Physical controls on the scale-dependence of ensemble streamflow forecast dispersion

Abstract. The accuracy of ensemble streamflow forecasts (ESFs) is impacted by the propagation of uncertainty associated with quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) through the physical processes occurring in the basin. In this study, we consider consistent ESFs (i.e., observations and ensemble members are equally likely) and we study the effect of basin area (A) and antecedent rainfall (AR) on the ESF dispersion, a metric of flood forecast skill. Results from a set of numerical experiments indicate that: (i) for small basins (≲180 km2), ESF dispersion is mainly dominated by the runoff generation process and does not depend on the basin size A; (ii) for larger areas, ESF dispersion decreases with A according to a log-linear relation due to the decreasing variability of ensemble QPFs and, possibly, to the channel routing process. In addition, we found that, regardless the basin size, the ESF dispersion decreases as AR increases, and that the influence of AR is larger for basins with fast response times. Physical controls (land cover, soil texture and morphometric features) on the analyzed basin response confirm these interpretations

Vegetation Dynamics within the North American Monsoon Region

Abstract The North American monsoon (NAM) leads to a large increase in summer rainfall and a seasonal change in vegetation in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. Understanding the interactions between NAM rainfall and vegetation dynamics is essential for improved climate and hydrologic prediction. In this work, the authors analyze long-term vegetation dynamics over the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) tier I domain (20°–35°N, 105°–115°W) using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) semimonthly composites at 8-km resolution from 1982 to 2006. The authors derive ecoregions with similar vegetation dynamics using principal component analysis and cluster identification. Based on ecoregion and pixel-scale analyses, this study quantifies the seasonal and interannual vegetation variations, their dependence on geographic position and terrain attributes, and the presence of long-term trends through a set of phenological vegetation metrics. Results reveal that seasonal biomass productivity, as captured by the time-integrated NDVI (TINDVI), is an excellent means to synthesize vegetation dynamics. High TINDVI occurs for ecosystems with a short period of intense greening tuned to the NAM or with a prolonged period of moderate greenness continuing after the NAM. These cases represent different plant strategies (deciduous versus evergreen) that can be adjusted along spatial gradients to cope with seasonal water availability. Long-term trends in TINDVI may also indicate changing conditions favoring ecosystems that intensively use NAM rainfall for rapid productivity, as opposed to delayed and moderate greening. A persistence of these trends could potentially result in the spatial reorganization of ecosystems in the NAM region

Distributed hydrologic modeling of a sparsely monitored basin in Sardinia, Italy, through hydrometeorological downscaling

The water resources and hydrologic extremes in Mediterranean basins are heavily influenced by climate variability. Modeling these watersheds is difficult due to the complex nature of the hydrologic response as well as the sparseness of hydrometeorological observations. In this work, we present a strategy to calibrate a distributed hydrologic model, known as TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), in the Rio Mannu basin (RMB), a medium-sized watershed (472.5 km2) located in an agricultural area in Sardinia, Italy. In the RMB, precipitation, streamflow and meteorological data were collected within different historical periods and at diverse temporal resolutions. We designed two statistical tools for downscaling precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data to create the hourly, high-resolution forcing for the hydrologic model from daily records. Despite the presence of several sources of uncertainty in the observations and model parameterization, the use of the disaggregated forcing led to good calibration and validation performances for the tRIBS model, when daily discharge observations were available. The methodology proposed here can be also used to disaggregate outputs of climate models and conduct high-resolution hydrologic simulations with the goal of quantifying the impacts of climate change on water resources and the frequency of hydrologic extremes within medium-sized basins

Semiarid watershed response in central New Mexico and its sensitivity to climate variability and change

