Extensions to the Visual Predictive Check to facilitate model performance evaluation

The Visual Predictive Check (VPC) is a valuable and supportive instrument for evaluating model performance. However in its most commonly applied form, the method largely depends on a subjective comparison of the distribution of the simulated data with the observed data, without explicitly quantifying and relating the information in both. In recent adaptations to the VPC this drawback is taken into consideration by presenting the observed and predicted data as percentiles. In addition, in some of these adaptations the uncertainty in the predictions is represented visually. However, it is not assessed whether the expected random distribution of the observations around the predicted median trend is realised in relation to the number of observations. Moreover the influence of and the information residing in missing data at each time point is not taken into consideration. Therefore, in this investigation the VPC is extended with two methods to support a less subjective and thereby more adequate evaluation of model performance: (i) the Quantified Visual Predictive Check (QVPC) and (ii) the Bootstrap Visual Predictive Check (BVPC). The QVPC presents the distribution of the observations as a percentage, thus regardless the density of the data, above and below the predicted median at each time point, while also visualising the percentage of unavailable data. The BVPC weighs the predicted median against the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles resulting from a bootstrap of the observed data median at each time point, while accounting for the number and the theoretical position of unavailable data. The proposed extensions to the VPC are illustrated by a pharmacokinetic simulation example and applied to a pharmacodynamic disease progression example

MIR376A is a regulator of starvation-induced autophagy

Background: Autophagy is a vesicular trafficking process responsible for the degradation of long-lived, misfolded or abnormal proteins, as well as damaged or surplus organelles. Abnormalities of the autophagic activity may result in the accumulation of protein aggregates, organelle dysfunction, and autophagy disorders were associated with various diseases. Hence, mechanisms of autophagy regulation are under exploration. Methods: Over-expression of hsa-miR-376a1 (shortly MIR376A) was performed to evaluate its effects on autophagy. Autophagy-related targets of the miRNA were predicted using Microcosm Targets and MIRanda bioinformatics tools and experimentally validated. Endogenous miRNA was blocked using antagomirs and the effects on target expression and autophagy were analyzed. Luciferase tests were performed to confirm that 3’ UTR sequences in target genes were functional. Differential expression of MIR376A and the related MIR376B was compared using TaqMan quantitative PCR. Results: Here, we demonstrated that, a microRNA (miRNA) from the DlkI/Gtl2 gene cluster, MIR376A, played an important role in autophagy regulation. We showed that, amino acid and serum starvation-induced autophagy was blocked by MIR376A overexpression in MCF-7 and Huh-7 cells. MIR376A shared the same seed sequence and had overlapping targets with MIR376B, and similarly blocked the expression of key autophagy proteins ATG4C and BECN1 (Beclin 1). Indeed, 3’ UTR sequences in the mRNA of these autophagy proteins were responsive to MIR376A in luciferase assays. Antagomir tests showed that, endogenous MIR376A was participating to the control of ATG4C and BECN1 transcript and protein levels. Moreover, blockage of endogenous MIR376A accelerated starvation-induced autophagic activity. Interestingly, MIR376A and MIR376B levels were increased with different kinetics in response to starvation stress and tissue-specific level differences were also observed, pointing out to an overlapping but miRNA-specific biological role. Conclusions: Our findings underline the importance of miRNAs encoded by the DlkI/Gtl2 gene cluster in stress-response control mechanisms, and introduce MIR376A as a new regulator of autophagy

Flower Bats (Glossophaga soricina) and Fruit Bats (Carollia perspicillata) Rely on Spatial Cues over Shapes and Scents When Relocating Food

Natural selection can shape specific cognitive abilities and the extent to which a given species relies on various cues when learning associations between stimuli and rewards. Because the flower bat Glossophaga soricina feeds primarily on nectar, and the locations of nectar-producing flowers remain constant, G. soricina might be predisposed to learn to associate food with locations. Indeed, G. soricina has been observed to rely far more heavily on spatial cues than on shape cues when relocating food, and to learn poorly when shape alone provides a reliable cue to the presence of food.Here we determined whether G. soricina would learn to use scent cues as indicators of the presence of food when such cues were also available. Nectar-producing plants fed upon by G. soricina often produce distinct, intense odors. We therefore expected G. soricina to relocate food sources using scent cues, particularly the flower-produced compound, dimethyl disulfide, which is attractive even to G. soricina with no previous experience of it. We also compared the learning of associations between cues and food sources by G. soricina with that of a related fruit-eating bat, Carollia perspicillata. We found that (1) G. soricina did not learn to associate scent cues, including dimethyl disulfide, with feeding sites when the previously rewarded spatial cues were also available, and (2) both the fruit-eating C. perspicillata and the flower-feeding G. soricina were significantly more reliant on spatial cues than associated sensory cues for relocating food.These findings, taken together with past results, provide evidence of a powerful, experience-independent predilection of both species to rely on spatial cues when attempting to relocate food

