Long-memory processes in global ozone and temperature variations

International audienceGlobal column ozone and tropospheric temperature observations made by ground-based (1964?2004) and satellite-borne (1978?2004) instrumentation are analyzed. Ozone and temperature fluctuations in small time-intervals are found to be positively correlated to those in larger time-intervals in a power-law fashion. For temperature, the exponent of this dependence is larger in the mid-latitudes than in the tropics at long time scales, while for ozone, the exponent is larger in tropics than in the mid-latitudes. The ability of the models to reproduce this scaling could be a good test for improved predictions of future variations in ozone layer and global warming

Long-memory processes in ozone and temperature variations at the region 60° S?60° N

International audienceGlobal column ozone and tropospheric temperature observations made by ground-based (1964?2004) and satellite-borne (1978?2004) instrumentation are analyzed. Ozone and temperature fluctuations in small time-intervals are found to be positively correlated to those in larger time-intervals in a power-law fashion. For temperature, the exponent of this dependence is larger in the mid-latitudes than in the tropics at long time scales, while for ozone, the exponent is larger in tropics than in the mid-latitudes. In general, greater persistence could be a result of either stronger positive feedbacks or larger inertia. Therefore, the increased slope of the power distribution of temperature in mid-latitudes at long time scales compared to the slope in the tropics could be connected to the poleward increase in climate sensitivity predicted by the global climate models. The detrended fluctuation analysis of model and observed time series provides a helpful tool for visualizing errors in the treatment of long-range correlations, whose correct modeling would greatly enhance confidence in long-term climate and atmospheric chemistry modeling

Maintenance of polar stratospheric clouds in a moist stratosphere

Previous work has shown that polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) could have acted to substantially warm high latitude regions during past warm climates such as the Eocene (55 Ma). Using a simple model of stratospheric water vapor transport and polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, we investigate the dependence of PSC optical depth on tropopause temperature, cloud microphysical parameters, stratospheric overturning, and tropospheric methane. We show that PSC radiative effects can help slow removal of water from the stratosphere via self-heating. However, we also show that the ability of PSCs to have a substantial impact on climate depends strongly on the PSC particle number density and the strength of the overturning circulation. Thus even a large source of stratospheric water vapor (e.g. from methane oxidation) will not result in substantial PSC radiative effects unless PSC ice crystal number density is high compared to most current observations, and stratospheric overturning (which modulates polar stratospheric temperatures) is low. These results are supported by analysis of a series of runs of the NCAR WACCM model with methane concentrations varying up to one thousand times present levels

Laguna de los Datos: Usos y Percepciones de RNU Laguna de Los Patos, Río Grande, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina

La protección de las áreas naturales urbanas es un tema importante que requiere tanta atención a los aspectos humanos de estos espacios como a sus características naturales. Río Grande, Argentina tiene un sistema de reservas naturales urbanas (RNUs) que comenzó en 2012 para proteger el hábitat de las aves migratorias en la ciudad. En este proyecto, estudié las actividades y las percepciones de los visitantes de una de estas reservas, RNU Laguna de los Patos. Conté todas las personas que visitaron la reserva durante 13 días, registrando lo que hicieron y cuánto tiempo se quedaron. También encuesté a una muestra de los visitantes y les pregunté sobre su uso de la reserva y sus opiniones. Descubrí que la cantidad de visitantes en la reserva variaba mucho y dependía del clima. Las respuestas a mi encuesta mostraron que los visitantes valoran la reserva igualmente por sus aspectos sociales y ambientales y, en general, aprobaron las restricciones actuales en el espacio. Las sugerencias para mejorar la reserva incluyeron plantar más árboles, mantenerla más y añadir más lugares para sentarse. Recomiendo que se realicen estudios similares en otras reservas de la ciudad. The protection of urban natural areas is an important issue that requires as much attention to the human aspects of these spaces as to their natural features. Río Grande, Argentina has a system of urban natural reserves started in 2012 to protect the habitat of migratory birds in the city. In this project, I studied the activities and perceptions of visitors to one of these reserves, the Laguna de los Patos (Duck Lake). I counted all of the people who visited the reserve for 13 days, recording what they did and for how long they stayed. I also surveyed a sample of the visitors and asked them about their use of the reserve and opinions of it. I found that the number of visitors in the reserve varied greatly and was dependent on the weather. Responses to my survey showed that visitors value the reserve equally for its social and environmental aspects and generally approved of the current restrictions in the space. Suggestions to improve the reserve included planting more trees, maintaining it more, and adding more places to sit. I recommend that similar studies be done in the city’s other reserves

Climate model shows large-scale wind and solar farms in the Sahara increase rain and vegetation

More energy, more rain Energy generation by wind and solar farms could reduce carbon emissions and thus mitigate anthropogenic climate change. But is this its only benefit? Li et al. conducted experiments using a climate model to show that the installation of large-scale wind and solar power generation facilities in the Sahara could cause more local rainfall, particularly in the neighboring Sahel region. This effect, caused by a combination of increased surface drag and reduced albedo, could increase coverage by vegetation, creating a positive feedback that would further increase rainfall.Wind and solar farms offer a major pathway to clean, renewable energies. However, these farms would significantly change land surface properties, and, if sufficiently large, the farms may lead to unintended climate consequences. In this study, we used a climate model with dynamic vegetation to show that large-scale installations of wind and solar farms covering the Sahara lead to a local temperature increase and more than a twofold precipitation increase, especially in the Sahel, through increased surface friction and reduced albedo. The resulting increase in vegetation further enhances precipitation, creating a positive albedo–precipitation–vegetation feedback that contributes ~80% of the precipitation increase for wind farms. This local enhancement is scale dependent and is particular to the Sahara, with small impacts in other deserts.Y.L. acknowledges support from the National Key R&D Program of China (no. 2017YFA0604701). E.K. and S.M. acknowledge Lev Gandin funding (grant 2956713) provided by G. Brin. The authors thank the University of Maryland and the Univ. of Illinois for supercomputing resources—in particular, the Deepthought2 (http://hpcc.umd.edu) and Bluewaters (www.ncsa.illinois.edu/enabling/bluewaters) supercomputers—made available for conducting the research reported in this paper

A novel satellite mission concept for upper air water vapour, aerosol and cloud observations using integrated path differential absorption LiDAR limb sounding

We propose a new satellite mission to deliver high quality measurements of upper air water vapour. The concept centres around a LiDAR in limb sounding by occultation geometry, designed to operate as a very long path system for differential absorption measurements. We present a preliminary performance analysis with a system sized to send 75 mJ pulses at 25 Hz at four wavelengths close to 935 nm, to up to 5 microsatellites in a counter-rotating orbit, carrying retroreflectors characterized by a reflected beam divergence of roughly twice the emitted laser beam divergence of 15 µrad. This provides water vapour profiles with a vertical sampling of 110 m; preliminary calculations suggest that the system could detect concentrations of less than 5 ppm. A secondary payload of a fairly conventional medium resolution multispectral radiometer allows wide-swath cloud and aerosol imaging. The total weight and power of the system are estimated at 3 tons and 2,700 W respectively. This novel concept presents significant challenges, including the performance of the lasers in space, the tracking between the main spacecraft and the retroreflectors, the refractive effects of turbulence, and the design of the telescopes to achieve a high signal-to-noise ratio for the high precision measurements. The mission concept was conceived at the Alpbach Summer School 2010

Synaesthesia in Chinese characters: the role of radical function and position

Grapheme-colour synaesthetes experience unusual colour percepts when they encounter letters and/or digits. Studies of English-speaking grapheme-colour synaesthetes have shown that synaesthetic colours are sometimes triggered by rule-based linguistic mechanisms (e.g., B might be blue). In contrast, little is known about synaesthesia in logographic languages such as Chinese. The current study shows the mechanisms by which synaesthetic speakers of Chinese colour their language. One hypothesis is that Chinese characters might be coloured by their constituent morphological units, known as radicals, and we tested this by eliciting synaesthetic colours for characters while manipulating features of the radicals within them. We found that both the function (semantic vs. phonetic) and position (left vs. right) of radicals influence the nature of the synaesthetic colour generated. Our data show that in Chinese, as in English, synaesthetic colours are influenced by systematic rules, rather than by random associations, and that these rules are based on existing psycholinguistic mechanisms of language processing

On spurious detection of linear response and misuse of the fluctuation–dissipation theorem in finite time series

Using a sensitive statistical test we determine whether or not one can detect the breakdown of linear response given observations of deterministic dynamical systems. A goodness-of-fit statistics is developed for a linear statistical model of the observations, based on results for central limit theorems for deterministic dynamical systems, and used to detect linear response breakdown. We apply the method to discrete maps which do not obey linear response and show that the successful detection of breakdown depends on the length of the time series, the magnitude of the perturbation and on the choice of the observable. We find that in order to reliably reject the assumption of linear response for typical observables sufficiently large data sets are needed. Even for simple systems such as the logistic map, one needs of the order of observations to reliably detect the breakdown with a confidence level of ; if less observations are available one may be falsely led to conclude that linear response theory is valid. The amount of data required is larger the smaller the applied perturbation. For judiciously chosen observables the necessary amount of data can be drastically reduced, but requires detailed a priori knowledge about the invariant measure which is typically not available for complex dynamical systems. Furthermore we explore the use of the fluctuation–dissipation theorem (FDT) in cases with limited data length or coarse-graining of observations. The FDT, if applied naively to a system without linear response, is shown to be very sensitive to the details of the sampling method, resulting in erroneous predictions of the response

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

A multiple proxy and model study of Cretaceous upper ocean temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography 21 (2206): PA2002, doi:10.1029/2005PA001203.We estimate tropical Atlantic upper ocean temperatures using oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca ratios in well-preserved planktonic foraminifera extracted from Albian through Santonian black shales recovered during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 207 (North Atlantic Demerara Rise). On the basis of a range of plausible assumptions regarding seawater composition at the time the data support temperatures between 33° and 42°C. In our low-resolution data set spanning ~84–100 Ma a local temperature maximum occurs in the late Turonian, and a possible minimum occurs in the mid to early late Cenomanian. The relation between single species foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca suggests that the ratio of magnesium to calcium in the Turonian-Coniacian ocean may have been lower than in the Albian-Cenomanian ocean, perhaps coincident with an ocean 87Sr/86Sr minimum. The carbon isotopic compositions of distinct marine algal biomarkers were measured in the same sediment samples. The δ13C values of phytane, combined with foraminiferal δ13C and inferred temperatures, were used to estimate atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations through this interval. Estimates of atmospheric CO2 concentrations range between 600 and 2400 ppmv. Within the uncertainty in the various proxies, there is only a weak overall correspondence between higher (lower) tropical temperatures and more (less) atmospheric CO2. The GENESIS climate model underpredicts tropical Atlantic temperatures inferred from ODP Leg 207 foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca when we specify approximate CO2 concentrations estimated from the biomarker isotopes in the same samples. Possible errors in the temperature and CO2 estimates and possible deficiencies in the model are discussed. The potential for and effects of substantially higher atmospheric methane during Cretaceous anoxic events, perhaps derived from high fluxes from the oxygen minimum zone, are considered in light of recent work that shows a quadratic relation between increased methane flux and atmospheric CH4 concentrations. With 50 ppm CH4, GENESIS sea surface temperatures approximate the minimum upper ocean temperatures inferred from proxy data when CO2 concentrations specified to the model are near those inferred using the phytane δ13C proxy. However, atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 3500 ppm or more are still required in the model in order to reproduce inferred maximum temperatures.Funding for this research was provided by the U.S. Science Support Program of the JOI, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research, and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft through the DFG-Research Center Ocean Margins