Dengue disease surveillance: an updated systematic literature review

Objectives To review the evidence for the application of tools for dengue outbreak prediction/detection and trend monitoring in passive and active disease surveillance systems in order to develop recommendations for endemic countries and identify important research needs. Methods This systematic literature review followed the protocol of a review from 2008, extending the systematic search from January 2007 to February 2013 on PubMed, EMBASE, CDSR, WHOLIS and Lilacs. Data reporting followed the PRISMA statement. The eligibility criteria comprised (i) population at risk of dengue, (ii) dengue disease surveillance, (iii) outcome of surveillance described and (iv) empirical data evaluated. The analysis classified studies based on the purpose of the surveillance programme. The main limitation of the review was expected publication bias. Results A total of 1116 papers were identified of which 36 articles were included in the review. Four cohort-based prospective studies calculated expansion factors demonstrating remarkable levels of underreporting in the surveillance systems. Several studies demonstrated that enhancement methods such as laboratory support, sentinel-based reporting and staff motivation contributed to improvements in dengue reporting. Additional improvements for passive surveillance systems are possible by incorporating simple data forms/entry/electronic-based reporting; defining clear system objectives; performing data analysis at the lowest possible level (e.g. district); seeking regular data feedback. Six studies showed that serotype changes were positively correlated with the number of reported cases or with dengue incidence, with lag times of up to 6 months. Three studies found that data on internet searches and event-based surveillance correlated well with the epidemic curve derived from surveillance data. Conclusions Passive surveillance providing the baseline for outbreak alert should be strengthened and appropriate threshold levels for outbreak alerts investigated. Additional enhancement tools such as syndromic surveillance, laboratory support and motivation strategies can be added. Appropriate alert signals need to be identified and integrated into a risk assessment tool. Shifts in dengue serotypes/genotype or electronic event-based surveillance have also considerable potential as indicator in dengue surveillance. Further research on evidence-based response strategies and cost-effectiveness is needed

The Effects of Previous Misestimation of Task Duration on Estimating Future Task Duration

It is a common time management problem that people underestimate the duration of tasks, which has been termed the "planning fallacy." To overcome this, it has been suggested that people should be informed about how long they previously worked on the same task. This study, however, tests whether previous misestimation also affects the duration estimation of a novel task, even if the feedback is only self-generated. To test this, two groups of participants performed two unrelated, laboratory-based tasks in succession. Learning was manipulated by permitting only the experimental group to retrospectively estimate the duration of the first task before predicting the duration of the second task. Results showed that the experimental group underestimated the duration of the second task less than the control group, which indicates a general kind of learning from previous misestimation. The findings imply that people could be trained to carefully observe how much they misestimate task duration in order to stimulate learning. The findings are discussed in relation to the anchoring account of task duration misestimation and the memory-bias account of the planning fallacy. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York

The return trip effect: Why the return trip often seems to take less time

Three studies confirm the existence of the return trip effect: The return trip often seems shorter than the initial trip, even though the distance traveled and the actual time spent traveling are identical. A pretest shows that people indeed experience a return trip effect regularly, and the effect was found on a bus trip (Study 1), a bicycle trip (Study 2), and when participants watched a video of someone else traveling (Study 3). The return trip effect also existed when another, equidistant route was taken on the return trip, showing that it is not familiarity with the route that causes this effect. Rather, it seems that a violation of expectations causes this effect

