Treatment of input uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Doing hydrology backward with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

There is increasing consensus in the hydrologic literature that an appropriate framework for streamflow forecasting and simulation should include explicit recognition of forcing and parameter and model structural error. This paper presents a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, entitled differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM), that is especially designed to efficiently estimate the posterior probability density function of hydrologic model parameters in complex, high-dimensional sampling problems. This MCMC scheme adaptively updates the scale and orientation of the proposal distribution during sampling and maintains detailed balance and ergodicity. It is then demonstrated how DREAM can be used to analyze forcing data error during watershed model calibration using a five-parameter rainfall-runoff model with streamflow data from two different catchments. Explicit treatment of precipitation error during hydrologic model calibration not only results in prediction uncertainty bounds that are more appropriate but also significantly alters the posterior distribution of the watershed model parameters. This has significant implications for regionalization studies. The approach also provides important new ways to estimate areal average watershed precipitation, information that is of utmost importance for testing hydrologic theory, diagnosing structural errors in models, and appropriately benchmarking rainfall measurement devices

Optimisation of Mobile Communication Networks - OMCO NET

The mini conference “Optimisation of Mobile Communication Networks” focuses on advanced methods for search and optimisation applied to wireless communication networks. It is sponsored by Research & Enterprise Fund Southampton Solent University. The conference strives to widen knowledge on advanced search methods capable of optimisation of wireless communications networks. The aim is to provide a forum for exchange of recent knowledge, new ideas and trends in this progressive and challenging area. The conference will popularise new successful approaches on resolving hard tasks such as minimisation of transmit power, cooperative and optimal routing

Preservation of Positivity by Dynamical Coarse-Graining

We compare different quantum Master equations for the time evolution of the reduced density matrix. The widely applied secular approximation (rotating wave approximation) applied in combination with the Born-Markov approximation generates a Lindblad type master equation ensuring for completely positive and stable evolution and is typically well applicable for optical baths. For phonon baths however, the secular approximation is expected to be invalid. The usual Markovian master equation does not generally preserve positivity of the density matrix. As a solution we propose a coarse-graining approach with a dynamically adapted coarse graining time scale. For some simple examples we demonstrate that this preserves the accuracy of the integro-differential Born equation. For large times we analytically show that the secular approximation master equation is recovered. The method can in principle be extended to systems with a dynamically changing system Hamiltonian, which is of special interest for adiabatic quantum computation. We give some numerical examples for the spin-boson model of cases where a spin system thermalizes rapidly, and other examples where thermalization is not reached.Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures, reviewers suggestions included and tightened presentation; accepted for publication in PR

Enhancing Cooperative Coevolution for Large Scale Optimization by Adaptively Constructing Surrogate Models

It has been shown that cooperative coevolution (CC) can effectively deal with large scale optimization problems (LSOPs) through a divide-and-conquer strategy. However, its performance is severely restricted by the current context-vector-based sub-solution evaluation method since this method needs to access the original high dimensional simulation model when evaluating each sub-solution and thus requires many computation resources. To alleviate this issue, this study proposes an adaptive surrogate model assisted CC framework. This framework adaptively constructs surrogate models for different sub-problems by fully considering their characteristics. For the single dimensional sub-problems obtained through decomposition, accurate enough surrogate models can be obtained and used to find out the optimal solutions of the corresponding sub-problems directly. As for the nonseparable sub-problems, the surrogate models are employed to evaluate the corresponding sub-solutions, and the original simulation model is only adopted to reevaluate some good sub-solutions selected by surrogate models. By these means, the computation cost could be greatly reduced without significantly sacrificing evaluation quality. Empirical studies on IEEE CEC 2010 benchmark functions show that the concrete algorithm based on this framework is able to find much better solutions than the conventional CC algorithms and a non-CC algorithm even with much fewer computation resources.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1802.0974

Metaheuristic design of feedforward neural networks: a review of two decades of research

Over the past two decades, the feedforward neural network (FNN) optimization has been a key interest among the researchers and practitioners of multiple disciplines. The FNN optimization is often viewed from the various perspectives: the optimization of weights, network architecture, activation nodes, learning parameters, learning environment, etc. Researchers adopted such different viewpoints mainly to improve the FNN's generalization ability. The gradient-descent algorithm such as backpropagation has been widely applied to optimize the FNNs. Its success is evident from the FNN's application to numerous real-world problems. However, due to the limitations of the gradient-based optimization methods, the metaheuristic algorithms including the evolutionary algorithms, swarm intelligence, etc., are still being widely explored by the researchers aiming to obtain generalized FNN for a given problem. This article attempts to summarize a broad spectrum of FNN optimization methodologies including conventional and metaheuristic approaches. This article also tries to connect various research directions emerged out of the FNN optimization practices, such as evolving neural network (NN), cooperative coevolution NN, complex-valued NN, deep learning, extreme learning machine, quantum NN, etc. Additionally, it provides interesting research challenges for future research to cope-up with the present information processing era

Polynomial-Chaos-based Kriging

Computer simulation has become the standard tool in many engineering fields for designing and optimizing systems, as well as for assessing their reliability. To cope with demanding analysis such as optimization and reliability, surrogate models (a.k.a meta-models) have been increasingly investigated in the last decade. Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCE) and Kriging are two popular non-intrusive meta-modelling techniques. PCE surrogates the computational model with a series of orthonormal polynomials in the input variables where polynomials are chosen in coherency with the probability distributions of those input variables. On the other hand, Kriging assumes that the computer model behaves as a realization of a Gaussian random process whose parameters are estimated from the available computer runs, i.e. input vectors and response values. These two techniques have been developed more or less in parallel so far with little interaction between the researchers in the two fields. In this paper, PC-Kriging is derived as a new non-intrusive meta-modeling approach combining PCE and Kriging. A sparse set of orthonormal polynomials (PCE) approximates the global behavior of the computational model whereas Kriging manages the local variability of the model output. An adaptive algorithm similar to the least angle regression algorithm determines the optimal sparse set of polynomials. PC-Kriging is validated on various benchmark analytical functions which are easy to sample for reference results. From the numerical investigations it is concluded that PC-Kriging performs better than or at least as good as the two distinct meta-modeling techniques. A larger gain in accuracy is obtained when the experimental design has a limited size, which is an asset when dealing with demanding computational models