Discussion of: A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?

Discussion of "A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?" by B.B. McShane and A.J. Wyner [arXiv:1104.4002]Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS409 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Barnes Hospital Bulletin

https://digitalcommons.wustl.edu/bjc_barnes_bulletin/1040/thumbnail.jp

A graphical, scalable and intuitive method for the placement and the connection of biological cells

We introduce a graphical method originating from the computer graphics domain that is used for the arbitrary and intuitive placement of cells over a two-dimensional manifold. Using a bitmap image as input, where the color indicates the identity of the different structures and the alpha channel indicates the local cell density, this method guarantees a discrete distribution of cell position respecting the local density function. This method scales to any number of cells, allows to specify several different structures at once with arbitrary shapes and provides a scalable and versatile alternative to the more classical assumption of a uniform non-spatial distribution. Furthermore, several connection schemes can be derived from the paired distances between cells using either an automatic mapping or a user-defined local reference frame, providing new computational properties for the underlying model. The method is illustrated on a discrete homogeneous neural field, on the distribution of cones and rods in the retina and on a coronal view of the basal ganglia.Comment: Corresponding code at https://github.com/rougier/spatial-computatio

Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy

This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical needs of policymakers charged with exploring possible interventions in the context of climate change. By `mainstream' we mean the type of climate science that dominates in universities and research centres, which we will term `academic' climate science, in contrast to `policy' climate science; aspects of this distinction will become clearer in what follows. In a nutshell, we do not think that academic climate science equips climate scientists to be as helpful as they might be, when involved in climate policy assessment. Partly, we attribute this to an over-investment in high resolution climate simulators, and partly to a culture that is uncomfortable with the inherently subjective nature of climate uncertainty.Comment: submitted as contribution to Conceptual Foundations of ClimateModeling, Winsberg, E. and Lloyd, E., eds., The University of Chicago Pres

On the use of simple dynamical systems for climate predictions: A Bayesian prediction of the next glacial inception

Over the last few decades, climate scientists have devoted much effort to the development of large numerical models of the atmosphere and the ocean. While there is no question that such models provide important and useful information on complicated aspects of atmosphere and ocean dynamics, skillful prediction also requires a phenomenological approach, particularly for very slow processes, such as glacial-interglacial cycles. Phenomenological models are often represented as low-order dynamical systems. These are tractable, and a rich source of insights about climate dynamics, but they also ignore large bodies of information on the climate system, and their parameters are generally not operationally defined. Consequently, if they are to be used to predict actual climate system behaviour, then we must take very careful account of the uncertainty introduced by their limitations. In this paper we consider the problem of the timing of the next glacial inception, about which there is on-going debate. Our model is the three-dimensional stochastic system of Saltzman and Maasch (1991), and our inference takes place within a Bayesian framework that allows both for the limitations of the model as a description of the propagation of the climate state vector, and for parametric uncertainty. Our inference takes the form of a data assimilation with unknown static parameters, which we perform with a variant on a Sequential Monte Carlo technique (`particle filter'). Provisional results indicate peak glacial conditions in 60,000 years.Comment: superseeds the arXiv:0809.0632 (which was published in European Reviews). The Bayesian section has been significantly expanded. The present version has gone scientific peer review and has been published in European Physics Special Topics. (typo in DOI and in Table 1 (psi -> theta) corrected on 25th August 2009

A Computational Model of Spatial Memory Anticipation during Visual Search

Some visual search tasks require to memorize the location of stimuli that have been previously scanned. Considerations about the eye movements raise the question of how we are able to maintain a coherent memory, despite the frequent drastically changes in the perception. In this article, we present a computational model that is able to anticipate the consequences of the eye movements on the visual perception in order to update a spatial memor

A computational approach to the covert and overt deployment of spatial attention

Popular computational models of visual attention tend to neglect the influence of saccadic eye movements whereas it has been shown that the primates perform on average three of them per seconds and that the neural substrate for the deployment of attention and the execution of an eye movement might considerably overlap. Here we propose a computational model in which the deployment of attention with or without a subsequent eye movement emerges from local, distributed and numerical computations