Lake expansion elevates equilibrium diversity via increasing colonization

Aim Rates of colonization, speciation and extinction determine species richness and endemism in insular systems. The general dynamic model of island biogeography (GDM) predicts that speciation and extinction rates depend on island area and elevation via their control on ecological limits to diversification and therefore covary with an island's geological history. Additionally, the colonization rate may increase with area and elevation through the 'target effect', which can be mediated by reduced 'environmental filtering'. Here we test whether the area and depth expansion of an island-like ecosystem, a lake, caused a shift in diversity dynamics. Location Lake Biwa, Japan, whose geological history and biota are well documented. Taxon Fishes. Methods We extended the phylogenetic island biogeography framework DAISIE (Dynamic Assembly of Island biota through Speciation, Immigration and Extinction) to accommodate time-shifts in macroevolutionary rates and in carrying capacity. Using phylogenetic information on colonization and speciation times for the complete Lake Biwa fish community (70 taxa), we tested for a shift in macroevolutionary assembly rates and reconstructed the temporal diversity trajectory in the lake. We assessed the power to identify a shift through a wide range of scenarios and benchmarked against simulated fossil records. Results We detected an increase in colonization rate of fishes at 0.2 million years ago (Ma), with limited support for the existence of ecological limits. The reconstructed diversity trajectory was close to a source-sink equilibrium diversity prior to the shift and remained well below a new shift-driven elevated equilibrium thereafter. We found sufficient power to identify an increase in colonization rate up to 1.5 Ma, whereas extinction concealed the signal of earlier shifts. Main conclusions The fish diversity dynamics of Lake Biwa show a response to changes in area and depth and phylogenies carry a signature of these changes. The detected increase in colonization rate following Lake Biwa's expansion, elevating the fish diversity, is unlikely due to a predicted increase in ecological limits feeding back on colonization rate. We therefore call for (additional) explanations: the target effect, whereby larger islands attract more species, and reduced environmental filtering due to higher habitat diversity associated with increased lake area/depth

Constant diversification rates of endemic gastropods in ancient Lake Ohrid: ecosystem resilience likely buffers environmental fluctuations

Ancient lakes represent key ecosystems for endemic freshwater species. This high endemic biodiversity has been shown to be mainly the result of intra-lacustrine diversification. Whereas the principle role of this mode of diversification is generally acknowledged, actual diversification rates in ancient lakes remain little understood. At least four types are conceivable. Diversification rates may be constant over time, they may fluctuate, rates may be higher in the initial phase of diversification, or there may be a pronounced lag phase between colonization and subsequent diversification. As understanding the tempo of diversification in ancient lake environments may help reveal the underlying processes that drive speciation and extinction, we here use the Balkan Lake Ohrid as a model system and the largest species flock in the lake, the non-pyrgulinid Hydrobiidae, as a model taxon to study changes in diversification rates over time together with the respective drivers. Based on phylogenetic, molecular-clock, lineage-through-time plot, and diversification-rate analyses we found that this potentially monophyletic group is comparatively old and that it most likely evolved with a constant diversification rate. Preliminary data of the SCOPSCO (Scientific Collaboration On Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid) deep-drilling program do indicate signatures of severe environmental/climatic perturbations in Lake Ohrid. However, so far there is no evidence for the occurrence of catastrophic environmental events. We therefore propose that the constant diversification rate observed in endemic gastropods has been caused by two factors: (i) a potential lack of catastrophic environmental events in Lake Ohrid and/or (ii) a probably high ecosystem resilience, buffering environmental changes. Parameters potentially contributing to the lake´s high ecosystem resilience are its distinct bathymetry, ongoing tectonic activities, and karst hydrology. The current study not only contributes to one of the overall goals of the SCOPSCO deep-drilling program – inferring the driving forces for biotic evolution in Lake Ohrid. It might also enhance our understanding of how ecosystem resilience, in general, may promote relatively constant diversification rates in isolated ecosystems. However, we encourage future studies testing hypotheses about the lack of catastrophic events in Lake Ohrid. These studies should be based on high-resolution data for the entire geological history of the lake, and they should potentially involve information from the sediment fossil record, not only for gastropods but also for other groups with a high share of endemic taxa

Spatially explicit modeling of schistosomiasis risk in Eastern China based on a synthesis of epidemiological, environmental and intermediate host genetic data

