Identifying Thresholds for Ecosystem-Based Management

Background One of the greatest obstacles to moving ecosystem-based management (EBM) from concept to practice is the lack of a systematic approach to defining ecosystem-level decision criteria, or reference points that trigger management action. Methodology/Principal Findings To assist resource managers and policymakers in developing EBM decision criteria, we introduce a quantitative, transferable method for identifying utility thresholds. A utility threshold is the level of human-induced pressure (e.g., pollution) at which small changes produce substantial improvements toward the EBM goal of protecting an ecosystem\u27s structural (e.g., diversity) and functional (e.g., resilience) attributes. The analytical approach is based on the detection of nonlinearities in relationships between ecosystem attributes and pressures. We illustrate the method with a hypothetical case study of (1) fishing and (2) nearshore habitat pressure using an empirically-validated marine ecosystem model for British Columbia, Canada, and derive numerical threshold values in terms of the density of two empirically-tractable indicator groups, sablefish and jellyfish. We also describe how to incorporate uncertainty into the estimation of utility thresholds and highlight their value in the context of understanding EBM trade-offs. Conclusions/Significance For any policy scenario, an understanding of utility thresholds provides insight into the amount and type of management intervention required to make significant progress toward improved ecosystem structure and function. The approach outlined in this paper can be applied in the context of single or multiple human-induced pressures, to any marine, freshwater, or terrestrial ecosystem, and should facilitate more effective management

A revised diet matrix to improve the parameterization of a West Florida Shelf Ecopath model for understanding harmful algal bloom impacts

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a growing concern in the West Florida Shelf (WFS) region. An Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model of the WFS explicitly simulating HABs was previously developed to illuminate the potential impacts of blooms of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis (colloquially referred to as “red tides”) on the WFS ecosystem. However, the diet matrix of the Ecopath component of this EwE model (referred to as “WFS-HAB Ecopath”) was based largely on sparse, cursory information and not on local survey data. Here, we revise the diet matrix of the WFS-HAB Ecopath model using predictions of a robust statistical model that incorporates local survey data and employs the Dirichlet distribution and maximum likelihood estimation. The relative impacts of both the revised diet matrix and red tide mortality scenarios on model structure are explored by comparing four alternative WFS-HAB Ecopath models: (i) the base model; (ii) a model employing the revised diet matrix; (iii) a model with elevated red tide mortality; and (iv) a model with both the revised diet matrix and elevated red tide mortality. Incorporating the revised diet matrix into the WFS-HAB Ecopath model had a relatively large impact on ecosystem structure (i.e., trophic organization, mortality rates, trophic interaction strengths, and omnivory). Elevated red tide mortality had virtually no impact on ecosystem structure aside from altering the contribution of fishing, natural, and red tide mortalities to the total mortality of functional groups; however, elevated red tide mortality might have meaningful implications in dynamic simulations, which should be explored in future studies. Collectively, results showed that incorporating the revised diet matrix into WFS-HAB Ecopath, which revealed a number of new predator-prey linkages, led to a more complex and interconnected food web. Specifically, prey items were generally consumed by a broader variety of predators, which contrasts with the base WFS-HAB Ecopath model where many prey, particularly juvenile fishes, were subjected to exceedingly high predation mortality rates from specific predators. The incorporation of the revised diet matrix into the WFS-HAB Ecopath model discussed herein is a fundamental step towards increasing the realism of trophic interactions in the model, which is particularly important as these trophic interactions define starting conditions for dynamic simulations.publishedVersio

Ocean Futures Under Ocean Acidification, Marine Protection, and Changing Fishing Pressures Explored Using a Worldwide Suite of Ecosystem Models

