Predictability of evolutionary trajectories in fitness landscapes

Experimental studies on enzyme evolution show that only a small fraction of all possible mutation trajectories are accessible to evolution. However, these experiments deal with individual enzymes and explore a tiny part of the fitness landscape. We report an exhaustive analysis of fitness landscapes constructed with an off-lattice model of protein folding where fitness is equated with robustness to misfolding. This model mimics the essential features of the interactions between amino acids, is consistent with the key paradigms of protein folding and reproduces the universal distribution of evolutionary rates among orthologous proteins. We introduce mean path divergence as a quantitative measure of the degree to which the starting and ending points determine the path of evolution in fitness landscapes. Global measures of landscape roughness are good predictors of path divergence in all studied landscapes: the mean path divergence is greater in smooth landscapes than in rough ones. The model-derived and experimental landscapes are significantly smoother than random landscapes and resemble additive landscapes perturbed with moderate amounts of noise; thus, these landscapes are substantially robust to mutation. The model landscapes show a deficit of suboptimal peaks even compared with noisy additive landscapes with similar overall roughness. We suggest that smoothness and the substantial deficit of peaks in the fitness landscapes of protein evolution are fundamental consequences of the physics of protein folding.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure

Memory in Microbes: Quantifying History-Dependent Behavior in a Bacterium

Memory is usually associated with higher organisms rather than bacteria. However, evidence is mounting that many regulatory networks within bacteria are capable of complex dynamics and multi-stable behaviors that have been linked to memory in other systems. Moreover, it is recognized that bacteria that have experienced different environmental histories may respond differently to current conditions. These “memory” effects may be more than incidental to the regulatory mechanisms controlling acclimation or to the status of the metabolic stores. Rather, they may be regulated by the cell and confer fitness to the organism in the evolutionary game it participates in. Here, we propose that history-dependent behavior is a potentially important manifestation of memory, worth classifying and quantifying. To this end, we develop an information-theory based conceptual framework for measuring both the persistence of memory in microbes and the amount of information about the past encoded in history-dependent dynamics. This method produces a phenomenological measure of cellular memory without regard to the specific cellular mechanisms encoding it. We then apply this framework to a strain of Bacillus subtilis engineered to report on commitment to sporulation and degradative enzyme (AprE) synthesis and estimate the capacity of these systems and growth dynamics to ‘remember’ 10 distinct cell histories prior to application of a common stressor. The analysis suggests that B. subtilis remembers, both in short and long term, aspects of its cell history, and that this memory is distributed differently among the observables. While this study does not examine the mechanistic bases for memory, it presents a framework for quantifying memory in cellular behaviors and is thus a starting point for studying new questions about cellular regulation and evolutionary strategy

Fall risk in an active elderly population – can it be assessed?

BACKGROUND: Falls amongst elderly people are often associated with fractures. Training of balance and physical performance can reduce fall risk; however, it remains a challenge to identify individuals at increased risk of falling to whom this training should be offered. It is believed that fall risk can be assessed by testing balance performance. In this study a test battery of physiological parameters related to balance and falls was designed to address fall risk in a community dwelling elderly population. RESULTS: Ninety-four elderly males and females between 70 and 80 years of age were included in a one year follow-up study. A fall incidence of 15% was reported. The test battery scores were not different between the fallers and non-fallers. Test scores were, however, related to self-reported health. In spite of inclusion of dynamic tests, the test battery had low fall prediction rates, with a sensitivity and specificity of 50% and 43% respectively. CONCLUSION: Individuals with poor balance were identified but falls were not predicted by this test battery. Physiological balance characteristics can apparently not be used in isolation as adequate indicators of fall risk in this population of community dwelling elderly. Falling is a complex phenomenon of multifactorial origin. The crucial factor in relation to fall risk is the redundancy of balance capacity against the balance demands of the individuals levels of fall-risky lifestyle and behavior. This calls for an approach to fall risk assessment in which the physiological performance is evaluated in relation to the activity profile of the individual