Environmental regulation of carbon isotope composition and crassulacean acid metabolism in three plant communities along a water availability gradient

Expression of crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) is characterized by extreme variability within and between taxa and its sensitivity to environmental variation. In this study, we determined seasonal fluctuations in CAM photosynthesis with measurements of nocturnal tissue acidification and carbon isotopic composition (δ13C) of bulk tissue and extracted sugars in three plant communities along a precipitation gradient (500, 700, and 1,000 mm year−1) on the Yucatan Peninsula. We also related the degree of CAM to light habitat and relative abundance of species in the three sites. For all species, the greatest tissue acid accumulation occurred during the rainy season. In the 500 mm site, tissue acidification was greater for the species growing at 30% of daily total photon flux density (PFD) than species growing at 80% PFD. Whereas in the two wetter sites, the species growing at 80% total PFD had greater tissue acidification. All species had values of bulk tissue δ13C less negative than −20‰, indicating strong CAM activity. The bulk tissue δ13C values in plants from the 500 mm site were 2‰ less negative than in plants from the wetter sites, and the only species growing in the three communities, Acanthocereus tetragonus (Cactaceae), showed a significant negative relationship between both bulk tissue and sugar δ13C values and annual rainfall, consistent with greater CO2 assimilation through the CAM pathway with decreasing water availability. Overall, variation in the use of CAM photosynthesis was related to water and light availability and CAM appeared to be more ecologically important in the tropical dry forests than in the coastal dune

Extracellular Hsp72 concentration relates to a minimum endogenous criteria during acute exercise-heat exposure

Extracellular heat-shock protein 72 (eHsp72) concentration increases during exercise-heat stress when conditions elicit physiological strain. Differences in severity of environmental and exercise stimuli have elicited varied response to stress. The present study aimed to quantify the extent of increased eHsp72 with increased exogenous heat stress, and determine related endogenous markers of strain in an exercise-heat model. Ten males cycled for 90 min at 50% O2peak in three conditions (TEMP, 20°C/63% RH; HOT, 30.2°C/51%RH; VHOT, 40.0°C/37%RH). Plasma was analysed for eHsp72 pre, immediately post and 24-h post each trial utilising a commercially available ELISA. Increased eHsp72 concentration was observed post VHOT trial (+172.4%) (P<0.05), but not TEMP (-1.9%) or HOT (+25.7%) conditions. eHsp72 returned to baseline values within 24hrs in all conditions. Changes were observed in rectal temperature (Trec), rate of Trec increase, area under the curve for Trec of 38.5°C and 39.0°C, duration Trec ≥ 38.5°C and ≥ 39.0°C, and change in muscle temperature, between VHOT, and TEMP and HOT, but not between TEMP and HOT. Each condition also elicited significantly increasing physiological strain, described by sweat rate, heart rate, physiological strain index, rating of perceived exertion and thermal sensation. Stepwise multiple regression reported rate of Trec increase and change in Trec to be predictors of increased eHsp72 concentration. Data suggests eHsp72 concentration increases once systemic temperature and sympathetic activity exceeds a minimum endogenous criteria elicited during VHOT conditions and is likely to be modulated by large, rapid changes in core temperature

Social Networking Technology, Social Network Composition, and Reductions in Substance Use Among Homeless Adolescents

Peer-based prevention programs for homeless youth are complicated by the potential for reinforcing high-risk behaviors among participants. The goal of this study is to understand how homeless youth could be linked to positive peers in prevention programming by understanding where in social and physical space positive peers for homeless youth are located, how these ties are associated with substance use, and the role of social networking technologies (e.g., internet and cell phones) in this process. Personal social network data were collected from 136 homeless adolescents in Los Angeles, CA. Respondents reported on composition of their social networks with respect to: home-based peers and parents (accessed via social networking technology; e.g., the internet, cell phone, texting), homeless peers and agency staff (accessed face-to-face) and whether or not network members were substance-using or non-substance-using. Associations between respondent’s lifetime cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine use and recent (previous 30 days) alcohol and marijuana use were assessed by the number of non-substance-using versus substance-using ties in multivariate linear regression models. 43% of adolescents reported a non-substance-using home-based tie. More of these ties were associated with less recent alcohol use. 62% of adolescents reported a substance-using homeless tie. More of these ties were associated with more recent marijuana use as well as more lifetime heroin and methamphetamine use. For homeless youth, who are physically disconnected from positive peers, social networking technologies can be used to facilitate the sorts of positive social ties that effective peer-based prevention programs require

Synbiotic approach restores intestinal homeostasis and prolongs survival in leukaemia mice with cachexia

Cancer cachexia is a multifactorial syndrome that includes muscle wasting and inflammation. As gut microbes influence host immunity and metabolism, we investigated the role of the gut microbiota in the therapeutic management of cancer and associated cachexia. A community-wide analysis of the caecal microbiome in two mouse models of cancer cachexia (acute leukaemia or subcutaneous transplantation of colon cancer cells) identified common microbial signatures, including decreased Lactobacillus spp. and increased Enterobacteriaceae and Parabacteroides goldsteinii/ASF 519. Building on this information, we administered a synbiotic containing inulin-type fructans and live Lactobacillus reuteri 100-23 to leukaemic mice. This treatment restored the Lactobacillus population and reduced the Enterobacteriaceae levels. It also reduced hepatic cancer cell proliferation, muscle wasting and morbidity, and prolonged survival. Administration of the synbiotic was associated with restoration of the expression of antimicrobial proteins controlling intestinal barrier function and gut immunity markers, but did not impact the portal metabolomics imprinting of energy demand. In summary, this study provided evidence that the development of cancer outside the gut can impact intestinal homeostasis and the gut microbial ecosystem and that a synbiotic intervention, by targeting some alterations of the gut microbiota, confers benefits to the host, prolonging survival and reducing cancer proliferation and cachexia

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Response rates and selection problems, with emphasis on mental health variables and DNA sampling, in large population-based, cross-sectional and longitudinal studies of adolescents in Norway

Background Selection bias is a threat to the internal validity of epidemiological studies. In light of a growing number of studies which aim to provide DNA, as well as a considerable number of invitees who declined to participate, we discuss response rates, predictors of lost to follow-up and failure to provide DNA, and the presence of possible selection bias, based on five samples of adolescents. Methods We included nearly 7,000 adolescents from two longitudinal studies of 18/19 year olds with two corresponding cross-sectional baseline studies at age 15/16 (10th graders), and one cross-sectional study of 13th graders (18/19 years old). DNA was sampled from the cheek mucosa of 18/19 year olds. Predictors of lost to follow-up and failure to provide DNA were studied by Poisson regression. Selection bias in the follow-up at age 18/19 was estimated through investigation of prevalence ratios (PRs) between selected exposures (physical activity, smoking) and outcome variables (general health, mental distress, externalizing problems) measured at baseline. Results Out of 5,750 who participated at age 15/16, we lost 42% at follow-up at age 18/19. The percentage of participants who gave their consent to DNA provision was as high as the percentage that consented to a linkage of data with other health registers and surveys, approximately 90%. Significant predictors of lost to follow-up and failure to provide DNA samples in the present genetic epidemiological study were: male gender; non-western ethnicity; postal survey compared with school-based; low educational plans; low education and income of father; low perceived family economy; unmarried parents; poor self-reported health; externalized symptoms and smoking, with some differences in subgroups of ethnicity and gender. The association measures (PRs) were quite similar among participants and all invitees, with some minor discrepancies in subgroups of non-western boys and girls. Conclusions Lost to follow-up had marginal impact on the estimated prevalence ratios. It is not likely that the invitation to provide DNA influenced the response rates of 18/19 year olds. Non-western ethnicity, male gender and characteristics related to a low social class and general and mental health problems measured at baseline are associated with lost to follow-up and failure to provide DNA