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) of the ocean considers all impacts on and uses of marine and coastal systems. In recent years, there has been a heightened interest in EBM tools that allow testing of alternative management options and help identify tradeoffs among human uses. End-to-end ecosystem modeling frameworks that consider a wide range of management options are a means to provide integrated solutions to the complex ocean management problems encountered in EBM. Here, we leverage the global advances in ecosystem modeling to explore common opportunities and challenges for ecosystem-based management, including changes in ocean acidification, spatial management, and fishing pressure across eight Atlantis (atlantis.cmar.csiro.au) end-to-end ecosystem models. These models represent marine ecosystems from the tropics to the arctic, varying in size, ecology, and management regimes, using a three-dimensional, spatially-explicit structure parametrized for each system. Results suggest stronger impacts from ocean acidification and marine protected areas than from altering fishing pressure, both in terms of guild-level (i.e., aggregations of similar species or groups) biomass and in terms of indicators of ecological and fishery structure. Effects of ocean acidification were typically negative (reducing biomass), while marine protected areas led to both “winners” and “losers” at the level of particular species (or functional groups). Changing fishing pressure (doubling or halving) had smaller effects on the species guilds or ecosystem indicators than either ocean acidification or marine protected areas. Compensatory effects within guilds led to weaker average effects at the guild level than the species or group level. The impacts and tradeoffs implied by these future scenarios are highly relevant as ocean governance shifts focus from single-sector objectives (e.g., sustainable levels of individual fished stocks) to taking into account competing industrial sectors\u27 objectives (e.g., simultaneous spatial management of energy, shipping, and fishing) while at the same time grappling with compounded impacts of global climate change (e.g., ocean acidification and warming)

Do toddlers prefer the primary caregiver or the parent with whom they feel more secure? The role of toddler emotion

This study tested Bowlby and Ainsworth’s hypothesis that a hierarchy of caregivers exists whereby infants prefer one caregiver over another when distressed. We examined parent gender (mother vs. father), primary caregiver status (defined as the parent who spent most time with the infant and performed most of the caregiving tasks), and role of toddlers’ history of attachment security with each parent, as predictors of toddlers’ preference for a particular caregiver when the toddlers are distressed and when they are content. Infants’ attachment security with each parent was assessed at 12–15 months. At 24 months, mother–child and father–child interactions were observed in triadic (mother, father, toddler) home interactions. When distressed, regardless of the security of their attachment to each parent, toddlers more often interacted with the primary caregiver. When content, toddlers did not show this preference. As expected, toddlers’ recovery from distress was predicted by their security of attachment with the parent whom they approached when distressed

Muslim communities learning about second-hand smoke (MCLASS): Study protocol for a pilot cluster randomised controlled trial

Background: In the UK, 40% of Bangladeshi and 29% of Pakistani men smoke cigarettes regularly compared to the national average of 24%. As a consequence, second-hand smoking is also widespread in their households which is a serious health hazard to non-smokers, especially children. Smoking restrictions in households can help reduce exposure to second-hand smoking. This is a pilot trial of 'Smoke Free Homes', an educational programme which has been adapted for use by Muslim faith leaders, in an attempt to find an innovative solution to encourage Pakistani- and Bangladeshi-origin communities to implement smoking restrictions in their homes. The primary objectives for this pilot trial are to establish the feasibility of conducting such an evaluation and provide information to inform the design of a future definitive study.Methods/Design: This is a pilot cluster randomised controlled trial of 'Smoke Free Homes', with an embedded preliminary health economic evaluation and a qualitative analysis. The trial will be carried out in around 14 Islamic religious settings. Equal randomisation will be employed to allocate each cluster to a trial arm. The intervention group will be offered the Smoke Free Homes package (Smoke Free Homes: a resource for Muslim religious teachers), trained in its use, and will subsequently implement the package in their religious settings. The remaining clusters will not be offered the package until the completion of the study and will form the control group. At each cluster, we aim to recruit around 50 households with at least one adult resident who smokes tobacco and at least one child or a non-smoking adult. Households will complete a household survey and a non-smoking individual will provide a saliva sample which will be tested for cotinine. All participant outcomes will be measured before and after the intervention period in both arms of the trial. In addition, a purposive sample of participants and religious leaders/teachers will take part in interviews and focus groups.Discussion: The results of this pilot study will inform the protocol for a definitive trial

Current socio-economic measures, and not those measured during infancy, affect bone mass in poor urban South african children.

