Combining data from the distributed GRUAN site Lauder-Invercargill, New Zealand, to provide a site atmospheric state best estimate of temperature

A site atmospheric state best estimate (SASBE) of the temperature profile above the GCOS (Global Climate Observing System) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) site at Lauder, New Zealand, has been developed. Data from multiple sources are combined within the SASBE to generate a high temporal resolution data set that includes an estimate of the uncertainty on every value. The SASBE has been developed to enhance the value of measurements made at the distributed GRUAN site at Lauder and Invercargill (about 180km apart), and to demonstrate a methodology which can be adapted to other distributed sites. Within GRUAN, a distributed site consists of a cluster of instruments at different locations. The temperature SASBE combines measurements from radiosondes and automatic weather stations at Lauder and Invercargill, and ERA5 reanalysis, which is used to calculate a diurnal temperature cycle to which the SASBE converges in the absence of any measurements. The SASBE provides hourly temperature profiles at 16 pressure levels between the surface and 10hPa for the years 1997 to 2012. Every temperature value has an associated uncertainty which is calculated by propagating the measurement uncertainties, the ERA5 ensemble standard deviations, and the ERA5 representativeness uncertainty through the retrieval chain. The SASBE has been long-term archived and is identified using the digital object identifier https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1195779. The study demonstrates a method to combine data collected at distributed sites. The resulting best-estimate temperature data product for Lauder is expected to be valuable for satellite and model validation as measurements of atmospheric essential climate variables are sparse in the Southern Hemisphere. The SASBE could, for example, be used to constrain a radiative transfer model to provide top-of-the-atmosphere radiances with traceable uncertainty estimates

The Impact of Vortex Breakdown on Ozone over New Zealand in 1998

After Antarctic vortex breakdown, significant changes in the total ozone column at southern mid-latitudes can be observed. In the late 1990s, breakdown often occurrred in early to mid-December, so that large vortex remnants were at southern mid-latitudes around the time of summer solstice, when they would have a maximum effect on UV. Examination of ozonesonde profiles, meteorological analyses, and ozone maps derived from POAM III data, suggest that the 1998 Antarctic vortex breakdown had a substantial impact on stratospheric ozone levels above New Zealand. To investigate this period, a back-trajectory model was used to track the origin of air parcels at 34-48 S and 162-178 E, on the 400, 500, 600 and 700 K potential temperature surfaces. At 600 K, vortex air covered 50-60\% of New Zealand in mid-December, and nearly all of the South Island after Christmas. Vortex air was also over parts of the North Island at 500 K by the end of the year. The parcels were then initialized with ozone mixing ratio values according to the observed relation between potential vorticity and ozone. This relationship was derived from the correlation between United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) potential vorticity analyses and POAM III ozone profiles. Assuming that over this period ozone can be considered a passive tracer, ozone profiles above New Zealand were modelled, and compared to available ozonesonde measurements. The decrease in total ozone above New Zealand due to the vortex breakdown was then quantified

Reconstruction and Simulation of Stratospheric Ozone Distributions during the 2002 Austral Winter

Satellite-based solar occultation measurements during the 2002 austral winter have been used to reconstruct global, three-dimensional ozone distributions. The reconstruction method uses correlations between potential vorticity and ozone to derive “proxy” distributions from the geographically limited occultation observations. Ozone profiles from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement III (POAM III), and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II and III (SAGE II and III) are incorporated into the analysis. Because this is one of the first uses of SAGE III data in a scientific analysis, preliminary validation results are shown. The reconstruction method is described, with particular emphasis on uncertainties caused by noisy and/or multivalued correlations. The evolution of the solar occultation data and proxy ozone fields throughout the winter is described, and differences with respect to previous winters are characterized. The results support the idea that dynamical forcing early in the 2002 winter influenced the morphology of the stratosphere in a significant and unusual manner, possibly setting the stage for the unprecedented major stratospheric warming in late September. The proxy is compared with ozone from mechanistic, primitive equation model simulations of passive ozone tracer fields during the time of the warming. In regions where chemistry is negligible compared to transport, the model and proxy ozone fields agree well. The agreement between, and changes in, the large-scale ozone fields in the model and proxy indicate that transport processes, particularly enhanced poleward transport and mixing, are the primary cause of ozone changes through most of the stratosphere during this unprecedented event. The analysis culminates with the calculation of globally distributed column ozone during the major warming, showing quantitatively how transport of low-latitude air to the polar region in the middle stratosphere led to the diminished ozone hole in 2002

