On the link between forward energy prices: A nonlinear panel cointegration approach

This paper investigates the relationship between forward prices of oil, gas, coal, and electricity using a nonlinear panel cointegration framework. To this end, we consider a panel of 35 maturities and control for the economic and financial environment using equity futures prices. Estimating the cointegrating relationship, we find that oil, gas and coal forward prices are positively linked, while the negative link between oil and electricity prices is consistent with a substitution effect between the two energy sources on the long run. Estimating panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) models, we show that the forward oil price adjustment process toward its equilibrium value is nonlinear and asymmetric, putting forward the key role played by self-sustaining dynamics and speculation phenomena.forward energy prices, speculation, panel cointegration, nonlinear model, PSTR

Modeling the French Consumption Function Using SETAR Models

We provide new estimations on aggregate consumption series in France using the framework of non-stationary threshold models. Most macroeconomists agree with the idea that, since the beginning of the seventies, the saving ratio has evolved irregularly. Such irregularities are usually interpreted as being caused by mispecification problems or measurement errors. We suggest another explanation that strengthens the role played by structural breaks caused by endogenous factors such as habit formation. In this view, we use threshold models (SETAR) to study both the dynamics of short and long term in order to account for the existence of asymmetric effects in the relationship between consumption and some of its determinants. The estimations and forecasts obtained show that the SETAR error correction model leads to better performance than other specifications such as the usual linear error correction model, the quadratic error correction model and the cubic error correction model.

On price convergence in Eurozone

We investigate price level convergence with Germany in eleven countries belonging to the Eurozone between January 1970 and July 2011. Relying on smooth transition regression models, we show that the price convergence process is nonlinear, depending on the size of the price differential: for most countries, price convergence occurs only when price differentials with Germany exceed a certain threshold. Moreover, our findings put forward some heterogeneity across the Eurozone members in terms of price convergence speed, that can be explained by the evolution of price-competitiveness, rigidities in labor markets, but also by specialization patterns.price convergence, Eurozone, smooth transition regression models, half-life

Variability in stellar granulation and convective blueshift with spectral type and magnetic activity. II. From young to old main-sequence K-G-F stars

The inhibition of small-scale convection in the Sun dominates the long-term radial velocity (RV) variability: it therefore has a critical effect on light exoplanet detectability using RV techniques. We here extend our previous analysis of stellar convective blueshift and its dependence on magnetic activity to a larger sample of stars in order to extend the Teff range, to study the impact of other stellar properties, and finally to improve the comparison between observed RV jitter and expected RV variations. We estimate a differential velocity shift for Fe and Ti lines of different depths and derive an absolute convective blueshift using the Sun as a reference for a sample of 360 F7-K4 stars with different properties (age, Teff, metallicity). We confirm the strong variation in convective blueshift with Teff and its dependence on (as shown in the line list in Paper I) activity level. Although we do not observe a significant effect of age or cyclic activity, stars with a higher metallicity tend to have a lower convective blueshift, with a larger effect than expected from numerical simulations. Finally, we estimate that for 71% of the stars in our sample the RV and LogR'HK variations are compatible with the effect of activity on convection, as observed in the solar case, while for the other stars, other sources (such as binarity or companions) must be invoked to explain the large RV variations. We also confirm a relationship between LogR'HK and metallicity, which may affect discussions of the possible relationship between metallicity and exoplanets, as RV surveys are biased toward low LogR'HK and possibly toward high-metallicity stars. We conclude that activity and metallicity strongly affect the small-scale convection levels in stars in the F7-K4 range, with a lower amplitude for the lower mass stars and a larger amplitude for low-metallicity stars.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures ; accepted in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Hypertensive disorders during pregnancy in pre-gestational diabetic women

Pre-gestational diabetes is often compounded by hypertensive disease of pregnancy. In this study, women diagnosed as suffering from pre-gestational diabetes mellitus (pre-DM) were subdivided into two groups: those found to be suffering from some form of hypertension during their pregnancy (n=18); and those who did not develop hypertension (n=75). The maternal characteristics and perinatal outcome of the two groups were statistically correlated. The results showed that type of diabetes was the only statistically significant correlate to the likelihood to develop hypertension. The infant was more likely to have a higher mean birth weight in pre-DM women with hypertension than those without. Perinatal morbidity and mortality did not show any significant differences.peer-reviewe

Oil Price and the Dollar

The aim of this paper is to test whether a stable long-term relationship exists between oil prices and the US effective exchange rate, expressed in real terms. To this end, weproceed to a cointegration and causality study between the two variables. Our results indicate that causality runs from oil prices to the exchange rate and that the relationship between the two variables is transmitted through the US net foreign asset position.oil prices; effective exchange rate; net foreign asset position; cointegration; causality; error correction model

In-situ materials processing systems and bioregenerative life support systems interrelationships

The synergy and linkages between bioregenerative life support systems and the materials produced by in-situ materials processing systems was investigated. Such systems produce a broad spectrum of byproducts such as oxygen, hydrogen, processed soil material, ceramics, refractory, and other materials. Some of these materials may be utilized by bioregenerative systems either directly or with minor modifications. The main focus of this project was to investigate how these materials can be utilized to assist a bioregenerative life support system. Clearly the need to provide a sustainable bioregenerative life support system for long term human habitation of space is significant

Biomethane technology for grid injection

This is a poster that describes the state-of-the art and perspectives for biomethane as technology for grid injectio

What if the euro had never been launched? A counterfactual analysis of the macroeconomic impact of euro membership

The aim of this paper is to gauge quantitatively the macroeconomic impact of EMU membership. Building on the Global VAR framework designed by Pesaran et al. (2004), we want to shed light on the following important questions: What if the euro had never been launched? How would national outputs and inflation rates have evolved? We show that monetary unification promoted lower interest rates and higher output in most euro area (EA) countries, relatively to a situation where national monetary policies would have followed a German-type one. If national monetary policies had adopted British monetary preferences after September 1992 however, this would have led to higher interest rates, depreciations of national exchange rates and higher output in most EA countries, especially over the 1992-1998 period. This is particularly true for the three biggest countries of the EA (France, Germany and Italy). Besides, the single currency regime probably did not have a massive impact on price developments.Euro, counterfactual analysis, global VAR.