Schistosomiasis is considered the second most devastating parasitic disease after malaria. In China, it is transmitted to humans, cattle and other vertebrate hosts by a single intermediate snail host. It has long been suggested that the close co-evolutionary relationship between parasite and intermediate host makes the snail a major transmission bottleneck in the disease life cycle. Here, we use a novel approach to model the disease distribution in eastern China based on a combination of epidemiological, ecological, and genetic information. We found four major high risk areas for schistosomiasis occurrence in the large lakes and flood plain regions of the Yangtze River. These regions are interconnected, suggesting that the disease may be maintained in eastern China in part through the annual flooding of the Yangtze River, which drives snail transport and admixture of genotypes. The novel approach undertaken yielded improved prediction of schistosomiasis disease distribution in eastern China. Thus, it may also be of value for the predictive modeling of other host- or vector-borne diseases

Drivers of phytoplankton community structure change with ecosystem ontogeny during the Quaternary

Freshwater species are particularly sensitive to climate fluctuations, but little is known of their response to the large-scale environmental change that took place during the Quaternary. This is partly due to the scarcity of continuously preserved freshwater sedimentary records with orbital chronology. We use a 1.363 Ma high-resolution fossil record of planktonic diatoms from ancient Lake Ohrid to evaluate the role of global and regional versus local-scale environmental change in driving temporal community dynamics. By using a Bayesian joint species distribution model, we found that communities were mostly driven by the local-scale environment. Its effects decreased over time, becoming less important than global and regional environment at the onset of the penultimate glacial, 0.183 Ma. Global and regional control over the environment became important with successive deepening of the lake at around 1.0 Ma, and its influence remained persistent until the present. Our high-resolution data demonstrate the critical role of lake depth and its thermal dynamics in determining phytoplankton response to environmental change by influencing lake mixing, nutrient and light availability. With this study we demonstrate the relative impact of various environmental factors and their scale dependant effect on the phytoplankton communities during the Quaternary, emphasizing the importance of not only considering climate fluctuations in driving their structure and temporal dynamics but also the local environment. (c) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

Environmental filtering drives assembly of diatom communities over evolutionary time‐scales

Aim Ecological communities are structured through the interplay of deterministic assembly processes such as competition and environmental filtering. Whereas the drivers of spatial community structure are frequently studied in extant communities, little is known about the relative importance of assembly processes in response to environmental factors over evolutionary time-scales. Here, we use an integrative framework to unravel community assembly processes since the inception of a long-lived lake ecosystem. Location Lake Ohrid. Time period From lake formation 1.36 million years ago to the present. Major taxa studied Planktonic diatoms. Methods We constructed a dated phylogeny of extant and extinct diatoms and collected trait data for 380 fossil communities to quantify phylogenetic community structure and functional richness and to determine the relative importance of deterministic assembly processes over time. We then used regression analysis to correlate the phylogenetic community structure with palaeoenvironmental and intrinsic biological predictors and to identify primary drivers of assembly processes. Results Our results suggest a dense packing of niche space with higher species richness and co-occurrence of closely related species. There are only two short episodes in the very recent past dominated by distantly related taxa. We found distinct changes in phylogenetic community structure upon speciation or extinction events and an increase in mean community relatedness over time. Main conclusions Our finding of closely related co-occurring species implies environmental filtering as the primary assembly mechanism, with a minor but increasingly important role of competition towards the present, driven by evolutionary dynamics. Such an increase in the relative contribution of competition to the assembly of communities in relation to the aging of an insular ecosystem, together with a denser packing of morphospace in the early phase of system ontogeny is compatible with ecological predictions according to the theory of island biogeography

Deep drilling reveals massive shifts in evolutionary dynamics after formation of ancient ecosystem

The scarcity of high-resolution empirical data directly tracking diversity over time limits our understanding of speciation and extinction dynamics and the drivers of rate changes. Here, we analyze a continuous species-level fossil record of endemic diatoms from ancient Lake Ohrid, along with environmental and climate indicator time series since lake formation 1.36 million years (Ma) ago. We show that speciation and extinction rates nearly simultaneously decreased in the environmentally dynamic phase after ecosystem formation and stabilized after deep-water conditions established in Lake Ohrid. As the lake deepens, we also see a switch in the macroevolutionary trade-off, resulting in a transition from a volatile assemblage of short-lived endemic species to a stable community of long-lived species. Our results emphasize the importance of the interplay between environmental/climate change, ecosystem stability, and environmental limits to diversity for diversification processes. The study also provides a new understanding of evolutionary dynamics in long-lived ecosystems

