Do China and Hong Kong constitute an optimum currency area?

After the political unification of Hong Kong with China, Hong Kong is supposed to function as a separate economic entity under the framework of one country, two systems . However, the increasingly close ties between the two economices have raised the possibility of full economic integration, and even of monetary union as the Chinese currency progresses towards full convertibility. This paper employs the theory of optimum currency area (OCA) and adopts recently developed techniques to test whether China and Hong Kong constitute an OCA. The empirical findings based on disaggregated historical data are overwhelmingly negative. Other considerations also point to a sceptical answer even for the post-1997 era

The economic link-up of Hong Kong and Guangdong : structural and development problems

The phenomenal link-up between the Hong Kong and Guangdong economies has been proceeding at a remarkable speed since the launching of the Chinese economic reform in late 1978. The process has largely been market-driven and seems to suit the short-run comparative advantage on both sides. In essence, however, it has been a result of a reallocation of resources across the border, made possible by China\u27s open policy. It has not yet led to a benign form of developmental upgrading which embodies the strengthening of the long-term foundation for productivity and competitiveness enhancement. Indeed, the tremendous windfall profits obtained so far could be regarded as a disincentive for R & D investments as well as beneficial decisions that may incur painful side effects in the short run. Problems which are structural and developmental in nature, including bias and duplication in production patterns, inflationary pressure, widening income inequality, and the loss of competitiveness, have emerged in both Hong Kong and Guangdong. These problems could be traced to the lack of countervailing forces that promote far-sighted strategies, vis-a-vis short-termism driven by market supplies and demands and yearly profit maximization. In this paper, we argue that while better coordination should be pursued to ensure mutually beneficial developments and to avoid duplication in efforts and undesirable convergence in industrial structures, the future trajectories of the two economies will not and cannot be identical. Hong Kong and Guangdong are different in size and endowments, and face dissimilar political and economic frameworks. Independent policies and measures to nurture specific advantages and to solve internal problems have to be made. Indeed, a certain distancing in economic relations between the two economies will be healthy

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

From "One Country, Two Systems" to Monetary Integration?

The Hong Kong dollar has been pegged to the U.S. dollar since 1983. Recently, the rapid economic integration between Mainland China and Hong Kong has raised concern about the continuing optimality of the peg. Officially, the Hong Kong Special Adminstrative Region (HKSAR) is under the framework of "one country, two systems" and "one country, two currencies". Hence monetary integration was never in the pipeline. However, is the existence of separate currencies consistent with the fast changing economic reality? Would a re-peg with the Renminbi, the Chinese currency, or even a monetary union with the Mainland, be possible options, particularly if the Renminbi becomes fully convertible some time in the future? If so, what are the preconditions for the options? What needs to be done to prepare for them? This paper addresses these interesting questions by going through the complicated issues of trade, real versus nominal convergence, risk sharing as well as labour mobility. It emerges that the status quo is optimal in the foreseeable future.