Toward unsupervised outbreak detection through visual perception of new patterns

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Statistical algorithms are routinely used to detect outbreaks of well-defined syndromes, such as influenza-like illness. These methods cannot be applied to the detection of emerging diseases for which no preexisting information is available.</p> <p>This paper presents a method aimed at facilitating the detection of outbreaks, when there is no a priori knowledge of the clinical presentation of cases.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The method uses a visual representation of the symptoms and diseases coded during a patient consultation according to the International Classification of Primary Care 2^ndversion (ICPC-2). The surveillance data are transformed into color-coded cells, ranging from white to red, reflecting the increasing frequency of observed signs. They are placed in a graphic reference frame mimicking body anatomy. Simple visual observation of color-change patterns over time, concerning a single code or a combination of codes, enables detection in the setting of interest.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The method is demonstrated through retrospective analyses of two data sets: description of the patients referred to the hospital by their general practitioners (GPs) participating in the French Sentinel Network and description of patients directly consulting at a hospital emergency department (HED).</p> <p>Informative image color-change alert patterns emerged in both cases: the health consequences of the August 2003 heat wave were visualized with GPs' data (but passed unnoticed with conventional surveillance systems), and the flu epidemics, which are routinely detected by standard statistical techniques, were recognized visually with HED data.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Using human visual pattern-recognition capacities to detect the onset of unexpected health events implies a convenient image representation of epidemiological surveillance and well-trained "epidemiology watchers". Once these two conditions are met, one could imagine that the epidemiology watchers could signal epidemiological alerts, based on "image walls" presenting the local, regional and/or national surveillance patterns, with specialized field epidemiologists assigned to validate the signals detected.</p

A comparative study of different model families for the constitutive simulation of viscous clays

The simulation of the viscous behavior of some clays is of high importance in many geotechnical problems. The literature offers a vast amount of constitutive models able to simulate the rate dependence observed on these materials. Although most of thesemodels are calibrated to very similar experimental observations and share similar definitions ofmaterial parameters, some discrepancies of their response have been detected, which are related to their mathematical formulations. In this work, the causes of these discrepancies are carefully studied. To that end, four different model families are analyzed, namely, nonstationary flow surface (NSFS) models, viscoplasticity with overstress function (OVP), viscoplasticity with Norton\u27s power law (NVP), and visco-hypoplasticity (VHP). For the sake of a fair comparison, single constitutive models using the same set of material parameters, and following other requirements, are developed for each model family. Numerical implementations of the four resulting models are performed. Their response at different tests are carefully analyzed through simulation examples and direct examination of their constitutive equations. The set includes some basic tests at isotropic stress states and others as responses envelopes, undrained creep rupture, and an oedometer test with loading, unloading-reloading, creep, and relaxation. The article is concluded with some remarks about the observed discrepancies of these model families

Search for New Physics in e mu X Data at D0 Using Sleuth: A Quasi-Model-Independent Search Strategy for New Physics

We present a quasi-model-independent search for the physics responsible for electroweak symmetry breaking. We define final states to be studied, and construct a rule that identifies a set of relevant variables for any particular final state. A new algorithm ("Sleuth") searches for regions of excess in those variables and quantifies the significance of any detected excess. After demonstrating the sensitivity of the method, we apply it to the semi-inclusive channel e mu X collected in 108 pb^-1 of ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.8 TeV at the D0 experiment during 1992-1996 at the Fermilab Tevatron. We find no evidence of new high p_T physics in this sample.Comment: 23 pages, 12 figures. Submitted to Physical Review

Measurement of the top quark mass using the matrix element technique in dilepton final states

We present a measurement of the top quark mass in pp¯ collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. The data were collected by the D0 experiment corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9.7  fb−1. The matrix element technique is applied to tt¯ events in the final state containing leptons (electrons or muons) with high transverse momenta and at least two jets. The calibration of the jet energy scale determined in the lepton+jets final state of tt¯ decays is applied to jet energies. This correction provides a substantial reduction in systematic uncertainties. We obtain a top quark mass of mt=173.93±1.84  GeV

Ratio of the Isolated Photon Cross Sections at \sqrt{s} = 630 and 1800 GeV

The inclusive cross section for production of isolated photons has been measured in \pbarp collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 630$ GeV with the \D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. The photons span a transverse energy ($E_T$) range from 7-49 GeV and have pseudorapidity $|\eta| < 2.5$. This measurement is combined with to previous \D0 result at $\sqrt{s} = 1800$ GeV to form a ratio of the cross sections. Comparison of next-to-leading order QCD with the measured cross section at 630 GeV and ratio of cross sections show satisfactory agreement in most of the $E_T$ range.Comment: 7 pages. Published in Phys. Rev. Lett. 87, 251805, (2001

