Equine grass sickness in Scotland:A case-control study of environmental geochemical risk factors

suboptimal levels of soil macro- and trace elements in fields where EGS occurs. If proven, altering levels of particular elements could be used to reduce the risk of EGS. Objectives: To determine whether the geographical distribution of EGS cases in eastern Scotland is associated with the presence or absence of particular environmental chemical elements. Study design: Retrospective time-matched case-control study. Methods: This study used data for 455 geo-referenced EGS cases and 910 time-matched controls in eastern Scotland, and geo-referenced environmental geochemical data from the British Geological Survey Geochemical Baseline Survey of the Environment stream sediment (G-BASE) and the James Hutton Institute, National Soil Inventory of Scotland (NSIS) datasets. Results: Multivariable statistical analyses identified clusters of three main elements associated with cases from (i) the G-BASE dataset - higher environmental Ti and lower Zn, and (ii) the NSIS dataset - higher environmental Ti and lower Cr. There was also some evidence from univariable analyses for lower Al, Cd, Cu, Ni and Pb and higher Ca, K, Mo, Na and Se environmental concentrations being associated with a case. Results were complicated by a high degree of correlation between most geochemical elements. Conclusions: The work presented here would appear to reflect soil- not horse-level risk factors for EGS, but due to the complexity of the correlations between elements, further work is required to determine whether these associations reflect causality, and consequently whether interventions to alter concentrations of particular elements in soil, or in grazing horses, could potentially reduce the risk of EGS. The effect of chemical elements on the growth of those soil microorganisms implicated in EGS aetiology also warrants further study

Significant Surface-Water Connectivity of Geographically Isolated Wetlands

We evaluated the current literature, coupled with our collective research expertise, on surface-water connectivity of wetlands considered to be geographically isolated (sensu Tiner Wetlands 23:494–516, 2003a) to critically assess the scientific foundation of grouping wetlands based on the singular condition of being surrounded by uplands. The most recent research on wetlands considered to be geographically isolated shows the difficulties in grouping an ecological resource that does not reliably indicate lack of surface water connectivity in order to meet legal, regulatory, or scientific needs. Additionally, the practice of identifying geographically isolated wetlands based on distance from a stream can result in gross overestimates of the number of wetlands lacking ecologically important surface-water connections. Our findings do not support use of the overly simplistic label of geographically isolated wetlands . Wetlands surrounded by uplands vary in function and surface water connections based on wetland landscape setting, context, climate, and geographic region and should be evaluated as such. We found that the geographically isolated grouping does not reflect our understanding of the hydrologic variability of these wetlands and hence does not benefit conservation of the Nation’s diverse wetland resources. Therefore, we strongly discourage use of categorizations that provide overly simplistic views of surface water connectivity of wetlands fully embedded in upland landscapes

Combining Computational Fluid Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling: A New Approach to Evacuation Planning

We introduce a novel hybrid of two fields—Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)—as a powerful new technique for urban evacuation planning. CFD is a predominant technique for modeling airborne transport of contaminants, while ABM is a powerful approach for modeling social dynamics in populations of adaptive individuals. The hybrid CFD-ABM method is capable of simulating how large, spatially-distributed populations might respond to a physically realistic contaminant plume. We demonstrate the overall feasibility of CFD-ABM evacuation design, using the case of a hypothetical aerosol release in Los Angeles to explore potential effectiveness of various policy regimes. We conclude by arguing that this new approach can be powerfully applied to arbitrary population centers, offering an unprecedented preparedness and catastrophic event response tool

Changing the spatial location of electricity generation to increase water availability in areas with drought: a feasibility study and quantification of air quality impacts in Texas

The feasibility, cost, and air quality impacts of using electrical grids to shift water use from drought-stricken regions to areas with more water availability were examined. Power plant cooling represents a large portion of freshwater withdrawals in the United States, and shifting where electricity generation occurs can allow the grid to act as a virtual water pipeline, increasing water availability in regions with drought by reducing water consumption and withdrawals for power generation. During a 2006 drought, shifting electricity generation out of the most impacted areas of South Texas (~10% of base case generation) to other parts of the grid would have been feasible using transmission and power generation available at the time, and some areas would experience changes in air quality. Although expensive, drought-based electricity dispatch is a potential parallel strategy that can be faster to implement than other infrastructure changes, such as air cooling or water pipelines.National Science Foundation (U.S.). Office of Emerging Frontiers in Research and Innovation (Grant 0835414)United States. Dept. of Energ

Using survival regression to study patterns of expansion of invasive species: will the common waxbill expand with global warming ?

