Data Quality Assessment Methods for the Eastern Range 915 MHz Wind Profiler Network

The Eastern Range installed a network of five 915 MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profilers with Radio Acoustic Sounding Systems in the Cape Canaveral Air Station/Kennedy Space Center area to provide three-dimensional wind speed and direction and virtual temperature estimates in the boundary layer. The Applied Meteorology Unit, staffed by ENSCO, Inc., was tasked by the 45th Weather Squadron, the Spaceflight Meteorology Group, and the National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida to investigate methods which will help forecasters assess profiler network data quality when developing forecasts and warnings for critical ground, launch and landing operations. Four routines were evaluated in this study: a consensus time period check a precipitation contamination check, a median filter, and the Weber-Wuertz (WW) algorithm. No routine was able to effectively flag suspect data when used by itself. Therefore, the routines were used in different combinations. An evaluation of all possible combinations revealed two that provided the best results. The precipitation contamination and consensus time routines were used in both combinations. The median filter or WW was used as the final routine in the combinations to flag all other suspect data points

AMU NEXRAD Exploitation Task

This report documents the results of the Applied Meteorology Unit's NEXRAD Exploitation Task. The objectives of this task are to determine what radar signatures are present prior to and at the time of convection initiation, and to determine radar signatures which will help distinguish whether the ensuing convection will become severe. Radar data from the WSR-88D radar located at NWS Melbourne (WSR-88D/KMLB) were collected between June and September 1995, and 16 convective case studies were analyzed for which the radar was operating during the entire period of interest. All WSR-88D/KMLB products were scrutinized for their utility in detecting convection initiation and severe storm signatures. Through process of elimination, it was found that the 0.5 deg reflectivity product with the lowest reflectivity values displayed is the best product to monitor for convection initiation signatures. Seven meteorological features associated with the initiation of deep convection were identified: the Merritt Island and Indian River convergence zones, interlake convergence, horizontal convective rolls, the sea breeze, storm outflow boundaries, and fires. Their reflectivity values ranged from -5 to 20 dBZ. Of the three severe weather phenomena (winds greater than or equal to 50 kts, tornado, 3/4 inch hail), high wind events due to microbursts were most common in the data set. It was found that the values and trends of composite reflectivity, vertically integrated liquid, and core aspect ratio were key indicators of the potential of a cell to produce a microburst. The data were not analyzed for the other two severe weather phenomena because they rarely occurred during the data collection period. This report also includes suggestions for new WSR-88D products, summaries of ongoing research aimed at creating new products, and explicit recommended procedures for detecting convection initiation and severe storm signatures in the radar data using the currently available technology

Nowcasting Thunderstorm Anvil Clouds Over KSC/CCAFS

Electrified thunderstorm anvil clouds extend the threat of natural and triggered lightning to space launch and landing operations far beyond the immediate vicinity of thunderstorm cells. The deep convective updrafts of thunderstorms transport large amounts of water vapor, super-cooled water droplets and ice crystals into the upper troposphere, forming anvil clouds, which are then carried downstream by the prevailing winds in the anvil formation layer. Electrified anvil clouds have been observed over the space launch and landing facilities of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), emanating from thunderstorm activity more than 200 km distant. Space launch commit criteria and flight rules require launch and landing vehicles to avoid penetration of the non-transparent portion of anvil clouds. The life cycles of 167 anvil clouds over the Florida peninsula and its coastal waters were documented using GOES-8 visible imagery on 50 anvil case days during the months of May through July 2001. Anvil clouds were found to propagate at the speed and direction of upper-tropospheric winds in the layer from 300-to-l50 mb, approximately 9.4 km to 14 km, with an effective average transport lifetime of 2 hours and a standard deviation of approximately 30 minutes. The effective lifetime refers to the time required for the nontransparent leading edge of an anvil cloud to reach its maximum extent before beginning to dissipate. The propagation and lifetime information was incorporated into the design, construction and implementation of an objective short-range anvil forecast tool based on upper-air observations, for use on the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System within the Range Weather Operations facility of the 45th Weather Squadron at CCAFS and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group at Johnson Space Center

Evaluation of the Emergency Response Dose Assessment System(ERDAS)

The emergency response dose assessment system (ERDAS) is a protype software and hardware system configured to produce routine mesoscale meteorological forecasts and enhanced dispersion estimates on an operational basis for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) region. ERDAS provides emergency response guidance to operations at KSC/CCAS in the case of an accidental hazardous material release or an aborted vehicle launch. This report describes the evaluation of ERDAS including: evaluation of sea breeze predictions, comparison of launch plume location and concentration predictions, case study of a toxic release, evaluation of model sensitivity to varying input parameters, evaluation of the user interface, assessment of ERDA's operational capabilities, and a comparison of ERDAS models to the ocean breeze dry gultch diffusion model