The Chlamydia psittaci Genome: A Comparative Analysis of Intracellular Pathogens

Chlamydiaceae are a family of obligate intracellular pathogens causing a wide range of diseases in animals and humans, and facing unique evolutionary constraints not encountered by free-living prokaryotes. To investigate genomic aspects of infection, virulence and host preference we have sequenced Chlamydia psittaci, the pathogenic agent of ornithosis.A comparison of the genome of the avian Chlamydia psittaci isolate 6BC with the genomes of other chlamydial species, C. trachomatis, C. muridarum, C. pneumoniae, C. abortus, C. felis and C. caviae, revealed a high level of sequence conservation and synteny across taxa, with the major exception of the human pathogen C. trachomatis. Important differences manifest in the polymorphic membrane protein family specific for the Chlamydiae and in the highly variable chlamydial plasticity zone. We identified a number of psittaci-specific polymorphic membrane proteins of the G family that may be related to differences in host-range and/or virulence as compared to closely related Chlamydiaceae. We calculated non-synonymous to synonymous substitution rate ratios for pairs of orthologous genes to identify putative targets of adaptive evolution and predicted type III secreted effector proteins.This study is the first detailed analysis of the Chlamydia psittaci genome sequence. It provides insights in the genome architecture of C. psittaci and proposes a number of novel candidate genes mostly of yet unknown function that may be important for pathogen-host interactions

KATRIN: status and prospects for the neutrino mass and beyond

The Karlsruhe Tritium Neutrino (KATRIN) experiment is designed to measure a high-precision integral spectrum of the endpoint region of T$_{2}$ β decay, with the primary goal of probing the absolute mass scale of the neutrino. After a first tritium commissioning campaign in 2018, the experiment has been regularly running since 2019, and in its first two measurement campaigns has already achieved a sub-eV sensitivity. After 1000 days of data-taking, KATRIN\u27s design sensitivity is 0.2 eV at the 90% confidence level. In this white paper we describe the current status of KATRIN; explore prospects for measuring the neutrino mass and other physics observables, including sterile neutrinos and other beyond-Standard-Model hypotheses; and discuss research-and-development projects that may further improve the KATRIN sensitivity

Environmental effects of ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change : UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2017

Peer reviewe

Non-Standard Errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants

A framework for evolutionary systems biology

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many difficult problems in evolutionary genomics are related to mutations that have weak effects on fitness, as the consequences of mutations with large effects are often simple to predict. Current systems biology has accumulated much data on mutations with large effects and can predict the properties of knockout mutants in some systems. However experimental methods are too insensitive to observe small effects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Here I propose a novel framework that brings together evolutionary theory and current systems biology approaches in order to quantify small effects of mutations and their epistatic interactions <it>in silico</it>. Central to this approach is the definition of fitness correlates that can be computed in some current systems biology models employing the rigorous algorithms that are at the core of much work in computational systems biology. The framework exploits synergies between the realism of such models and the need to understand real systems in evolutionary theory. This framework can address many longstanding topics in evolutionary biology by defining various 'levels' of the adaptive landscape. Addressed topics include the distribution of mutational effects on fitness, as well as the nature of advantageous mutations, epistasis and robustness. Combining corresponding parameter estimates with population genetics models raises the possibility of testing evolutionary hypotheses at a new level of realism.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>EvoSysBio is expected to lead to a more detailed understanding of the fundamental principles of life by combining knowledge about well-known biological systems from several disciplines. This will benefit both evolutionary theory and current systems biology. Understanding robustness by analysing distributions of mutational effects and epistasis is pivotal for drug design, cancer research, responsible genetic engineering in synthetic biology and many other practical applications.</p

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

Background: The EMPA KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population. Methods: EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110. Findings: Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5–2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62–0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16–1·59), representing a 50% (42–58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all &gt;0·1). Interpretation: In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease. Funding: Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council