Different approaches can be used to model the spread of invasive species. Here we demonstrate the use of survival regression, an approach that can be used to study a variety of events, not just death, to model the time to colonization. The advantage of survival regression to study colonisation of new areas is that information on those areas that have not been invaded by the end of a study can be included in the analysis, thus potentially increasing the accuracy of parameter estimation. We use proportional hazards regression (PHR; a type of survival regression) to model the spread of the common waxbill Estrilda astrild in Portugal. The species invaded Portugal in two peaks of invasion between 1964 and 1999. We built a PHR model with the information available up to the first invasion peak, then used this model to predict the pattern of invasion in the second peak. PHR had useful forecasting capabilities: areas that were actually colonised by 1999 had significantly higher hazards of colonization based on information from the first wave of invasion than areas that were not colonised. We then built a final model of expansion of the common waxbill that combined all available data up to 1999. Among climate variables, the most important predictor of colonization was temperature, followed by relative humidity. We used this model to estimate the invasion potential of the species under climate change scenarios, observing that an increase of 18C in mean annual temperature increased the risk of a new invasion by 47%. Our analyses suggest that survival regression may be a useful tool for studying the geographical spread of invasive species. However, PHR was conceived as a descriptive technique rather than as a predictive tool, and thus further research is needed to empirically test the predictive capabilities of PHR

Refined forest land use classification with implications for United States national carbon accounting

The United States provides annual estimates of carbon sources and sinks as part of its National Green-house Gas Inventory (NGHGI). Within this effort, carbon stocks and fluxes are reported for six land use categories that are relevant to economic sectors and land use policy. The goal of this study is to develop methodologies that will allow the US to align with an internationally agreed upon forest land use definition which requires forest to be able to reach 5 m in height at maturity. Models to assess height potential are available for a majority of US forests except for woodland ecosystems. We develop a set of models to assess height potential in these systems. Our results suggest that ∼13.5 million ha of forests are unlikely to meet the international definition of forests due to environmental limitations to maximum attainable height. The incorporation of this height criteria in the NGHGI results in a carbon stock transfer of ∼848 Tg from the forest land use to woodland land use (a sub-category of grasslands) with minimal effect on sequestration rates. The development of a forest land use definition sensitive to climatic factors in this study enables a land use classification system that can be responsive to climate change effects on land uses themselves while being more consistent across a host of international and domestic carbon reporting efforts

Manganese and cobalt redox cycling in laterites; Biogeochemical and bioprocessing implications

This research was developed during the PhD studies of Agustín Solano Arguedas in the University of Manchester, United Kingdom. PhD scholarship was funded by the Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología y Telecomunicaciones (MICITT) of the Government of Costa Rica and the Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR). Agustín Solano Arguedas is a researcher at the Unidad de Recursos Forestales (Reforesta, Unit of Forest Resources) of the Instituto de Investigaciones en Ingeniería (INII, Engineering Research Institute), UCR.Cobalt is essential for the modern technology that underpins the decarbonisation of our economies, but its supply is limited leading to its designation as a critical metal. Cobalt biogeochemistry is poorly understood, yet knowledge of how biogeochemical cycling impacts cobalt behaviour could assist the development of new techniques to recover cobalt from ores, and so improve the security of supply. Laterites are an important source of cobalt, they are primarily processed for nickel using energy or chemical intensive processes, with cobalt recovered as a by-product. Metal-reducing conditions were stimulated in laterite sediment microcosms by the addition of simple and cheaply available organic substrates (acetate or glucose). At the end of the experiment the amount of easily recoverable cobalt (aqueous or extractable with acetic acid) increased from < 1% to up to 64%, which closely mirrored the behaviour of manganese, while only a small proportion of iron was transformed into an easily recoverable phase. Sequencing of the microbial community showed that the addition of organic substrates stimulated the growth of indigenous prokaryotes closely related to known manganese(IV)/iron(III)-reducers, particularly from the Clostridiales, and that fungi assigned to Penicillium, known to produce organic acids beneficial for leaching cobalt and nickel from laterites, were identified. Overall, the results indicate that the environmental behaviour of cobalt in laterites is likely to be controlled by manganese biogeochemical cycling by microorganisms. These results are compelling given that similar behaviour was observed in four laterites (Acoje, Çaldağ, Piauí and Shevchenko) from different continents. A new bioprocessing strategy is proposed whereby laterites are treated with an organic substrate to generate metal-reducing conditions, then rinsed with acetic acid to remove the cobalt. Not only are organic substrates environmentally-friendly and potentially sourced from waste carbon substrates, a minimal amount of iron oxides was mobilised and consequently less waste generated.Natural Environment Research Council/[CoG3 NE/M011518/1]/NERC/Reino UnidoDiamond Light Source/[SP16735]//Reino UnidoDiamond Light Source/[SP17313]//Reino UnidoOffice of Science User Facility/[DE-AC02-05CH11231]//Estados UnidosUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ingeniería::Instituto Investigaciones en Ingeniería (INII