Quantifying erosion hazards and economic damage to critical infrastructure in river catchments: Impact of a warming climate

Climate change is projected to cause considerable pressure on our environment and communities. In particular, an increase in flooding and extreme erosion events is foreseeable as a result of an anticipated increase in the frequency and severity of storms. In the absence of timely and strategic intervention, climate change is taking us closer to more uncertain (non-linear, stochastic) and potentially more catastrophic climatic impacts. This paper develops a state-of-the-art modelling framework to assess the economic impact of erosion hazards on critical infrastructure and evaluate their vulnerability and resilience to differing storm regimes. This framework is trialled on a UK town (Cockermouth, NW England) that has experienced significant storm-related erosion and flood damage in recent years, highlighting its ability to determine current and future erosion hazard to critical infrastructure. A hydro-sedimentary model is used to simulate fluvial and hillslope sediment erosion and deposition caused by extreme storms within river catchments (sheet, rill, gully and channel bank and bed erosion). The model is applied for current climate conditions and for two future epochs (2021–2040 & 2061–2080) to assess changing erosion hazard to critical infrastructure. Climate conditions for the two epochs are obtained using the UKCP18 high resolution realisation projections under emission scenario RCP8.5. The economic loss caused by these hazards is projected based on new, non-linear depth-cost curves derived from previous assessments. The results show that: 1) due to a warming climate, total rainfall in the Cockermouth area (and likely across the UK) may be higher for all storm durations and annual exceedance probabilities, until epoch 2061–2080 when the rainfall regime may shift towards shorter duration events with higher rainfall and longer duration events with less rainfall; 2) the total area that undergoes flooding, erosion and sediment deposition, and the magnitude of the hazard, may increase as the climate shifts; 3) the economic damage caused by erosion and deposition is positively related to rainfall total, and the highest costs are likely to be associated with damage caused to bridges (£102-130 million), followed by sediment deposition in the urban fabric (£9-82 million), and erosion damage to agricultural land (£16-26 million), buildings (£0.4-18 million) and roads (£0.4-4 million); and 4) the Estimated Annual Damage costs suggest that investment in bridges (£4-6 million) in the Cockermouth area is required now to ensure their resilience to extreme storm events, and interventions are likely to be needed within the next 20 years to prevent high economic costs associated with significant sediment deposition in the urban fabric (£0.3-4 million) and damage to roads (£0.08-0.1 million) and agricultural land (£0.6-2 million). This new framework can help support operational (immediate) and strategic (medium to long term i.e. 10+ years) erosion control decision making through the provision of an assessment of the scale and consequences of erosion

White matter damage in frontotemporal dementia and Alzheimer's disease measured by diffusion MRI

Frontotemporal dementia (FTD) and Alzheimer's disease are sometimes difficult to differentiate clinically because of overlapping symptoms. Using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) measurements of fractional anisotropy (FA) can be useful in distinguishing the different patterns of white matter degradation between the two dementias. In this study, we performed MRI scans in a 4 Tesla MRI machine including T1-weighted structural images and diffusion tensor images in 18 patients with FTD, 18 patients with Alzheimer's disease and 19 cognitively normal (CN) controls. FA was measured selectively in specific fibre tracts (including corpus callosum, cingulum, uncinate and corticospinal tracts) as well as globally in a voxel-by-voxel analysis. Patients with FTD were associated with reductions of FA in frontal and temporal regions including the anterior corpus callosum (P < 0.001), bilateral anterior (left P < 0.001; right P = 0.005), descending (left P < 0.001; right P = 0.003) cingulum tracts, and uncinate tracts (left P < 0.001; right P = 0.005), compared to controls. Patients with Alzheimer's disease were associated with reductions of FA in parietal, temporal and frontal regions including the left anterior (P = 0.003) and posterior (P = 0.002) cingulum tracts, bilateral descending cingulum tracts (P < 0.001) and left uncinate tracts (P < 0.001) compared to controls. When compared with Alzheimer's disease, FTD was associated with greater reductions of FA in frontal brain regions, whereas no region in Alzheimer's disease showed greater reductions of FA when compared to FTD. In conclusion, the regional patterns of anisotropy reduction in FTD and Alzheimer's disease compared to controls suggest a characteristic distribution of white matter degradation in each disease. Moreover, the white matter degradation seems to be more prominent in FTD than in Alzheimer's disease. Taken together, the results suggest that white matter degradation measured with DTI may improve the diagnostic differentiation between FTD and Alzheimer's disease

