Intervention Now to Eliminate Repeat Unintended Pregnancy in Teenagers (INTERUPT): a systematic review of intervention effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, and qualitative and realist synthesis of implementation factors and user engagement.

BACKGROUND: Unintended repeat conceptions can result in emotional, psychological and educational harm to young women, often with enduring implications for their life chances. This study aimed to identify which young women are at the greatest risk of repeat unintended pregnancies; which interventions are effective and cost-effective; and what are the barriers to and facilitators for the uptake of these interventions. METHODS: We conducted a mixed-methods systematic review which included meta-analysis, framework synthesis and application of realist principles, with stakeholder input and service user feedback to address this. We searched 20 electronic databases, including MEDLINE, Excerpta Medica database, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts and Research Papers in Economics, to cover a broad range of health, social science, health economics and grey literature sources. Searches were conducted between May 2013 and June 2014 and updated in August 2015. RESULTS: Twelve randomised controlled trials (RCTs), two quasi-RCTs, 10 qualitative studies and 53 other quantitative studies were identified. The RCTs evaluated psychosocial interventions and an emergency contraception programme. The primary outcome was repeat conception rate: the event rate was 132 of 308 (43%) in the intervention group versus 140 of 289 (48%) for the control group, with a non-significant risk ratio (RR) of 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78-1.08]. Four studies reported subsequent birth rates: 29 of 237 (12%) events for the intervention arm versus 46 out of 224 (21%) for the control arm, with an RR of 0.60 (95% CI 0.39-0.93). Many repeat conceptions occurred in the context of poverty, low expectations and aspirations and negligible opportunities. Qualitative and realist evidence highlighted the importance of context, motivation, future planning and giving young women a central and active role in the development of new interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Little or no evidence for the effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of any of the interventions to reduce repeat pregnancy in young women was found. Qualitative and realist evidence helped to explain gaps in intervention design that should be addressed. More theory-based, rigorously evaluated programmes need to be developed to reduce unintended repeat pregnancy in young women. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO, CRD42012003168 . Cochrane registration number: i = fertility/0068

Intervention Now To Eliminate Repeat Unintended Pregnancy in Teenagers (INTERUPT): a systematic review of intervention effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, qualitative and realist synthesis of implementation factors and user engagement

Background The UK has the highest rate of teenage pregnancies in Western Europe, a fifth are repeat pregnancies. Unintended conceptions can result in emotional, psychological and educational harm to teenage girls, often with enduring implications for their life chances. Babies of teenage mothers have increased mortality in their first year and increased risk of poverty, educational underachievement and unemployment later in life, with associated societal costs. Methods and analysis We will conduct a streamed, mixed-methods systematic review to find and evaluate interventions designed to reduce repeat unintended teen pregnancies. Our aims are to identify Who is at greater risk of repeat unintended pregnancies? Which interventions are effective, cost-effective, how they work, in what setting and for whom? What are the barriers and facilitators to intervention uptake? Traditional electronic database searches will be augmented by targeted searches for evidence ‘clusters’ and guided by an advisory group of experts and stakeholders. To address the topic's inherent complexities, we will use a highly structured, innovative and iterative approach combining methodological techniques tailored to each stream of evidence. Quantitative data will be synthesised with reference to Cochrane guidelines for public health interventions. Qualitative evidence addressing facilitators and barriers to the uptake of interventions, experience and acceptability of interventions will be synthesised thematically. We will apply the principles of realist synthesis to uncover theories and mechanisms underpinning interventions. We will conduct an integration and overarching narrative of findings authenticated by client group feedback. Ethics and dissemination We will publish the complete review in ‘Health Technology Assessment’ and sections in specialist peer-reviewed journals. We will present at national and international conferences in the fields of public health, reproductive medicine and review methodology. Findings will be fed back to service users and practitioners via workshops run by the partner collaborators

Extragalactic neutrino background from very young pulsars surrounded by supernova envelopes