Understanding the impact of socio-economic status (SES) on physical development in children is important, especially in developing countries where considerable inequalities persist. This is the first study to examine the association between SES on bone development at the whole body, femoral neck, and lumbar spine in black children living in Soweto and Johannesburg, South Africa. Linear regression models were used to study associations between SES during infancy and current SES, anthropometric, and DXA-derived bone mass in 9/10-yr-old children (n = 309). Findings suggest that current SES measures, rather than SES during infancy, are stronger predictors of current whole body bone area (BA) and whole body BMC after adjusting for body size, pubertal development, physical activity, habitual dietary calcium intake, and body composition. SES had no significant effect on either hip or spine bone mass. Caregiver's marital/cohabiting status (indicator of social support) and whether there was a television in the home (indicator of greater income) at age 9/10 yr were the most important socio-economic determinants of whole body BA and BMC. SES has a significant independent effect on whole body BMC through its impact on BA. This suggests that poverty alleviation policies in South Africa could have a positive effect on bone health

The Health Impact Fund: How Might It Work for Novel Anticoagulants in Atrial Fibrillation?

Cardiovascular diseases represent the greatest burden of global disease. Spending on cardiovascular diseases is higher than for other diseases, with the majority being spent on drugs. Therefore, these drugs and these diseases are hugely important to health systems, society, and pharmaceutical companies. The Health Impact Fund represents a new mechanism by which pharmaceutical innovators would be rewarded on the basis of the health impact of their new drugs. This review illustrates the concept of the Health Impact Fund using the example of novel anticoagulants for prevention of stroke and thromboembolism in atrial fibrillation. By considering existing data and the current situation for novel anticoagulants, we suggest that epidemiologic data and modeling techniques can be used to predict future trends in disease and the health impact of new drugs. The Health Impact Fund may offer potential benefits to pharmaceutical companies, patients, and governments and warrants proper investigation

Manipulating stomatal density enhances drought tolerance without deleterious effect on nutrient uptake

Manipulation of stomatal density was investigated as a potential tool for enhancing drought tolerance or nutrient uptake. Drought tolerance and soil water retention were assessed using Arabidopsis epidermal patterning factor mutants manipulated to have increased or decreased stomatal density. Root nutrient uptake via mass flow was monitored under differing plant watering regimes using nitrogen-15 (15N) isotope and mass spectrometry. Plants with less than half of their normal complement of stomata, and correspondingly reduced levels of transpiration, conserve soil moisture and are highly drought tolerant but show little or no reduction in shoot nitrogen concentrations especially when water availability is restricted. By contrast, plants with over twice the normal density of stomata have a greater capacity for nitrogen uptake, except when water availability is restricted. We demonstrate the possibility of producing plants with reduced transpiration which have increased drought tolerance, with little or no loss of nutrient uptake. We demonstrate that increasing transpiration can enhance nutrient uptake when water is plentiful

Plant phenolics and absorption features in vegetation reflectance spectra near 1.66μm

AbstractPast laboratory and field studies have quantified phenolic substances in vegetative matter from reflectance measurements for understanding plant response to herbivores and insect predation. Past remote sensing studies on phenolics have evaluated crop quality and vegetation patterns caused by bedrock geology and associated variations in soil geochemistry. We examined spectra of pure phenolic compounds, common plant biochemical constituents, dry leaves, fresh leaves, and plant canopies for direct evidence of absorption features attributable to plant phenolics. Using spectral feature analysis with continuum removal, we observed that a narrow feature at 1.66μm is persistent in spectra of manzanita, sumac, red maple, sugar maple, tea, and other species. This feature was consistent with absorption caused by aromatic CH bonds in the chemical structure of phenolic compounds and non-hydroxylated aromatics. Because of overlapping absorption by water, the feature was weaker in fresh leaf and canopy spectra compared to dry leaf measurements. Simple linear regressions of feature depth and feature area with polyphenol concentration in tea resulted in high correlations and low errors (% phenol by dry weight) at the dry leaf (r2=0.95, RMSE=1.0%, n=56), fresh leaf (r2=0.79, RMSE=2.1%, n=56), and canopy (r2=0.78, RMSE=1.0%, n=13) levels of measurement. Spectra of leaves, needles, and canopies of big sagebrush and evergreens exhibited a weak absorption feature centered near 1.63μm, short ward of the phenolic compounds, possibly consistent with terpenes. This study demonstrates that subtle variation in vegetation spectra in the shortwave infrared can directly indicate biochemical constituents and be used to quantify them. Phenolics are of lesser abundance compared to the major plant constituents but, nonetheless, have important plant functions and ecological significance. Additional research is needed to advance our understanding of the spectral influences of plant phenolics and terpenes relative to dominant leaf biochemistry (water, chlorophyll, protein/nitrogen, cellulose, and lignin)

Vertical Zoning in Marine Protected Areas: Ecological Considerations for Balancing Pelagic Fishing with Conservation of Benthic Communities

Marine protected areas (MPAs), ideally, manage human uses that threaten ecosystems, or components of ecosystems. During several recent MPA designation processes, concerns have arisen over the scientific justification for no-take MPAs, particularly those that restrict recreational fishing for pelagic species. An important question is: under what conditions might recreational pelagic fishing be compatible with the conservation goals of an MPA that is primarily focused on benthic Communities? In 2005, an expert workshop of fisheries biologists, marine ecologists, MPA managers, and recreational fishermen was convened by NOAAs National MPA Center to evaluate the limited empirical data on benthic-pelagic coupling and to help provide practical advice on this topic. The participants (i) proposed a preliminary conceptual framework for addressing vertical zoning, (ii) developed preliminary guidelines to consider when evaluating whether to allow or restrict pelagic fishing in an MPA, and (iii) identified future research priorities for understanding benthic-pelagic Coupling. A Suite of ecological conditions where recreational pelagic fishing may not be compatible with benthic conservation were identified: (1) high relief habitats, (2) depths shallower than 50-100 m (depending upon the specific location), (3) major topographic and oceanographic features, and (4) spawning areas. Similarly, pelagic fishing is not likely to affect benthic communities adversely in many circumstances. Until further scientific study can shed more light on the issue of how benthic-pelagic linkages affect specific conservation targets, the proposed framework in this manuscript provides practical, easily-applied guidance for using vertical zoning to manage fishing in multiple use MPAs that focus on benthic conservation.Areas Marinas Protegidas (AMP) idealmente, administran el uso humano que amenaza los ecosistemas o sus componentes. Durante el actual proceso de declaracion de AMP, han surgido algunas preocupaciones acerca de la justificacion cientifica para establecer areas de no pesca, particularmente aquellas que restringen la pesca recreativa de especies pelagicas. Una pregunta importante es QQQ ?bajo que condiciones la pesca pelagica recreativa es compatible con los objetivos de conservacion de un AMP que se enfoca principalmente en comunidades bentonicas? En 2005, un taller de expertos en biologia pesquera, ecologfa marina, manejo de AMP y Pescadores recreativos fue convocado por el Centra Nacional de AMP de la NOAA para evaluar los pocos datos empiricos del acoplamiento entre los sistemas pelagico y bentonico, y ofrecer asesoria practica sobre el tema. Los participantes (i) propusieron un marco conceptual preliminar para abordar el tema de la zonacion vertical, (ii) desarrollar directrices preliminares para que cuando se haga una evaluation si se permite o restringe la pesca pelagica dentro de la AMP, y (iii) identificar futuras lineas de investigation para comprender mejor el acoplamiento entre el bentos y el sistema pelagico. Se identifico una serie de condiciones ecologicas en las que la pesca recreativa pelagica puede no ser compatible con la conservacion del bentos: (1) habitat de alto relieve, (2) profundidades menores a 50 m-100 m (dependiendo de la zona), (3) caracteristicas oceanograficas y topograficas sobresalientes, y (4) areas de desove. De igual forma, bajo varias circunstancias, la pesca pelagica puede no afectar las comunidades bentonicas. Hasta que los estudios cientificos brinden mas information acerca de como las relaciones entre el bentos y el ambiente pelagico afectan los objetivos especificos de la conservacion, el contexto propuesto en este trabajo provee una guia practica y de facil aplicacion para utilizar la zonacion vertical en el manejo pesquero en varios aspectos de las AMP que se enfocan en la conservacion del bentos.Keywords: Trophic level, Marine protected areas, Pelagic fisheries, Conservatio