Short-Term Serial Sampling of Natriuretic Peptides in Patients Presenting With Chest Pain

ObjectivesThe purpose of this study was to characterize the diagnostic and prognostic utility of short-term dynamic changes in natriuretic peptides in patients presenting with chest pain.BackgroundAlthough single levels of natriuretic peptides in patients admitted for acute coronary syndromes (ACS) have important prognostic value, it is unclear whether serial sampling of natriuretic peptides might have both diagnostic and prognostic value in the setting of chest pain.MethodsWe followed 276 patients for 90 days who presented to the emergency department with chest pain. We sampled brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and amino-terminal (NT)-proBNP up to 5 times within 24 h of presentation and again at discharge. Follow-up data was collected at 30 and 90 days after admission. Adverse events included emergency department visits for chest pain, cardiac readmission, and death. We assessed the prognostic and diagnostic value of baseline natriuretic peptide measurements with receiver-operating characteristic analyses.ResultsNatriuretic peptides were diagnostic for congestive heart failure (CHF) and new-onset CHF but less so for ACS. The prognostic utility of serial sampling was evaluated through testing the statistical contribution of each future time point (as well as variability over time) over and above the baseline values in logistic regression models.ConclusionsBaseline elevated BNP and NT-proBNP concentrations were predictive of adverse events at 30 and 90 days. Serial sampling did not improve the prognostic value of BNP or NT-proBNP

INCIDENCE OF HIGH GRADE QTCF PROLONGATION AND ITS MANAGEMENT AMONG PATIENTS UNDERGOING TREATMENT FOR DRUG RESISTANT TUBERCULOSIS (DR-TB): CASE SERIES.

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) has approved the use of two new drugs, namely Bedaquiline (Bdq) and Delamanid (Dlm), for treatment of Drug Resistant Tuberculosis (DR-TB). One of the concerns raised with the use of these drugs was QT-interval prolongation. This condition could be serious and life threatening. Hence, knowing the magnitude and its management is very important. This case series identifies the incidence and discusses the management of clinically significant QT-interval prolongation amongst a cohort of patients who have been on these medicines. Materials and Methods: Patients with reports of high grade QT-Interval prolongation (i.e. Grade-3 and Grade-4) were identified from the cohort of 265 patients enrolled on bedaquiline and/delamanid and discussion is made on the pattern, severity and management of each cases identified. Results: Only 4 (1.5%) out of all 265 patients enrolled on Bedaquiline and/or Delamanid have developed high grade QT-Interval prolongation. And all are managed without permanent discontinuation of both drugs. Conclusion: The Incidence of clinically significant QTcF-interval prolongation among DR-TB patients taking bedaquiline and delamanid in Lesotho is low. And almost all cases can be managed with more frequent Electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring and management of other possible causes of QT-interval prolongation without the need to stop one or both drugs permanentl

Decentralized Heart Failure Management in Neno, Malawi

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of death in Malawi. In rural districts, heart failure (HF) care is limited and provided by non-physicians. The causes and patient outcomes of HF in rural Africa are largely unknown. In our study, non-physician providers performed focused cardiac ultrasound (FOCUS) for HF diagnosis and longitudinal clinical follow-up in Neno, Malawi. Objectives: We described the clinical characteristics, HF categories, and outcomes of patients presenting with HF in chronic care clinics in Neno, Malawi. Methods: Between November 2018 and March 2021, non-physician providers performed FOCUS for diagnosis and longitudinal follow-up in an outpatient chronic disease clinic in rural Malawi. A retrospective chart review was performed for HF diagnostic categories, change in clinical status between enrollment and follow-up, and clinical outcomes. For study purposes, cardiologists reviewed all available ultrasound images. Results: There were 178 patients with HF, a median age of 67 years (IQR 44 – 75), and 103 (58%) women. During the study period, patients were enrolled for a mean of 11.5 months (IQR 5.1–16.5), after which 139 (78%) were alive and in care. The most common diagnostic categories by cardiac ultrasound were hypertensive heart disease (36%), cardiomyopathy (26%), and rheumatic, valvular or congenital heart disease (12.3%). At follow-up, the proportion of New York Heart Association (NYHA) class I patients increased from 24% to 50% (p < 0.001; 95% CI: 31.5 – 16.4), and symptoms of orthopnea, edema, fatigue, hypervolemia, and bibasilar crackles all decreased (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Hypertensive heart disease and cardiomyopathy are the predominant causes of HF in this elderly cohort in rural Malawi. Trained non-physician providers can successfully manage HF to improve symptoms and clinical outcomes in limited resource areas. Similar care models could improve healthcare access in other rural African settings

