Socioeconomic Development: Search For Optimal Models For Forecasting Inflationary Processes

The article is devoted to the analysis of the forecasting models for inflationary processes. The monetarist approach to inflation has been discussed in the article, and the inflation forecasting tools have been classified. Various inflation forecasting models have been studied, namely, one-factor models, Phillips-curve-motivated forecasts, vector autoregressive models, and dynamic models of general equilibrium. Comparative characteristics of the quality of the inflation forecasting models have been provided

Concrete heat liberation in thermal stressed state analysis

This paper presents the results of numerical studies of the temperature regime and the thermal stressed state of the reinforced concrete wall of the nuclear power plant foundation block during the construction period with continuous concreting at full height. Calculations were done both using the dependence of the change in heat liberation over time on the hardening temperature, according to the theory of I.D. Zaporozhets, as well as the experimental data. It is established that if Zaporozhets equation is used in calculations, the correction of heat release values should be performed in the first 45 hours of concrete hardening. In order to correct the theoretical values of the specific heat, the last one should be multiplied by the correction factor. The dependence of the factor on the time within the range of 4 to 45 hours is approximated with sufficient accuracy by the obtained fifth degree polynomial. The crack resistance of the structure was determined using a deformation criterion, taking into account the change in the ultimate elongation of concrete over time. In this particular case of concreting a structure it is shown that when the correction function is introduced into the calculation program there is no need to use thermal insulation. The direct economic effect, as well as the indirect one associated with the decrease in the construction period, allow avoiding the rise of the construction costs. It is proposed to use the developed methodology in practical calculations of thermal crack resistance of massive concrete and reinforced concrete structures during the construction period

Method for investigating computer incidents based on attribute clustering

A reduction of the amount of stored and processed information is an important task for internal audit. It is required to select groups of informational objects with similar parameters and to analyze them separately. Optimal clustering of the data is a suitable method to solve this problem. This paper presents a method of files grouping on the hard disk, based on the Lance Williams algorithm of hierarchical clustering. Files with the same computer incident will belong to the same cluster. This statement is based on the assumption that the user has performed series of actions interrelated in time or in another external attribute or a group of attributes (for example, scanning a row of images in succession, compiling and then sending an email) on the device under investigation. As a result of clustering, these data are grouped together into one cluster and further on they can be presented to a computer forensic scientist as a potential computer incident. Thus, there is no need to analyze the files itself, since the external file attributes such as creation time, access time, time of change, etc. are used as the meaningful parameters. This method also helps to specify the number of clusters manually for a rather flexible investigation of the tested file system. Experiment was carried on in order to test the presented method. The results of the experiment show that the files created and scanned within the same time interval ended up in the same cluster for both large and small number of the output data in the cluster

The formation of highly dispersed zinc oxide powder during combustion of zinc nitrate with glycine mixture and its application for photocatalytic phenol decomposition

The paper presents the results of a detailed study of the process and products of combustion during self-propagating high-temperature synthesis (SHS) of ZnO zinc oxide powder from mixtures of such common reagents as oxidizer zinc nitrate and reducing agent (fuel) glycine, as well as the application of synthesized highly dispersed submicron and nanosized ZnO powder for the phenol photocatalytic decomposition under the action of ultraviolet irradiation. An aqueous solution of a mixture of reagents (the SHS-S process or Solution Combustion Synthesis – SCS) and the gel from a mixture of initial dry reagents formed when they were moistened due to hygroscopicity (the SHS-G process or Gel Combustion Synthesis – GCS) were combusted. The authors studied the phase and chemical compositions, the structure of the combustion product, and the effect of calcination in an oxidizing air medium and grinding in drum ball and planetary-centrifugal mills, as well as in mortar, on them and their photocatalythic activity. The study showed that calcination considerably increases the photocatalytic activity of combustion products due to a significant decrease in carbon impurity in the unburned fuel remains, and grinding in mills reduces the photocatalytic activity due to iron contamination and coarsening of ZnO particle agglomerates. The difference between the photocatalytic activity of the SHS-G and SHS-S products in the phenol decomposition is evident only at the initial stage of ultraviolet irradiation, after which this difference disappears. The authors discuss the direction of further research to increase significantly the photocatalytic activity of zinc oxide synthesized during combustion to use it effectively for the phenol decomposition under the action of visible light

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Search for stop and higgsino production using diphoton Higgs boson decays

Results are presented of a search for a "natural" supersymmetry scenario with gauge mediated symmetry breaking. It is assumed that only the supersymmetric partners of the top-quark (stop) and the Higgs boson (higgsino) are accessible. Events are examined in which there are two photons forming a Higgs boson candidate, and at least two b-quark jets. In 19.7 inverse femtobarns of proton-proton collision data at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV, recorded in the CMS experiment, no evidence of a signal is found and lower limits at the 95% confidence level are set, excluding the stop mass below 360 to 410 GeV, depending on the higgsino mass

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe