Evaluating Forecasting Methods

Ideally, forecasting methods should be evaluated in the situations for which they will be used. Underlying the evaluation procedure is the need to test methods against reasonable alternatives. Evaluation consists of four steps: testing assumptions, testing data and methods, replicating outputs, and assessing outputs. Most principles for testing forecasting methods are based on commonly accepted methodological procedures, such as to prespecify criteria or to obtain a large sample of forecast errors. However, forecasters often violate such principles, even in academic studies. Some principles might be surprising, such as do not use R-square, do not use Mean Square Error, and do not use the within-sample fit of the model to select the most accurate time-series model. A checklist of 32 principles is provided to help in systematically evaluating forecasting methods

Cost of hospital management of Clostridium difficile infection in United States - a meta-analysis and modelling study

Background: Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is the leading cause of infectious nosocomial diarrhoea but the economic costs of CDI on healthcare systems in the US remain uncertain. Methods: We conducted a systematic search for published studies investigating the direct medical cost associated with CDI hospital management in the past 10 years (2005-2015) and included 42 studies to the final data analysis to estimate the financial impact of CDI in the US. We also conducted a meta-analysis of all costs using Monte Carlo simulation. Results: The average cost for CDI case management and average CDI-attributable costs per case were $42,316 (90$ 39,886, $44,765) and$ 21,448 (90 % CI: $21,152,$ 21,744) in 2015 US dollars. Hospital-onset CDIattributable cost per case was $34,157 (90$ 33,134, $35,180), which was 1.5 times the cost of communityonset CDI ($ 20,095 [ 90 % CI: $4991,$ 35,204]). The average and incremental length of stay (LOS) for CDI inpatient treatment were 11.1 (90 % CI: 8.7-13.6) and 9.7 (90 % CI: 9.6-9.8) days respectively. Total annual CDI-attributable cost in the US is estimated US$6.3 (Range:$ 1.9-$ 7.0) billion. Total annual CDI hospital management required nearly 2.4 million days of inpatient stay. Conclusions: This review indicates that CDI places a significant financial burden on the US healthcare system. This review adds strong evidence to aid policy-making on adequate resource allocation to CDI prevention and treatment in the US. Future studies should focus on recurrent CDI, CDI in long-term care facilities and persons with comorbidities and indirect cost from a societal perspective. Health-economic studies for CDI preventive intervention are needed.Sanofi PasteurSCI(E)[email protected]

Pin1 and neurodegeneration: a new player for prion disorders?

Pin1 is a peptidyl-prolyl isomerase that catalyzes the cis/trans conversion of phosphorylated proteins at serine or threonine residues which precede a proline. The peptidyl-prolyl isomerization induces a conformational change of the proteins involved in cell signaling process. Pin1 dysregulation has been associated with some neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease and Huntington's disease. Proline-directed phosphorylation is a common regulator of these pathologies and a recent work showed that it is also involved in prion disorders. In fact, prion protein phosphorylation at the Ser-43-Pro motif induces prion protein conversion into a disease-associated form. Furthermore, phosphorylation at Ser-43-Pro has been observed to increase in the cerebral spinal fluid of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease patients. These findings provide new insights into the pathogenesis of prion disorders, suggesting Pin1 as a potential new player in the disease. In this paper, we review the mechanisms underlying Pin1 involvement in the aforementioned neurodegenerative pathologies focusing on the potential role of Pin1 in prion disorders

Localization and broadband follow-up of the gravitational-wave transient GW150914

A gravitational-wave (GW) transient was identified in data recorded by the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) detectors on 2015 September 14. The event, initially designated G184098 and later given the name GW150914, is described in detail elsewhere. By prior arrangement, preliminary estimates of the time, significance, and sky location of the event were shared with 63 teams of observers covering radio, optical, near-infrared, X-ray, and gamma-ray wavelengths with ground- and space-based facilities. In this Letter we describe the low-latency analysis of the GW data and present the sky localization of the first observed compact binary merger. We summarize the follow-up observations reported by 25 teams via private Gamma-ray Coordinates Network circulars, giving an overview of the participating facilities, the GW sky localization coverage, the timeline, and depth of the observations. As this event turned out to be a binary black hole merger, there is little expectation of a detectable electromagnetic (EM) signature. Nevertheless, this first broadband campaign to search for a counterpart of an Advanced LIGO source represents a milestone and highlights the broad capabilities of the transient astronomy community and the observing strategies that have been developed to pursue neutron star binary merger events. Detailed investigations of the EM data and results of the EM follow-up campaign are being disseminated in papers by the individual teams

ICAR: endoscopic skull‐base surgery

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The Core Value Compass: visually evaluating the goodness of brands that do good

yesBrands that do good for the society as well as for themselves are motivated by the core values they espouse, which necessitates a better understanding of what qualities a true core value must possess. The inherent tension within brands that do good, between commercial interests to increase competitiveness, and societal interests that are closely linked to the brand’s authenticity, has largely been overlooked. Hence, we develop and demonstrate a relatively easy-to-apply visual tool for evaluating core values based on a set of ‘goodness’ criteria derived from extant theory. The Core Value Compass adopts a paradox-based, evolutionary perspective by incorporating the inherent tensions within true core values, and classifying them according to their temporal orientation. Thus, we contribute towards a better understanding of underlying tensions of core values and provide a practical tool that paves the way for improved, and indeed ethical, corporate branding strategies. Furthermore, we demonstrate the Compass’ application using the case of a public sector brand, which is a quintessential brand that does good. Therefore, we also contribute to the nascent theoretical discourse on public sector branding. This paper therefore adds to the notable attempts to bridge the gap between theory and practice in core values-based corporate branding

Genome-wide analysis reveals the ancient and recent admixture history of East African Shorthorn Zebu from Western Kenya

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Subsidiary roles as determinants of subsidiary technology sourcing: empirical evidence from China

Emerging economies have become new destinations for knowledge sourcing, forcing Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) to reconfigure their global innovation strategies and structure. While foreign subsidiaries located in emerging economies were conventionally viewed as having market or efficiency seeking roles, they have started to evolve towards knowledge-seeking roles. We argue that the conventional wisdom shall be reassessed considering this recent shift. We empirically investigate 129 manufacturing MNE subsidiaries of Fortune 500 companies in China, in terms of their roles and sources of technology. Our results indicate that market and knowledge seeking subsidiaries located in China tend to have a positive impact on the generation of new knowledge, either through locally established MNE R&D laboratories or through collaborations with local firms and scientific institutions