A reliable rainfall–runoff model for flood forecasting: review and application to a semi-urbanized watershed at high flood risk in Italy

Many rainfall–runoff (RR) models are available in the scientific literature. Selecting the best structure and parameterization for a model is not straightforward and depends on a broad number of factors, including climatic conditions, catchment characteristics, temporal/spatial resolution and model objectives. In this study, the RR model 'Modello Idrologico Semi-Distribuito in continuo' (MISDc), mainly developed for flood simulation in Mediterranean basins, was tested on the Seveso basin, which is stressed several times a year by flooding events mainly caused by excessive urbanization. The work summarizes a compendium of the MISDc applications over a wide range of catchments in European countries and then it analyses the performances over the Seveso basin. The results show a good fit behaviour during both the calibration and the validation periods with a Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient index larger than 0.9. Moreover, the median volume and peak discharge errors calculated on several flood events were less than 25%. In conclusion, we can be assured that the reliability and computational speed could make the MISDc model suitable for flood estimation in many catchments of different geographical contexts and land use characteristics. Moreover, MISDc will also be useful for future support of real-time decision-making for flood risk management in the Seveso basin

Report of work on ankylosing spondylitics in Hong Kong, 1982-1985

published_or_final_versionC Medico-social Problems in Ankylosing Spondylitics R. Leung, P. Leung, E. Ho Leung, P. Ho, E. 53ii O.P.L.L. and A.S. With Traumatic Tetraparesis E. Ho, J.C.Y. Leong Ho, E. Leong, J. C. Y.i Cauda Equina Syndrome E. Ho, M. Yuen, L. Ma, L.C.S. Hsu Ho, E. Yeun, M. Ma, L. Hsu, L. C. S.E Study On Pain in Ankylosing Spondylitics C. Hsu Hsu, C. 65D Clinical Psychological Problems in Ankylosing Spondylitics P. Leung, P. Lee, F. L. Mak, E. Ho Leung, P. Lee, P. Mak, F. L. Ho, E. 57B Physiotherapy in Ankylosing Spondylitics D. Wong, J.M. Bourne, E. Ho Wong, D. Bourne, J. M. Ho, E. 51A Occupational Therapy in Ankylosing Spondylitics K. Chan, E. Ho Chan, K. Ho, E. 47G Neurological Complications in Ankylosing Spondylitis 37F Family Screening in Ankylosing Spondylitis in Hong Kong Chinese E. Ho Ho, E. 35E Radiological Study of Spinal Pseudoarthrosis in Ankylosing Spondylitis F. L. Chan, E. Ho, L.C.S. Hsu, D. Fang, J.C.Y. Leong Chan, F. L. Ho, E. Hsu, L. C. S. Fang, D. Leong, J. C. Y. 23D Radiological Study of the Ossification Pattern in the Spine Affected By Ankylosing Spondylitis E. Ho, F. L. Chan, L.C.S. Hsu, J.C.Y. Leong, A.C.M.C. Yau Ho, E. Chan, F. L. Hsu, L. C. S. Leong, J. C. Y. Yau, A. C. M. C. 19C Total Hip Arthroplasty in Ankylosing Spondylitis - a Review of 40 Cases E. Ho, D. Fang, L.C.S. Hsu, J.C.Y. Leong Ho, E. Fang, D. Hsu, L. C. S. Leong, J. C. Y. 11B Hla B27 Testing in Hong Kong Chinese E. Ho, S.C.F. Yuen, L.C.S. Hsu, S.P. Chow, J.C.Y. Leong Ho, E. Yuen, S. C. F. Hsu, L. C. S. CHOW. S. P. Leong, J. C. Y. 7A Clinical Review of 100 Cases of Ankylosing Spondylitics in Hong Kong Chinese E. Ho, L.C.S. Hsu, S.P. Chow, J.C.Y. Leong Ho, E. Hsu, L. C. S. Chow, S. P. Leong, J. C. Y. 1V The Future of Ankylosing Spondylitics in Hong Kong E. Ho Ho, E. 117IV The Ankylosing Spondylitis PHAB Club in Hong Kong M. B. Lee, E. Ho Lee, M. B. Ho, E. 115III Paramedical Management ReviewII Medical and Surgical AspectsPermission Had Been Obtained From the Publishers to Include These Manuscripts in This ReportManuscript IIG (ii) Had Been Accepted For Publication in SpineManuscripts IIA, IIB, IID Had Been Published/accepted For Publication in the Journal of Western Pacific Orthopaedic AssociationManuscript IIID Had Been Published in the Journal of the Hong Kong Psychiatric AssociationPreface E. Ho Ho, E.I Foreword M.B. Lee Lee, M. B

Inclusive search for supersymmetry using razor variables in pp collisions at root s=13 TeV