Five years of observations of ozone profiles over Lauder, New Zealand

Altitude profiles of ozone (O3) over Lauder (45°S, 170°E) performed using a lidar, ozonesondes, and the satellite-borne Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II) instrument are presented. These data form one of the few long-term sets of O3 profiles at a Southern Hemisphere location. In the 5 years of data presented, the dominant variation is the annual cycle, the phase and amplitude of which differ below and above 27.5 km. Superposed are irregular episodic variations, caused by various processes. The first process studied is stratosphere-troposphere exchange, characterized by dry and O3-rich air residing in the troposphere, which was found in 21% of the measurements. The second relates to the positioning of the higher polar vortex over Lauder, often in combination with the exchange of air between midlatitude and subtropical stratospheric regions. We present examples of this which were observed over Lauder during the 1997 winter. This winter was selected for further study because of the record-low O3 amounts measured. The third process is mixing of O3-depleted vortex air with midlatitude air after the vortex breakup. We present one example, which shows that a filament originating from the depleted Antarctic vortex significantly lowers O3 amounts over Lauder around 27 November 1997. There is thus a connection between Antarctic O3 depletion and later decrease of O3 amounts at a Southern Hemisphere midlatitude location, namely Lauder

Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past

Simulations of the stratosphere from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone predictions made by the same CCMs. The focus of the evaluation is on how well the fields and processes that are important for determining the ozone distribution are represented in the simulations of the recent past. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960–2004). Comparisons of polar high-latitude temperatures show that most CCMs have only small biases in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring, but still have cold biases in the Southern Hemisphere spring below 10 hPa. Most CCMs display the correct stratospheric response of polar temperatures to wave forcing in the Northern, but not in the Southern Hemisphere. Global long-term stratospheric temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with satellite and radiosonde observations. Comparisons of simulations of methane, mean age of air, and propagation of the annual cycle in water vapor show a wide spread in the results, indicating differences in transport. However, for around half the models there is reasonable agreement with observations. In these models the mean age of air and the water vapor tape recorder signal are generally better than reported in previous model intercomparisons. Comparisons of the water vapor and inorganic chlorine (Cly) fields also show a large intermodel spread. Differences in tropical water vapor mixing ratios in the lower stratosphere are primarily related to biases in the simulated tropical tropopause temperatures and not transport. The spread in Cly, which is largest in the polar lower stratosphere, appears to be primarily related to transport differences. In general the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle in total ozone is well simulated apart from the southern high latitudes. Most CCMs show reasonable agreement with observed total ozone trends and variability on a global scale, but a greater spread in the ozone trends in polar regions in spring, especially in the Arctic. In conclusion, despite the wide range of skills in representing different processes assessed here, there is sufficient agreement between the majority of the CCMs and the observations that some confidence can be placed in their predictions

QCD and strongly coupled gauge theories : challenges and perspectives

We highlight the progress, current status, and open challenges of QCD-driven physics, in theory and in experiment. We discuss how the strong interaction is intimately connected to a broad sweep of physical problems, in settings ranging from astrophysics and cosmology to strongly coupled, complex systems in particle and condensed-matter physics, as well as to searches for physics beyond the Standard Model. We also discuss how success in describing the strong interaction impacts other fields, and, in turn, how such subjects can impact studies of the strong interaction. In the course of the work we offer a perspective on the many research streams which flow into and out of QCD, as well as a vision for future developments.Peer reviewe

The sensitivity of stratospheric ozone changes through the 21st century to N2O and CH4

Through the 21st century, anthropogenic emissions of the greenhouse gases N2O and CH4 are projected to increase, thus increasing their atmospheric concentrations. Consequently, reactive nitrogen species produced from N2O and reactive hydrogen species produced from CH4 are expected to play an increasingly important role in determining stratospheric ozone concentrations. Eight chemistry-climate model simulations were performed to assess the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone to different emissions scenarios for N2O and CH4. Global-mean total column ozone increases through the 21st century in all eight simulations as a result of CO2-induced stratospheric cooling and decreasing stratospheric halogen concentrations. Larger N2O concentrations were associated with smaller ozone increases, due to reactive nitrogen-mediated ozone destruction. In the simulation with the largest N2O increase, global-mean total column ozone increased by 4.3 DU through the 21st century, compared with 10.0 DU in the simulation with the smallest N2O increase. In contrast, larger CH4 concentrations were associated with larger ozone increases; global-mean total column ozone increased by 16.7 DU through the 21st century in the simulation with the largest CH4 concentrations and by 4.4 DU in the simulation with the lowest CH4 concentrations. CH4 leads to ozone loss in the upper and lower stratosphere by increasing the rate of reactive hydrogen-mediated ozone loss cycles, however in the lower stratosphere and troposphere, CH4 leads to ozone increases due to photochemical smog-type chemistry. In addition to this mechanism, total column ozone increases due to H2O-induced cooling of the stratosphere, and slowing of the chlorine-catalyzed ozone loss cycles due to an increased rate of the CH4 + Cl reaction. Stratospheric column ozone through the 21st century exhibits a near-linear response to changes in N2O and CH4 surface concentrations, which provides a simple parameterization for the ozone response to changes in these gases.ISSN:1680-7375ISSN:1680-736

