Understanding Terrorist Organizations with a Dynamic Model

Terrorist organizations change over time because of processes such as recruitment and training as well as counter-terrorism (CT) measures, but the effects of these processes are typically studied qualitatively and in separation from each other. Seeking a more quantitative and integrated understanding, we constructed a simple dynamic model where equations describe how these processes change an organization's membership. Analysis of the model yields a number of intuitive as well as novel findings. Most importantly it becomes possible to predict whether counter-terrorism measures would be sufficient to defeat the organization. Furthermore, we can prove in general that an organization would collapse if its strength and its pool of foot soldiers decline simultaneously. In contrast, a simultaneous decline in its strength and its pool of leaders is often insufficient and short-termed. These results and other like them demonstrate the great potential of dynamic models for informing terrorism scholarship and counter-terrorism policy making.Comment: To appear as Springer Lecture Notes in Computer Science v2: vectorized 4 figures, fixed two typos, more detailed bibliograph

A novel satellite mission concept for upper air water vapour, aerosol and cloud observations using integrated path differential absorption LiDAR limb sounding

We propose a new satellite mission to deliver high quality measurements of upper air water vapour. The concept centres around a LiDAR in limb sounding by occultation geometry, designed to operate as a very long path system for differential absorption measurements. We present a preliminary performance analysis with a system sized to send 75 mJ pulses at 25 Hz at four wavelengths close to 935 nm, to up to 5 microsatellites in a counter-rotating orbit, carrying retroreflectors characterized by a reflected beam divergence of roughly twice the emitted laser beam divergence of 15 µrad. This provides water vapour profiles with a vertical sampling of 110 m; preliminary calculations suggest that the system could detect concentrations of less than 5 ppm. A secondary payload of a fairly conventional medium resolution multispectral radiometer allows wide-swath cloud and aerosol imaging. The total weight and power of the system are estimated at 3 tons and 2,700 W respectively. This novel concept presents significant challenges, including the performance of the lasers in space, the tracking between the main spacecraft and the retroreflectors, the refractive effects of turbulence, and the design of the telescopes to achieve a high signal-to-noise ratio for the high precision measurements. The mission concept was conceived at the Alpbach Summer School 2010

Evaluation of Pharmacy Teams in GP Practice

In Scotland, and globally, public health systems are coming under increasing pressures due to several complex and inter-related factors, including the lack of capacity within the primary care workforce and an expanding population of older people. Older people often have multiple conditions and the associated increase in medicines use and healthcare appointments has led to an overwhelming medicines and healthcare service burden; adversely impacting patients’ quality of life and access to primary care services. A key element of the Scottish response is the better integration and transformation of our health and social care services, and a shift in the balance of care from hospital to the community setting.1 This direction of travel has brought focus to primary care, the challenges and pressures facing frontline practitioners and the need to transform services through building broader multidisciplinary teams (MDTs). The clinical leadership community has shaped and endorsed the 2020 Vision for our public services with clear policy direction and supporting policy documents: Achieving Excellence in Pharmaceutical Care – a Strategy for Scotland (2017) commits to “Integrating pharmacists with advanced clinical skills and pharmacy technicians in GP Practices to improve pharmaceutical care and contribute to the multidisciplinary team2, and, Practicing Realistic Medicine (2018), states that “by 2025, everyone who provides healthcare in Scotland will demonstrate their professionalism through the approaches, behaviours and attitudes of Realistic Medicine”

Exploring the role of pharmacy teams in Scottish GP practice: an interim analysis.

Background: Scottish Government policy has highlighted the potential contribution of pharmacy teams, comprising pharmacists and pharmacy technicians, in GP practices in Scotland. Purpose: To explore the role of pharmacy teams in GP practices in Scotland. Methods: An online questionnaire was developed, piloted and the link sent out by email from a nominated contact in each of the 14 Scottish Health Boards to all pharmacists and pharmacy technicians working in GP Practices with two reminders at fortnightly intervals. Ethical approval had been gained. Results: Response rates for pharmacists were 83.4% (393/471) and pharmacy technicians, 89.4% (101/113). The majority of pharmacists and pharmacy technicians were aged between 30 and 49 years (n=248, 63.1%; n=68, 67.3% respectively) and had been qualified for 20 or more years (n=164, 41.7%, n=35, 34.7% respectively). Pharmacists reported working in up to 29 GP Practices (Median=2) and pharmacy technicians across 1 to 54 (Median=5). Pharmacists were undertaking medication/polypharmacy reviews face-to-face (n=231, 58.8%), notes only (n=159, 40.5%) and via telephone/video (n=104, 26.5%). Over 70% were currently undertaking prescribing efficiency work (n=297, 75.6%) and interpreting prescribing data (n=283, 72.0%). Pharmacy technicians were undertaking medication/polypharmacy reviews face-to-face (n=7, 6.9%), notes only (n=36, 35.6%) and via telephone/video (n=2, 2.0%). In addition, over 70% were currently undertaking prescribing efficiency work (n=80, 79.2%) and prescribing management processes (n=80, 79.2%). Conclusions: The findings illustrate the depth of the pharmacy workforce and diversity of roles of those employed in GP practices

Laser speckle effects on hard target differential absorption lidar

Reflection of laser light from a diffuse surface exhibits a complex interference pattern known as laser speckle. Measurement of the reflected intensity from remote targets, common to ``hard-target`` differential absorption lidar (DIAL) requires consideration of the statistical properties of the reflected light. The authors have explored the effects of laser speckle on the noise statistics for CO{sub 2} DIAL. For an ensemble of independent speckle patterns it is predicted that the variance for the measured intensity is inversely proportional to the number of speckle measured. They have used a rotating drum target to obtain a large number of independent speckle and have measured the predicted decrease in the variance after correlations due to system drifts were accounted for. Measurements have been made using both circular and linear polarized light. These measurements show a slight improvement in return signal statistics when circular polarization is used. The authors have conducted experiments at close range to isolate speckle phenomena from other phenomena, such as atmospheric turbulence and platform motion thus allowing them to gain a full understanding of speckle. They have also studied how to remove correlation in the data due to albedo inhomogeneities producing a more statistically independent ensemble of speckle patterns. They find that some types of correlation are difficult to remove from the data

Simulating the Afghanistan- Pakistan Opium Supply Chain

ABSTRACT This paper outlines an opium supply chain using the Hilmand province of Afghanistan as exemplar. The opium supply chain model follows the transformation of opium poppy seed through cultivation and chemical alteration to brown heroin base. The purpose of modeling and simulating the Afghanistan-Pakistan opium supply chain is to discover and test strategies that will disrupt this criminal enterprise