Impact of two interventions on timeliness and data quality of an electronic disease surveillance system in a resource limited setting (Peru): a prospective evaluation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A timely detection of outbreaks through surveillance is needed in order to prevent future pandemics. However, current surveillance systems may not be prepared to accomplish this goal, especially in resource limited settings. As data quality and timeliness are attributes that improve outbreak detection capacity, we assessed the effect of two interventions on such attributes in Alerta, an electronic disease surveillance system in the Peruvian Navy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>40 Alerta reporting units (18 clinics and 22 ships) were included in a 12-week prospective evaluation project. After a short refresher course on the notification process, units were randomly assigned to either a phone, visit or control group. Phone group sites were called three hours before the biweekly reporting deadline if they had not sent their report. Visit group sites received supervision visits on weeks 4 & 8, but no phone calls. The control group sites were not contacted by phone or visited. Timeliness and data quality were assessed by calculating the percentage of reports sent on time and percentage of errors per total number of reports, respectively.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Timeliness improved in the phone group from 64.6% to 84% in clinics (+19.4 [95% CI, +10.3 to +28.6]; p < 0.001) and from 46.9% to 77.3% on ships (+30.4 [95% CI, +16.9 to +43.8]; p < 0.001). Visit and control groups did not show significant changes in timeliness. Error rates decreased in the visit group from 7.1% to 2% in clinics (-5.1 [95% CI, -8.7 to -1.4]; p = 0.007), but only from 7.3% to 6.7% on ships (-0.6 [95% CI, -2.4 to +1.1]; p = 0.445). Phone and control groups did not show significant improvement in data quality.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Regular phone reminders significantly improved timeliness of reports in clinics and ships, whereas supervision visits led to improved data quality only among clinics. Further investigations are needed to establish the cost-effectiveness and optimal use of each of these strategies.</p

X-ray emission from the Sombrero galaxy: discrete sources

We present a study of discrete X-ray sources in and around the bulge-dominated, massive Sa galaxy, Sombrero (M104), based on new and archival Chandra observations with a total exposure of ~200 ks. With a detection limit of L_X = 1E37 erg/s and a field of view covering a galactocentric radius of ~30 kpc (11.5 arcminute), 383 sources are detected. Cross-correlation with Spitler et al.'s catalogue of Sombrero globular clusters (GCs) identified from HST/ACS observations reveals 41 X-rays sources in GCs, presumably low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs). We quantify the differential luminosity functions (LFs) for both the detected GC and field LMXBs, whose power-low indices (~1.1 for the GC-LF and ~1.6 for field-LF) are consistent with previous studies for elliptical galaxies. With precise sky positions of the GCs without a detected X-ray source, we further quantify, through a fluctuation analysis, the GC LF at fainter luminosities down to 1E35 erg/s. The derived index rules out a faint-end slope flatter than 1.1 at a 2 sigma significance, contrary to recent findings in several elliptical galaxies and the bulge of M31. On the other hand, the 2-6 keV unresolved emission places a tight constraint on the field LF, implying a flattened index of ~1.0 below 1E37 erg/s. We also detect 101 sources in the halo of Sombrero. The presence of these sources cannot be interpreted as galactic LMXBs whose spatial distribution empirically follows the starlight. Their number is also higher than the expected number of cosmic AGNs (52+/-11 [1 sigma]) whose surface density is constrained by deep X-ray surveys. We suggest that either the cosmic X-ray background is unusually high in the direction of Sombrero, or a distinct population of X-ray sources is present in the halo of Sombrero.Comment: 11 figures, 5 tables, ApJ in pres