Peer reviewe

On the jets, kinks, and spheromaks formed by a planar magnetized coaxial gun

Measurements of the various plasma configurations produced by a planar magnetized coaxial gun provide insight into the magnetic topology evolution resulting from magnetic helicity injection. Important features of the experiments are a very simple coaxial gun design so that all observed geometrical complexity is due to the intrinsic physical dynamics rather than the source shape and use of a fast multiple-frame digital camera which provides direct imaging of topologically complex shapes and dynamics. Three key experimental findings were obtained: (1) formation of an axial collimated jet [Hsu and Bellan, Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 334, 257 (2002)] that is consistent with a magnetohydrodynamic description of astrophysical jets, (2) identification of the kink instability when this jet satisfies the Kruskal-Shafranov limit, and (3) the nonlinear properties of the kink instability providing a conversion of toroidal to poloidal flux as required for spheromak formation by a coaxial magnetized source [Hsu and Bellan, Phys. Rev. Lett. 90, 215002 (2003)]. A new interpretation is proposed for how the n=1 central column instability provides flux amplification during spheromak formation and sustainment, and it is shown that jet collimation can occur within one rotation of the background poloidal field.Comment: Physics of Plasmas (accepted

Health state utility data in Cystic Fibrosis: A systematic review

Introduction: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a life-limiting, hereditable condition, with the highest prevalence in Europe. CF treatments have led to improvements in clinical symptoms, disease management and decelerated disease progression. However, little is known about the health state utility (HSU) associated with CF disease states, adverse events, and changes in disease severity. Although HSU data have contributed to existing health economic modelling studies, a lack of such data have been highlighted. This systematic review aims to provide a summary of HSU-related research in CF and highlight related research gaps. Methods: Online searches were performed in six databases and studies in any of the following categories were included: (1) estimation of HSUs in CF; (2) mapping studies between patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) and HSUs; (3) economic evaluations on the management of CF that report primary HSU data; and (4) any CF clinical trial that reported HSU as an outcome. Results: A total of 17 studies were reviewed, of which 12 provided HSU values for specific CF populations. The remaining five articles provided HSU data that were broken down by CF relevant health states, including lung transplantations, pulmonary exacerbation (PEx) events and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV 1). Conclusion: Current HSU data in CF are limited and there is considerable scope for further research, both in providing HSU values for CF and in investigating methods for HSU elicitation/evaluation in CF populations

Universal scaling functions for bond percolation on planar random and square lattices with multiple percolating clusters

Percolation models with multiple percolating clusters have attracted much attention in recent years. Here we use Monte Carlo simulations to study bond percolation on $L_{1}\times L_{2}$ planar random lattices, duals of random lattices, and square lattices with free and periodic boundary conditions, in vertical and horizontal directions, respectively, and with various aspect ratio $L_{1}/L_{2}$. We calculate the probability for the appearance of $n$ percolating clusters, $W_{n},$ the percolating probabilities, $P$, the average fraction of lattice bonds (sites) in the percolating clusters, $_{n}$ ($_{n}$), and the probability distribution function for the fraction $c$ of lattice bonds (sites), in percolating clusters of subgraphs with $n$ percolating clusters, $f_{n}(c^{b})$ ($f_{n}(c^{s})$). Using a small number of nonuniversal metric factors, we find that $W_{n}$, $P$, $_{n}$ ($_{n}$), and $f_{n}(c^{b})$ ($f_{n}(c^{s})$) for random lattices, duals of random lattices, and square lattices have the same universal finite-size scaling functions. We also find that nonuniversal metric factors are independent of boundary conditions and aspect ratios.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figure

Pao-Lu Hsu (Xu, Bao-lu): The Grandparent of Probability and Statistics in China

The years 1910-1911 are auspicious years in Chinese mathematics with the births of Pao-Lu Hsu, Luo-Keng Hua and Shiing-Shen Chern. These three began the development of modern mathematics in China: Hsu in probability and statistics, Hua in number theory, and Chern in differential geometry. We here review some facts about the life of P.-L. Hsu which have been uncovered recently, and then discuss some of his contributions. We have drawn heavily on three papers in the 1979 Annals of Statistics (volume 7, pages 467-483) by T. W. Anderson, K. L. Chung and E. L. Lehmann, as well as an article by Jiang Ze-Han and Duan Xue-Fu in Hsu's collected papers.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-STS387 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Cross-sectional associations of depressive symptom severity and functioning with health service use by older people in low-and-middle income countries

Background: Comprehensive understanding of the determinants of health service use (HSU) by older people with depression is essential for health service planning for an ageing global population. This study aimed to determine the extent to which depressive symptom severity and functioning are associated with HSU by older people with depression in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of the 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based surveys dataset. Participants (n = 4590) were those aged 65 or older, in the clinical range for depressive symptoms (defined as scoring four or more on the EURO-D), living in 13 urban and/or rural catchment areas in nine LMICs. Associations were calculated using Poisson regression and random-effects meta-analysis. Results: After adjustment for confounding variables, (EURO-D) depressive symptom severity was significantly associated with “any community HSU” (Pooled Prevalence Ratios = 1.02; 95% CI = 1.01–1.03) but not hospital admission. Conversely, after adjustment, (WHODAS-II) functioning was significantly associated with hospital admission (Pooled PR = 1.14; 95% CI = 1.02–1.26) but not “any community HSU”. Conclusions: Depressive symptom severity does not explain a large proportion of the variance in HSU by older people with depression in LMICs. The association of functioning with this HSU is worthy of further investigation. In LMICs, variables related to accessibility may be more important correlates of HSU than variables directly related to health problems