We estimate the extragalactic muon neutrino background which is produced by hadrons injected by very young pulsars at an early phase after supernova explosion. It is assumed that hadrons are accelerated in the pulsar wind zone which is filled with thermal photons captured below the expanding supernova envelope. In collisions with those thermal photons hadrons produce pions which decay into muon neutrinos. At a later time, muon neutrinos are also produced by the hadrons in collisions with matter of the expanding envelope. We show that extragalactic neutrino background predicted by such a model should be detectable by the planned 1 km$^2$ neutrino detector if a significant part of pulsars is born with periods shorter than $\sim 10$ ms. Since such population of pulsars is postulated by the recent models of production of extremely high energy cosmic rays, detection of neutrinos with predicted fluxes can be used as their observational test.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, A&A style, accepted to A&A Let

Model confidence sets and forecast combination: an application to age-specific mortality

Background: Model averaging combines forecasts obtained from a range of models, and it often produces more accurate forecasts than a forecast from a single model. Objective: The crucial part of forecast accuracy improvement in using the model averaging lies in the determination of optimal weights from a finite sample. If the weights are selected sub-optimally, this can affect the accuracy of the model-averaged forecasts. Instead of choosing the optimal weights, we consider trimming a set of models before equally averaging forecasts from the selected superior models. Motivated by Hansen et al. (2011), we apply and evaluate the model confidence set procedure when combining mortality forecasts. Data & Methods: The proposed model averaging procedure is motivated by Samuels and Sekkel (2017) based on the concept of model confidence sets as proposed by Hansen et al. (2011) that incorporates the statistical significance of the forecasting performance. As the model confidence level increases, the set of superior models generally decreases. The proposed model averaging procedure is demonstrated via national and sub-national Japanese mortality for retirement ages between 60 and 100+. Results: Illustrated by national and sub-national Japanese mortality for ages between 60 and 100+, the proposed model-average procedure gives the smallest interval forecast errors, especially for males. Conclusion: We find that robust out-of-sample point and interval forecasts may be obtained from the trimming method. By robust, we mean robustness against model misspecification

Jet size dependence of single jet suppression in lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s(NN)) = 2.76 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

Measurements of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions at the LHC provide direct sensitivity to the physics of jet quenching. In a sample of lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s) = 2.76 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of approximately 7 inverse microbarns, ATLAS has measured jets with a calorimeter over the pseudorapidity interval |eta| < 2.1 and over the transverse momentum range 38 < pT < 210 GeV. Jets were reconstructed using the anti-kt algorithm with values for the distance parameter that determines the nominal jet radius of R = 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The centrality dependence of the jet yield is characterized by the jet "central-to-peripheral ratio," Rcp. Jet production is found to be suppressed by approximately a factor of two in the 10% most central collisions relative to peripheral collisions. Rcp varies smoothly with centrality as characterized by the number of participating nucleons. The observed suppression is only weakly dependent on jet radius and transverse momentum. These results provide the first direct measurement of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions and complement previous measurements of dijet transverse energy imbalance at the LHC.Comment: 15 pages plus author list (30 pages total), 8 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Physics Letters B. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at http://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/HION-2011-02

Para-infectious brain injury in COVID-19 persists at follow-up despite attenuated cytokine and autoantibody responses

To understand neurological complications of COVID-19 better both acutely and for recovery, we measured markers of brain injury, inflammatory mediators, and autoantibodies in 203 hospitalised participants; 111 with acute sera (1–11 days post-admission) and 92 convalescent sera (56 with COVID-19-associated neurological diagnoses). Here we show that compared to 60 uninfected controls, tTau, GFAP, NfL, and UCH-L1 are increased with COVID-19 infection at acute timepoints and NfL and GFAP are significantly higher in participants with neurological complications. Inflammatory mediators (IL-6, IL-12p40, HGF, M-CSF, CCL2, and IL-1RA) are associated with both altered consciousness and markers of brain injury. Autoantibodies are more common in COVID-19 than controls and some (including against MYL7, UCH-L1, and GRIN3B) are more frequent with altered consciousness. Additionally, convalescent participants with neurological complications show elevated GFAP and NfL, unrelated to attenuated systemic inflammatory mediators and to autoantibody responses. Overall, neurological complications of COVID-19 are associated with evidence of neuroglial injury in both acute and late disease and these correlate with dysregulated innate and adaptive immune responses acutely