The seeds of divergence: the economy of French North America, 1688 to 1760

Generally, Canada has been ignored in the literature on the colonial origins of divergence with most of the attention going to the United States. Late nineteenth century estimates of income per capita show that Canada was relatively poorer than the United States and that within Canada, the French and Catholic population of Quebec was considerably poorer. Was this gap long standing? Some evidence has been advanced for earlier periods, but it is quite limited and not well-suited for comparison with other societies. This thesis aims to contribute both to Canadian economic history and to comparative work on inequality across nations during the early modern period. With the use of novel prices and wages from Quebec—which was then the largest settlement in Canada and under French rule—a price index, a series of real wages and a measurement of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are constructed. They are used to shed light both on the course of economic development until the French were defeated by the British in 1760 and on standards of living in that colony relative to the mother country, France, as well as the American colonies. The work is divided into three components. The first component relates to the construction of a price index. The absence of such an index has been a thorn in the side of Canadian historians as it has limited the ability of historians to obtain real values of wages, output and living standards. This index shows that prices did not follow any trend and remained at a stable level. However, there were episodes of wide swings—mostly due to wars and the monetary experiment of playing card money. The creation of this index lays the foundation of the next component. The second component constructs a standardized real wage series in the form of welfare ratios (a consumption basket divided by nominal wage rate multiplied by length of work year) to compare Canada with France, England and Colonial America. Two measures are derived. The first relies on a “bare bones” definition of consumption with a large share of land-intensive goods. This measure indicates that Canada was poorer than England and Colonial America and not appreciably richer than France. However, this measure overestimates the relative position of Canada to the Old World because of the strong presence of land-intensive goods. A second measure is created using a “respectable” definition of consumption in which the basket includes a larger share of manufactured goods and capital-intensive goods. This second basket better reflects differences in living standards since the abundance of land in Canada (and Colonial America) made it easy to achieve bare subsistence, but the scarcity of capital and skilled labor made the consumption of luxuries and manufactured goods (clothing, lighting, imported goods) highly expensive. With this measure, the advantage of New France over France evaporates and turns slightly negative. In comparison with Britain and Colonial America, the gap widens appreciably. This element is the most important for future research. By showing a reversal because of a shift to a different type of basket, it shows that Old World and New World comparisons are very sensitive to how we measure the cost of living. Furthermore, there are no sustained improvements in living standards over the period regardless of the measure used. Gaps in living standards observed later in the nineteenth century existed as far back as the seventeenth century. In a wider American perspective that includes the Spanish colonies, Canada fares better. The third component computes a new series for Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is to avoid problems associated with using real wages in the form of welfare ratios which assume a constant labor supply. This assumption is hard to defend in the case of Colonial Canada as there were many signs of increasing industriousness during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. The GDP series suggest no long-run trend in living standards (from 1688 to circa 1765). The long peace era of 1713 to 1740 was marked by modest economic growth which offset a steady decline that had started in 1688, but by 1760 (as a result of constant warfare) living standards had sunk below their 1688 levels. These developments are accompanied by observations that suggest that other indicators of living standard declined. The flat-lining of incomes is accompanied by substantial increases in the amount of time worked, rising mortality and rising infant mortality. In addition, comparisons of incomes with the American colonies confirm the results obtained with wages— Canada was considerably poorer. At the end, a long conclusion is provides an exploratory discussion of why Canada would have diverged early on. In structural terms, it is argued that the French colony was plagued by the problem of a small population which prohibited the existence of scale effects. In combination with the fact that it was dispersed throughout the territory, the small population of New France limited the scope for specialization and economies of scale. However, this problem was in part created, and in part aggravated, by institutional factors like seigneurial tenure. The colonial origins of French America’s divergence from the rest of North America are thus partly institutional

Extended Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Analyses at the Shuttle Landing Facility: Phase II Results

This report describes the results from Phase II of the AMU's Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds at the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF). The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A seven year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. A PC-based Graphical User Interface (GUI) tool was created to display the data quickly

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station: Phase I Results

This report describes the results of the ANU's (Applied Meteorology Unit) Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds. The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The Keith Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A 7 year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. In all climatologies, the average and peak wind speeds were highly variable in time. This indicated that the development of a peak wind forecasting tool would be difficult. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. The climatologies and PDFs provide tools with which to make peak wind forecasts that are critical to safe operations