticle categories are referred to as hard or soft particle nanoelements. Many examples describing chemical bonding/assembly of these nanoelements have been reported in the literature. We refer to these hard:hard (H-n:H-n), soft:soft (S-n:S-n), or hard:soft (H-n:S-n) nanoelement combinations as nanocompounds. Due to their quantized features, many nanoelement and nanocompound categories are reported to exhibit well-defined nanoperiodic property patterns. These periodic property patterns are dependent on their quantized nanofeatures (CNDPs) and dramatically influence intrinsic physicochemical properties (i.e., melting points, reactivity/self-assembly, sterics, and nanoencapsulation), as well as important functional/performance properties (i.e., magnetic, photonic, electronic, and toxicologic properties). We propose this perspective as a modest first step toward more clearly defining synthetic nanochemistry as well as providing a systematic framework for unifying nanoscience. With further progress, one should anticipate the evolution of future nanoperiodic table(s) suitable for predicting important risk/benefit boundaries in the field of nanoscience

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens