Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries : a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59.3 (95% uncertainty interval 56.8-61.8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85.5 (84.2-86.5) in Iceland to 20.4 (15.4-24.9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r(2) = 0.88) and the MDG index (r(2) = 0.2), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r(2) = 0.79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7.9 (IQR 5.0-10.4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10.0 [6.7-13.1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5.5 [2.1-8.9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. Interpretation GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.Peer reviewe

Malaria case investigation with reactive focal testing and treatment: operational feasibility and lessons learned from low and moderate transmission areas in Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Abstract Background When malaria transmission is very low, investigation of passively detected malaria cases and reactive focal testing and treatment (FTAT) in the case and neighbouring households can identify and contain the source and spread of infections. Methods Case investigation with reactive FTAT for malaria was implemented in 10 villages in Amhara Region, Ethiopia during the 2014/2015 malaria transmission season. Intervention villages were purposively selected based on the incidence of passively detected Plasmodium falciparum and mixed infections (P. falciparum and Plasmodium vivax) during the 2013 transmission season. A passively detected P. falciparum or mixed index case triggered an investigation that targeted the index case household and the closest 10 neighbouring households in a 100-m radius. All consenting household members received a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and RDT-positive individuals received artemether–lumefantrine (P. falciparum, mixed) or chloroquine (P. vivax). Results From October 2014 to February 2015, 407 P. falciparum or mixed index cases (approximately 6.5 per 1000 population) were passively detected. Of these, 220 (54.1%) were investigated, of which 87.3% were male, 61.8% were age 20–39 years [median age: 27 years (range 1–90)], and 58.6% spent ≥ 1 night away from home in the past month (ranging from 0.0 to 94.1% by village). Among the 4077 residents in the 914 households investigated, 3243 (79.5%) received an RDT and 127 (3.9%) were RDT-positive (2.2% P. falciparum, 0.5% P. vivax, 1.2% mixed). Three epidemiological patterns were found. In six villages, there were almost no cases, with less than 10 index and secondary cases. In three villages, most index cases had a history of travel (> 62%), but there were a small number of secondary cases (< 10). Lastly, in one village none of the index cases had a history of recent travel and there was a large number of secondary cases (n = 105). Conclusions Three types of malaria transmission patterns were observed: (1) low importation and low local transmission; (2) high importation and low local transmission; and, (3) low importation and high local transmission. To achieve malaria elimination in Amhara Region, intervention strategies targeting these different patterns of transmission and population movement are required