An investment case for the prevention and management of rheumatic heart disease in the African Union 2021-30: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Despite declines in deaths from rheumatic heart disease (RHD) in Africa over the past 30 years, it remains a major cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality on the continent. We present an investment case for interventions to prevent and manage RHD in the African Union (AU). METHODS: We created a cohort state-transition model to estimate key outcomes in the disease process, including cases of pharyngitis from group A streptococcus, episodes of acute rheumatic fever (ARF), cases of RHD, heart failure, and deaths. With this model, we estimated the impact of scaling up interventions using estimates of effect sizes from published studies. We estimated the cost to scale up coverage of interventions and summarised the benefits by monetising health gains estimated in the model using a full income approach. Costs and benefits were compared using the benefit-cost ratio and the net benefits with discounted costs and benefits. FINDINGS: Operationally achievable levels of scale-up of interventions along the disease spectrum, including primary prevention, secondary prevention, platforms for management of heart failure, and heart valve surgery could avert 74 000 (UI 50 000-104 000) deaths from RHD and ARF from 2021 to 2030 in the AU, reaching a 30·7% (21·6-39·0) reduction in the age-standardised death rate from RHD in 2030, compared with no increase in coverage of interventions. The estimated benefit-cost ratio for plausible scale-up of secondary prevention and secondary and tertiary care interventions was 4·7 (2·9-6·3) with a net benefit of $2·8 billion (1·6-3·9; 2019 US$) through 2030. The estimated benefit-cost ratio for primary prevention scale-up was low to 2030 (0·2, <0·1-0·4), increasing with delayed benefits accrued to 2090. The benefit-cost dynamics of primary prevention were sensitive to the costs of different delivery approaches, uncertain epidemiological parameters regarding group A streptococcal pharyngitis and ARF, assumptions about long-term demographic and economic trends, and discounting. INTERPRETATION: Increased coverage of interventions to control and manage RHD could accelerate progress towards eradication in AU member states. Gaps in local epidemiological data and particular components of the disease process create uncertainty around the level of benefits. In the short term, costs of secondary prevention and secondary and tertiary care for RHD are lower than for primary prevention, and benefits accrue earlier. FUNDING: World Heart Federation, Leona M and Harry B Helmsley Charitable Trust, and American Heart Association

Prioritizing Health-Sector Interventions for Noncommunicable Diseases and Injuries in Low- and Lower-Middle Income Countries: National NCDI Poverty Commissions

Health sector priorities and interventions to prevent and manage noncommunicable diseases and injuries (NCDIs) in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs) have primarily adopted elements of the World Health Organization Global Action Plan for NCDs 2013–2020. However, there have been limited efforts in LLMICs to prioritize among conditions and health-sector interventions for NCDIs based on local epidemiology and contextually relevant risk factors or that incorporate the equitable distribution of health outcomes. The Lancet Commission on Reframing Noncommunicable Diseases and Injuries for the Poorest Billion supported national NCDI Poverty Commissions to define local NCDI epidemiology, determine an expanded set of priority NCDI conditions, and recommend cost-effective, equitable health-sector interventions. Fifteen national commissions and 1 state-level commission were established from 2016–2019. Six commissions completed the prioritization exercise and selected an average of 25 NCDI conditions; 15 conditions were selected by all commissions, including asthma, breast cancer, cervical cancer, diabetes mellitus type 1 and 2, epilepsy, hypertensive heart disease, intracerebral hemorrhage, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, major depressive disorder, motor vehicle road injuries, rheumatic heart disease, sickle cell disorders, and subarachnoid hemorrhage. The commissions prioritized an average of 35 health-sector interventions based on cost-effectiveness, financial risk protection, and equity-enhancing rankings. The prioritized interventions were estimated to cost an additional US$4.70–US$13.70 per capita or approximately 9.7%–35.6% of current total health expenditure (0.6%–4.0% of current gross domestic product). Semistructured surveys and qualitative interviews of commission representatives demonstrated positive outcomes in several thematic areas, including understanding NCDIs of poverty, informing national planning and implementation of NCDI health-sector interventions, and improving governance and coordination for NCDIs. Overall, national NCDI Poverty Commissions provided a platform for evidence-based, locally driven determination of priorities within NCDIs.publishedVersio

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure

A community approach to mortality prediction in sepsis via gene expression analysis.

Improved risk stratification and prognosis prediction in sepsis is a critical unmet need. Clinical severity scores and available assays such as blood lactate reflect global illness severity with suboptimal performance, and do not specifically reveal the underlying dysregulation of sepsis. Here, we present prognostic models for 30-day mortality generated independently by three scientific groups by using 12 discovery cohorts containing transcriptomic data collected from primarily community-onset sepsis patients. Predictive performance is validated in five cohorts of community-onset sepsis patients in which the models show summary AUROCs ranging from 0.765-0.89. Similar performance is observed in four cohorts of hospital-acquired sepsis. Combining the new gene-expression-based prognostic models with prior clinical severity scores leads to significant improvement in prediction of 30-day mortality as measured via AUROC and net reclassification improvement index These models provide an opportunity to develop molecular bedside tests that may improve risk stratification and mortality prediction in patients with sepsis.y NIGMS Glue Grant Legacy Award R24GM102656. J.F.B.-M., R.A., and E.T. were supported by Instituto de Salud Carlos III (grants EMER07/050, PI13/02110, PI16/01156). R.J.L. was supported by the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the National Institutes of Health under award number UL1TR001417. The CAPSOD study was supported by NIH (U01AI066569, P20RR016480, HHSN266200400064C). P.K. is supported by grants from Bill Melinda Gates Foundation, R01 AI125197-01, 1U19AI109662, and U19AI057229, outside the submitted work. The GAinS study was supported by the National Institute for Health Research through the Comprehensive Clinical Research Network for patient recruitment; Wellcome Trust (Grants 074318 [to J.C.K.], and 090532/Z/09/Z [core facilities Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics including High-Throughput Genomics Group]); European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013)/ERC Grant agreement no. 281824 (to J.C.K.), the Medical Research Council (98082 [to J.C.K.]); UK Intensive Care Society; and NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. The Duke HAI study was supported by a research agreement between Duke University and Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics, Inc. According to the terms of the agreement, representatives of the sponsor had an opportunity to review and comment on a draft of the manuscript. The authors had full control of the analyses, the preparation of the manuscript, and the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. For the University of Florida ‘P50’ Study, data were obtained from the Sepsis and Critically Illness Research Center (SCIRC) at the University of Florida College of Medicine, which is supported in part by NIGMS P50 GM111152. This work was supported by Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and the Army Research Office through Grant W911NF-15-1-0107.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. INTERPRETATION: Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation