Value of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein assays in predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) assays to see whether these tests are predictive of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after cardioversion. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane databases as well as a hand search of the reference lists in the retrieved articles from inception to December 2013. Study eligibility criteria This review selected observational studies in which the measurements of serum CRP were used to predict AF recurrence. An hs-CRP assay was defined as any CRP test capable of measuring serum CRP to below 0.6 mg/dL. Primary and secondary outcome measures We summarised test performance characteristics with the use of forest plots, hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves and bivariate random effects models. Meta-regression analysis was performed to explore the source of heterogeneity. Results: We included nine qualifying studies comprising a total of 347 patients with AF recurrence and 335 controls. A CRP level higher than the optimal cut-off point was an independent predictor of AF recurrence after cardioversion (summary adjusted OR: 3.33; 95% CI 2.10 to 5.28). The estimated pooled sensitivity and specificity for hs-CRP was 71.0% (95% CI 63% to 78%) and 72.0% (61% to 81%), respectively. Most studies used a CRP cut-off point of 1.9 mg/L to predict long-term AF recurrence (77% sensitivity, 65% specificity), and 3 mg/L to predict short-term AF recurrence (73% sensitivity, 71% specificity). Conclusions: hs-CRP assays are moderately accurate in predicting AF recurrence after successful cardioversion

Procalcitonin as a marker of bacterial infection in the emergency department: an observational study

INTRODUCTION: Procalcitonin (PCT) has been proposed as a marker of infection in critically ill patients; its level is related to the severity of infection. We evaluated the value of PCT as a marker of bacterial infection for emergency department patients. METHODS: This prospective observational study consecutively enrolled 120 adult atraumatic patients admitted through the emergency department of a 3000-bed tertiary university hospital in May 2001. Fifty-eight patients were infected and 49 patients were not infected. The white blood cell counts, the serum C-reactive protein (CRP) level (mg/l), and the PCT level (ng/ml) were compared between the infected and noninfected groups of patients. RESULTS: A white blood cell count >12,000/mm(3 )or <4000/mm(3 )was present in 36.2% of the infected patients and in 18.4% of the noninfected patients. The best cut-off serum levels for PCT and CRP, identified using the Youden's Index, were 0.6 ng/ml and 60 mg/l, respectively. Compared with CRP, PCT had a comparable sensitivity (69.5% versus 67.2%), a lower specificity (64.6% versus 93.9%), and a lower area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.689 versus 0.879). PCT levels, but not CRP levels, were significantly higher in bacteremic and septic shock patients. Multivariate logistic regression identified that a PCT level ≥ 2.6 ng/ml was independently associated with the development of septic shock (odds ratio, 38.3; 95% confidence interval, 5.6–263.5; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: PCT is not a better marker of bacterial infection than CRP for adult emergency department patients, but it is a useful marker of the severity of infection

Multiplex PCR System for Rapid Detection of Pathogens in Patients with Presumed Sepsis – A Systemic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Blood culture is viewed as the golden standard for the diagnosis of sepsis but suffers from low sensitivity and long turnaround time. LightCycler SeptiFast (LC-SF) is a real-time multiplex polymerase chain reaction test able to detect 25 common pathogens responsible for bloodstream infections within hours. We aim to assess the accuracy of LC-SF by systematically reviewing the published studies. Method Related literature on Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases was searched up to October 2012 for studies utilizing LC-SF to diagnose suspected sepsis and that provided sufficient data to construct two-by-two tables. Results: A total of 34 studies enrolling 6012 patients of suspected sepsis were included. The overall sensitivity and specificity for LC-SF to detect bacteremia or fungemia was 0·75 (95% CI: 0·65–0·83) and 0·92 (95%CI:0·90–0·95), respectively. LC-SF had a high positive likelihood ratio (10·10) and a moderate negative likelihood ratio (0·27). Specifically, LC-SF had a sensitivity of 0·80 (95%CI: 0·70–0·88) and a specificity of 0·95(95%CI: 0·93–0·97) for the bacteremia outcome, and a sensitivity of 0·61 (95%CI: 0·48–0·72) and a specificity of 0·99 (95%CI: 0·99–0·99) for the fungemia outcome. High heterogeneity was found in the bacteremia outcome subgroup but not in the fungemia outcome subgroup. Conclusion: LC-SF is of high rule-in value for early detection of septic patients. In a population with low pretest probability, LC-SF test can still provide valuable information for ruling out bacteremia or fungemia

An Efficient Strategy for Broad-Range Detection of Low Abundance Bacteria without DNA Decontamination of PCR Reagents

BACKGROUND: Bacterial DNA contamination in PCR reagents has been a long standing problem that hampers the adoption of broad-range PCR in clinical and applied microbiology, particularly in detection of low abundance bacteria. Although several DNA decontamination protocols have been reported, they all suffer from compromised PCR efficiency or detection limits. To date, no satisfactory solution has been found. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We herein describe a method that solves this long standing problem by employing a broad-range primer extension-PCR (PE-PCR) strategy that obviates the need for DNA decontamination. In this method, we first devise a fusion probe having a 3'-end complementary to the template bacterial sequence and a 5'-end non-bacterial tag sequence. We then hybridize the probes to template DNA, carry out primer extension and remove the excess probes using an optimized enzyme mix of Klenow DNA polymerase and exonuclease I. This strategy allows the templates to be distinguished from the PCR reagent contaminants and selectively amplified by PCR. To prove the concept, we spiked the PCR reagents with Staphylococcus aureus genomic DNA and applied PE-PCR to amplify template bacterial DNA. The spiking DNA neither interfered with template DNA amplification nor caused false positive of the reaction. Broad-range PE-PCR amplification of the 16S rRNA gene was also validated and minute quantities of template DNA (10-100 fg) were detectable without false positives. When adapting to real-time and high-resolution melting (HRM) analytical platforms, the unique melting profiles for the PE-PCR product can be used as the molecular fingerprints to further identify individual bacterial species. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Broad-range PE-PCR is simple, efficient, and completely obviates the need to decontaminate PCR reagents. When coupling with real-time and HRM analyses, it offers a new avenue for bacterial species identification with a limited source of bacterial DNA, making it suitable for use in clinical and applied microbiology laboratories

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10–24 years, 1950–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Summary: Background Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10–14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15–19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1–4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1–4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0–24 years that occurred in people aged 10–24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. Interpretation Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10–24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Evaluation of the Value of Rapid D-Dimer Test in Conjunction with Cardiac Troponin I Test for Early Risk Stratification of Myocardial Infarction

We sought to determine the diagnostic value of a D-dimer test for myocardial infarction (MI). The prospective cohort study was carried in the ED of a university hospital. All included patients were tested for D- dimer and cardiac troponin I (cTnI) on ED admission and additional cTnI 6 h later. AMI was retrospectively confirmed by employing the ESC-ACC-AHA- WHF 2007 universal definition. The discriminative value of D-dimer test was assessed by ROC curve analysis. Multivariate analysis was used to identify independent risk factors associated with D-dimer elevation other than MI. A total of 178 patients were included in this study. Median D- dimer levels were significantly higher in MI patients. A D-dimer value greater than 200 ng/ml was significantly associated with MI. When used alone, the test has a high sensitivity of 91.8% but a low specificity of 23. 9%. Combined use of cTnI and D-dimer tests raised the sensitivity to 98.4% and helped early triage a subgroup of low risk patients. However, the test had the downside of 58% false positives. High false positives could be partly explained by the high prevalence of underlying hypercoagulable comorbidities. Diabetes mellitus with chronic renal insufficiency was identified as the strongest risk factor associated with D-dimer elevation in patients without MI. D-dimer test alone has a low diagnostic value for MI. Co-existing hypercoagulable conditions may confound the results. Combining cTnI and D-dimer tests enables early identification a low risk group of patients for MI at the cost of high false positives