Stochastic assessment of climate impacts on hydrology and geomorphology of semiarid headwater basins using a physically based model

Hydrologic and geomorphic responses of watersheds to changes in climate are difficult to assess due to projection uncertainties and nonlinearity of the processes that are involved. Yet such assessments are increasingly needed and call for mechanistic approaches within a probabilistic framework. This study employs an integrated hydrology‐geomorphology model, the Triangulated Irregular Network‐based Real‐time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS)‐Erosion, to analyze runoff and erosion sensitivity of seven semiarid headwater basins to projected climate conditions. The Advanced Weather Generator is used to produce two climate ensembles representative of the historic and future climate conditions for the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed located in the southwest U.S. The former ensemble incorporates the stochastic variability of the observed climate, while the latter includes the stochastic variability and the uncertainty of multimodel climate change projections. The ensembles are used as forcing for tRIBS‐Erosion that simulates runoff and sediment basin responses leading to probabilistic inferences of future changes. The results show that annual precipitation for the area is generally expected to decrease in the future, with lower hourly intensities and similar daily rates. The smaller hourly rainfall generally results in lower mean annual runoff. However, a non‐negligible probability of runoff increase in the future is identified, resulting from stochastic combinations of years with low and high runoff. On average, the magnitudes of mean and extreme events of sediment yield are expected to decrease with a very high probability. Importantly, the projected variability of annual sediment transport for the future conditions is comparable to that for the historic conditions, despite the fact that the former account for a much wider range of possible climate “alternatives.” This result demonstrates that the historic natural climate variability of sediment yield is already so high, that it is comparable to the variability for a projected and highly uncertain future. Additionally, changes in the scaling relationship between specific sediment yield/runoff and drainage basin area are detected.Key PointsHillslope erosion and runoff are simulated with a hydrogeomorphic modelA stochastic approach is used to assess change in runoff and sediment yieldStochastic variability makes more uncertain sediment yield than runoff changesPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/111188/1/jgrf20370-sup-0003-TableS2.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/111188/2/jgrf20370-sup-0001-Readme.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/111188/3/jgrf20370-sup-0002-TableS1.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/111188/4/jgrf20370.pd

Mother, Monster, Mrs, I:A critical evaluation of gendered naming strategies in English sentencing remarks of women who kill

In this article, we take a novel approach to analysing English sentencing remarks in cases of women who kill. We apply computational, quantitative, and qualitative methods from corpus linguistics to analyse recurrent patterns in a collection of English Crown Court sentencing remarks from 2012 to 2015, where a female defendant was convicted of a homicide offence. We detail the ways in which women who kill are referred to by judges in the sentencing remarks, providing frequency information on pronominal, nominative, and categorising naming strategies. In discussion of the various patterns of preference both across and within these categories (e.g. pronoun vs. nomination, title + surname vs. forename + surname), we remark upon the identities constructed through the references provided. In so doing, we: (1) quantify the extent to which members of the judiciary invoke patriarchal values and gender stereotypes within their sentencing remarks to construct female defendants, and (2) identify particular identities and narratives that emerge within sentencing remarks for women who kill. We find that judges refer to women who kill in a number of ways that systematically create dichotomous narratives of degraded victims or dehumanised monsters. We also identify marked absences in naming strategies, notably: physical identification normally associated with narrativization of women’s experiences; and the first person pronoun, reflecting omissions of women’s own voices and narratives of their lived experiences in the courtroom

Increasing vegetable intakes: rationale and systematic review of published interventions