Hydrologic processes in the semiarid regions of the Southwest United States are considered to be highly susceptible to variations in temperature and precipitation characteristics due to the effects of climate change. Relatively little is known about the potential impacts of climate change on the basin hydrologic response, namely streamflow, evapotranspiration and recharge, in the region. In this study, we present the development and application of a continuous, semi-distributed watershed model for climate change studies in semiarid basins of the Southwest US. Our objective is to capture hydrologic processes in large watersheds, while accounting for the spatial and temporal variations of climate forcing and basin properties in a simple fashion. We apply the model to the Río Salado basin in central New Mexico since it exhibits both a winter and summer precipitation regime and has a historical streamflow record for model testing purposes. Subsequently, we use a sequence of climate change scenarios that capture observed trends for winter and summer precipitation, as well as their interaction with higher temperatures, to perform long-term ensemble simulations of the basin response. Results of the modeling exercise indicate that precipitation uncertainty is amplified in the hydrologic response, in particular for processes that depend on a soil saturation threshold. We obtained substantially different hydrologic sensitivities for winter and summer precipitation ensembles, indicating a greater sensitivity to more intense summer storms as compared to more frequent winter events. In addition, the impact of changes in precipitation characteristics overwhelmed the effects of increased temperature in the study basin. Nevertheless, combined trends in precipitation and temperature yield a more sensitive hydrologic response throughout the year

Controls on runoff generation and scale-dependence in a distributed hydrologic model

International audienceHydrologic response in natural catchments is controlled by a set of complex interactions between storm properties, basin characteristics and antecedent wetness conditions. This study investigates the transient runoff response to spatially-uniform storms of varying properties using a distributed model of the coupled surface-subsurface system, which treats heterogeneities in topography, soils and vegetation. We demonstrate the control that the partitioning into multiple runoff mechanisms (infiltration-excess, saturation-excess, perched return flow and groundwater exfiltration) has on nonlinearities in the rainfall-runoff transformation and its scale-dependence. Antecedent wetness imposed through a distributed water table position is varied to illustrate its effect on runoff generation. Results indicate that transitions observed in basin flood response (magnitude, timing and volume) can be explained by shifts in the surface-subsurface partitioning. An analysis of the spatial organization of runoff production also shows that multiple mechanisms have specific catchment niches and can occur simultaneously in the basin. In addition, catchment scale plays an important role in the distribution of runoff production as basin characteristics (soils, vegetation, topography and initial wetness) are varied with basin area. For example, we illustrate how storm characteristics and antecedent wetness play a dramatic role in the scaling properties of the catchment runoff ratio

Turbulence structure of a model seagrass meadow

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 1998.Includes bibliographical references (p. 235-239).A laboratory study of the hydrodynamics of a seagrass meadow was conducted to investigate the effect of water depth and velocity variations during a tidal cycle on the mean and turbulent velocity fields in and above the vegetation layer. The principal goal was to characterize the turbulence structure of a depth-limited canopy, a gap that presently exists in the knowledge concerning the interaction of a unidirectional flow with an assemblage of plants. The experiments were carried out in an open channel flume with a model seagrass canopy. Proper modeling of the system for both the geometric and dynamic behavior of natural Zostera marina communities allows the results to be extrapolated to the conditions in a coastal, tidal meadow. The results also serve as an important comparative case to the characterization of turbulence within atmospheric plant canopies. The laboratory study included the measurement of the mean and turbulent velocity fields with the use of an acoustic Doppler velocimeter and a laser Doppler velocimeter. Standard turbulence parameters were evaluated including the velocity moments, the turbulence spectra. the turbulent kinetic energy budget and the quadrant distribution of the Reynolds stress. Each of these provided a means of describing the effect of submergence depth and the degree of canopy waving (monami) on the transport of momentum and mass between the canopy and its surrounding fluid environment. In addition. surface slope measurements were made with surface displacement gauges. the plant motion was quantified using video and camera images. and the canopy morphology was recorded from measurements taken from a random sampling of the model plants. The investigation showed a clear link between the shear generated eddies arising at the interface of the canopy and the surface layer and the vertical exchange of momentum. the plant motion characteristics and the turbulence time and length scales. The turbulence field within the seagrass meadow was composed of a shear-generated turbulence zone near the canopy height and a wake-generated zone near the bed In addition. a mean flow due to the pressure gradient from the water surface slope created a region of secondary maxima in the mean velocity profile near the bed. The parameter determining the seagrass turbulence structure was found to be the characteristic depth (H' h). defined such that the effective canopy height. reflects the plant deflection. Across the range of values considered for H/h. the flow characteristics showed a clear transition from a confined to an unbounded canopy flow. This transition was observed in all the principal turbulence parameters. From this analysis. a critical surface layer depth governing the transition between the two extreme canopy flow conditions was identified as half the effective canopy height. H'h = 1.50.by Ernique Rafael Vivoni Gallart.S.M