Antarctic Air over Southern Midlatitudes Following Vortex Breakdown in 1998

After breakdown of the Antarctic vortex, ozone-depleted air is transported to southern midlatitudes. Examination of ozonesonde profiles for Lauder, New Zealand, for the month of December 1998, suggests that the 1998 Antarctic vortex breakdown had a noticeable impact on stratospheric ozone levels above New Zealand. To investigate this period, diabatic reverse domain filling calculations are performed for the parcels in southern midlatitudes (30-60$^\circ$\,S, on a $1^\circ$ latitude by $1^\circ$ longitude grid). The trajectories are run back to 10 October 1998. It is assumed that the depletion processes within the vortex did not take place after this date. The parcels originating inside the vortex are labelled using potential vorticity values that define the vortex edge on 10 October 1998. Seven potential temperature surfaces are examined 400-700 K, with a 50 K difference. In the next step, the vortex parcels are initialized with depleted ozone mixing ratios. Assuming that the depleted ozone is a tracer, it is advected forward in time, and the decreases in midlatitude ozone levels due to the depletion process within the vortex, are calculated

Reconstruction and Simulation of Stratospheric Ozone Distributions During the 2002 Austral Winter

Satellite-based solar occultation measurements during the 2002 Austral winter have been used to reconstruct global, three dimensional ozone distributions. The reconstruction method uses correlations between potential vorticity and ozone to derive ``proxy'' distributions from the geographically limited occultation observations. Ozone profiles from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III, and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II \& III are incorporated into the analysis. The reconstruction method is described, and the evolution of the solar occultation data and proxy ozone fields throughout the winter is discussed. The results support the idea that dynamical forcing early in the 2002 winter influenced the morphology of the stratosphere in a significant and unusual manner. The proxy is compared with ozone from mechanistic, primitive equation model simulations of passive ozone tracer fields during the time of the warming. In regions where chemistry is negligible compared to transport, the model and proxy ozone fields agree well. The agreement between, and changes in, the large scale ozone fields in model and proxy indicate that transport processes, particularly enhanced poleward transport and mixing, are the primary cause of ozone changes through most of the stratosphere during this unprecedented event. The analysis culminates with the calculation of globally distributed column ozone during the major warming, showing quantitatively how transport of low-latitude air to the polar region in the middle stratosphere led to the diminished ozone hole in 2002

Interannual-to-decadal variability of the stratosphere during the 20th century: ensemble simulations with a chemistry-climate model

Interannual-to-decadal variability in stratospheric ozone and climate have a number of common sources, such as variations in solar irradiance, stratospheric aerosol loading due to volcanic eruptions, El Niño Southern Oscillation variability and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Currently available data records as well as model simulations addressing stratospheric chemical climate variability mostly cover only the past few decades, which is often insufficient to address natural interannual-to-decadal variability. Here we make use of recently reconstructed and re-evaluated data products to force and validate transient ensemble model simulations (nine members) across the twentieth century computed by means of the chemistry-climate model SOCOL (SOlar Climate Ozone Links). The forcings include sea surface temperatures, sea ice, solar irradiance, stratospheric aerosols, QBO, changes in land properties, greenhouse gases, ozone depleting substances, and emissions of carbon monoxides, and nitrogen oxides. The transient simulations are in good agreement with observations, reconstructions and reanalyses and allow quantification of interannual-to-decadal variability during the 20th century. All ensemble members are able to capture the low-frequency variability in tropical and mid-latitude total ozone as well as in the strength of the subtropical jet, suggesting a realistic response to external forcings in this area. The region of the northern polar vortex exhibits a large internal variability that is found in the frequency, seasonality, and strength of major warmings as well as in the strength of the modeled polar vortex. Results from process-oriented analysis, such as correlation between the vertical Eliassen Palm flux (EP flux) component and polar variables as well as stratospheric ozone trends, are of comparable magnitude to those observed and are consistent in all analysed ensemble members. Yet, trend estimates of the vertical EP flux component vary greatly among ensemble members precluding any robust conclusions. This suggests that internal variability in models must be accounted for in order to quantify the atmospheric model response in wave energy upon external forcings.ISSN:1680-7375ISSN:1680-736