Purpose While the health benefits of a high fruit and vegetable consumption are well known and considerable work has attempted to improve intakes, increasing evidence also recognises a distinction between fruit and vegetables, both in their impacts on health and in consumption patterns. Increasing work suggests health benefits from a high consumption specifically of vegetables, yet intakes remain low, and barriers to increasing intakes are prevalent making intervention difficult. A systematic review was undertaken to identify from the published literature all studies reporting an intervention to increase intakes of vegetables as a distinct food group. Methods Databases—PubMed, PsychInfo and Medline—were searched over all years of records until April 2015 using pre-specified terms. Results Our searches identified 77 studies, detailing 140 interventions, of which 133 (81 %) interventions were conducted in children. Interventions aimed to use or change hedonic factors, such as taste, liking and familiarity (n = 72), use or change environmental factors (n = 39), use or change cognitive factors (n = 19), or a combination of strategies (n = 10). Increased vegetable acceptance, selection and/or consumption were reported to some degree in 116 (83 %) interventions, but the majority of effects seem small and inconsistent. Conclusions Greater percent success is currently found from environmental, educational and multi-component interventions, but publication bias is likely, and long-term effects and cost-effectiveness are rarely considered. A focus on long-term benefits and sustained behaviour change is required. Certain population groups are also noticeably absent from the current list of tried interventions

Common variants at ABCA7, MS4A6A/MS4A4E, EPHA1, CD33 and CD2AP are associated with Alzheimer's disease

We sought to identify new susceptibility loci for Alzheimer's disease through a staged association study (GERAD+) and by testing suggestive loci reported by the Alzheimer's Disease Genetic Consortium (ADGC) in a companion paper. We undertook a combined analysis of four genome-wide association datasets (stage 1) and identified ten newly associated variants with P ≤ 1 × 10−5. We tested these variants for association in an independent sample (stage 2). Three SNPs at two loci replicated and showed evidence for association in a further sample (stage 3). Meta-analyses of all data provided compelling evidence that ABCA7 (rs3764650, meta P = 4.5 × 10−17; including ADGC data, meta P = 5.0 × 10−21) and the MS4A gene cluster (rs610932, meta P = 1.8 × 10−14; including ADGC data, meta P = 1.2 × 10−16) are new Alzheimer's disease susceptibility loci. We also found independent evidence for association for three loci reported by the ADGC, which, when combined, showed genome-wide significance: CD2AP (GERAD+, P = 8.0 × 10−4; including ADGC data, meta P = 8.6 × 10−9), CD33 (GERAD+, P = 2.2 × 10−4; including ADGC data, meta P = 1.6 × 10−9) and EPHA1 (GERAD+, P = 3.4 × 10−4; including ADGC data, meta P = 6.0 × 10−10)

The Infant KIdney Dialysis and Utrafiltration (I-KID) Study: A Stepped-Wedge Cluster-Randomized Study in Infants, Comparing Peritoneal Dialysis, Continuous Venovenous Hemofiltration, and Newcastle Infant Dialysis Ultrafiltration System, a Novel Infant Hemodialysis Device

Objectives: Renal replacement therapy (RRT) options are limited for small babies because of lack of available technology. We investigated the precision of ultrafiltration, biochemical clearances, clinical efficacy, outcomes, and safety profile for a novel non-Conformité Européenne-marked hemodialysis device for babies under 8 kg, the Newcastle Infant Dialysis Ultrafiltration System (NIDUS), compared with the current options of peritoneal dialysis (PD) or continuous venovenous hemofiltration (CVVH). Design: Nonblinded cluster-randomized cross-sectional stepped-wedge design with four periods, three sequences, and two clusters per sequence. Setting: Clusters were six U.K. PICUs. Patients: Babies less than 8 kg requiring RRT for fluid overload or biochemical disturbance. Interventions: In controls, RRT was delivered by PD or CVVH, and in interventions, NIDUS was used. The primary outcome was precision of ultrafiltration compared with prescription; secondary outcomes included biochemical clearances. Measurements and Main Results: At closure, 97 participants were recruited from the six PICUs (62 control and 35 intervention). The primary outcome, obtained from 62 control and 21 intervention patients, showed that ultrafiltration with NIDUS was closer to that prescribed than with control: sd controls, 18.75, intervention, 2.95 (mL/hr); adjusted ratio, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.03–0.71; p = 0.018. Creatinine clearance was smallest and least variable for PD (mean, sd) = (0.08, 0.03) mL/min/kg, larger for NIDUS (0.46, 0.30), and largest for CVVH (1.20, 0.72). Adverse events were reported in all groups. In this critically ill population with multiple organ failure, mortality was lowest for PD and highest for CVVH, with NIDUS in between. Conclusions: NIDUS delivers accurate, controllable fluid removal and adequate clearances, indicating that it has important potential alongside other modalities for infant RRT