On groundwater fluctuations, evapotranspiration, and understory removal in riparian corridors

This study utilizes 7 years of continuously monitored groundwater-level data from four sites along the Río Grande riparian corridor in central New Mexico to calculate evapotranspiration from groundwater and assess impacts of understory vegetation removal during a restoration project. Diurnal groundwater fluctuation measurements were used to compare the well-known White method for estimating evapotranspiration from groundwater (ETg) to colocated measurements of total riparian evapotranspiration (ET) measured using the eddy covariance method. On average, the two methods were linearly correlated and had similar variability, but groundwater hydrograph estimates of ET g tended to be larger than tower ET estimates. Average ETg estimates for two wells at one site ranged from 91.45% to 164.77% of measured tower ET estimates, but were also shown to range from 57.35% to 254.34% at another site. Comparisons between the methods improved with deeper water tables, reduced groundwater and river connectivity, and where soil profiles were dominated by coarse-sized particles. Using a range of texture-based estimates of specific yield (Sy) with water table position improves the field application of the White method. River-induced fluctuations in groundwater increased the variability of ETg measurements. Removal of understory vegetation at one site resulted in a small but significant reduction in diel groundwater fluctuation amplitude of 19-21%. Caution is required when understory vegetation removal is used as a means to decrease overall riparian ET. Diel groundwater fluctuation amplitudes can be useful in gauging the hydrological effects of vegetation removal. Riparian groundwater hydrographs are critical to investigating the hydrologic connectivity between river and shallow groundwater, the temporal patterns of vegetative consumption, and monitoring changes to the vegetation community. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union

Hydrologic modeling using triangulated irregular networks : terrain representation, flood forecasting and catchment response

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2003.Includes bibliographical references.Numerical models are modern tools for capturing the spatial and temporal variability in the land-surface hydrologic response to rainfall and understanding the physical relations between internal watershed processes and observed streamflow. This thesis presents the development and application of a distributed hydrologic model distinguished by its representation of topography through a triangulated irregular network (TIN) and its coupling of the surface and subsurface processes leading to the catchment response. As a research tool for hydrologic forecasting and experimentation, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) fully incorporates spatial heterogeneities in basin topography, surface descriptors and hydrometeorological forcing to produce dynamic maps of hydrologic states and fluxes. These capabilities allow investigation of theoretical questions and practical problems in hydrologic science and water resources engineering. Three related themes are developed in this thesis. First, a set of methods are developed for constructing TIN topographic models from raster digital elevation models (DEM) for hydrologic and geomorphic applications. A new approach for representing a steady-state estimate of a particular watershed process within the physical mesh is introduced. Hydrologic comparisons utilizing different terrain models are made to investigate the suitable level of detail required for capturing process dynamics accurately. Second, the TIN-based model is utilized in conjunction with a rainfall forecasting algorithm to assess the space-time flood predictability. For two hydrometeorological case studies, the forecast skill is assessed as a function of rainfall forecast lead time, catchment scale and the spatial variability in the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). Third, the surface and subsurface runoff response in a complex basin is investigated with respect to changes in storm properties and the initial water table position.The partitioning of rainfall into runoff production mechanisms is found to be a causative factor in the nonlinearity and scale-dependence observed in the basin hydrograph response. The model applications presented in this thesis highlight the advantages of TIN- based modeling for hydrologic forecasting and process-oriented studies over complex terrain. In particular, the multi-resolution and multi-scale capabilities are encouraging for a range of applied and scientific problems in catchment hydrology.by Enrique R. Vivoni.Ph.D