Scientific drilling projects in ancient lakes: integrating geological and biological histories

Sedimentary sequences in ancient or long-lived lakes can reach several thousands of meters in thickness and often provide an unrivalled perspective of the lake's regional climatic, environmental, and biological history. Over the last few years, deep drilling projects in ancient lakes became increasingly multi- and interdisciplinary, as, among others, seismological, sedimentological, biogeochemical, climatic, environmental, paleontological, and evolutionary information can be obtained from sediment cores. However, these multi- and interdisciplinary projects pose several challenges. The scientists involved typically approach problems from different scientific perspectives and backgrounds, and setting up the program requires clear communication and the alignment of interests. One of the most challenging tasks, besides the actual drilling operation, is to link diverse datasets with varying resolution, data quality, and age uncertainties to answer interdisciplinary questions synthetically and coherently. These problems are especially relevant when secondary data, i.e., datasets obtained independently of the drilling operation, are incorporated in analyses. Nonetheless, the inclusion of secondary information, such as isotopic data from fossils found in outcrops or genetic data from extant species, may help to achieve synthetic answers. Recent technological and methodological advances in paleolimnology are likely to increase the possibilities of integrating secondary information, e.g., through molecular dating of molecular phylogenies. Some of the new approaches have started to revolutionize scientific drilling in ancient lakes, but at the same time, they also add a new layer of complexity to the generation and analysis of sediment core data. The enhanced opportunities presented by new scientific approaches to study the paleolimnological history of these lakes, therefore, come at the expense of higher logistic, communication, and analytical efforts. Here we review types of data that can be obtained in ancient lake drilling projects and the analytical approaches that can be applied to empirically and statistically link diverse datasets for creating an integrative perspective on geological and biological data. In doing so, we highlight strengths and potential weaknesses of new methods and analyses, and provide recommendations for future interdisciplinary deep drilling projects

Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years

Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately1 and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial–interglacial cycles2,3 with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance

Ecological opportunity may facilitate diversification in Palearctic freshwater organisms: a case study on hydrobiid gastropods

Abstract Background Differences in species richness among phylogenetic clades are attributed to clade age and/or variation in diversification rates. Access to ecological opportunity may trigger a temporary increase in diversification rates and ecomorphological variation. In addition, lower body temperatures in poikilothermic animals may result in decreasing speciation rates as proposed by the metabolic theory of ecology. For strictly freshwater organisms, environmental gradients within a river continuum, linked to elevation and temperature, might promote access to ecological opportunity and alter metabolic rates, eventually influencing speciation and extinction processes. To test these hypotheses, we investigated the influence of environmental temperature and elevation, as proxies for body temperature and ecological opportunity, respectively, on speciation rates and ecomorphological divergence. As model systems served two closely related gastropod genera with unequal species richness and habitat preferences – Pseudamnicola and Corrosella. Results Lineage-through-time plots and Bayesian macroevolutionary modeling evidenced that Pseudamnicola species, which typically live in lower reaches of rivers, displayed significantly elevated speciation rates in comparison to the ‘headwater genus’ Corrosella. Moreover, state-dependent speciation models suggested that the speciation rate increased with decreasing elevation, supporting the ecological opportunity hypothesis. In contrast, a significant effect of environmental temperature, as proposed by the metabolic theory of ecology, could not be observed. Disparity-through-time plots, models of ecomorphological evolution, and ancestral habitat estimation showed for Pseudamnicola species rapid morphological divergence shortly after periods of elevational and habitat divergence. In contrast, Corrosella species did not deviate from null models of drift-like evolution. Conclusion Our finding that speciation rates are correlated with elevation and ecomorphological disparity but not with environmental temperatures suggests that differences in ecological opportunity may have played a key role in Corrosella and Pseudamnicola diversifications. We propose that Pseudamnicola lineages experienced higher ecological opportunity through dispersal to new locations or habitats in lowlands, which may explain the increase in speciation rates and morphological change. In contrast, the evolution of Corrosella in headwaters is likely less facilitated by the environment and more by non-ecological processes