Comparison of uncertainty quantification methods for cloud simulation

Quantification of evolving uncertainties is required for both probabilistic forecasting and data assimilation in weather prediction. In current practice, the ensemble of model simulations is often used as a primary tool to describe the required uncertainties. In this work, we explore an alternative approach, the so-called stochastic Galerkin (SG) method, which integrates uncertainties forward in time using a spectral approximation in stochastic space. In an idealized two-dimensional model that couples nonhydrostatic weakly compressible Navier–Stokes equations to cloud variables, we first investigate the propagation of initial uncertainty. Propagation of initial perturbations is followed through time for all model variables during two types of forecast: the ensemble forecast and the SG forecast. Series of experiments indicate that differences in performance of the two methods depend on the system state and truncations used. For example, in more stable conditions, the SG method outperforms the ensemble of simulations for every truncation and every variable. However, in unstable conditions, the ensemble of simulations would need more than 100 members (depending on the model variable) and the SG method more than a truncation at five to produce comparable but not identical results. As estimates of the uncertainty are crucial for data assimilation, secondly we instigate the use of these two methods with the stochastic ensemble Kalman filter. The use of the SG method avoids evolution of a large ensemble, which is usually the most expensive component of the data assimilation system, and provides results comparable with the ensemble Kalman filter in the cases investigated

Abrupt reversal in emissions and atmospheric abundance of HCFC-133a (CF3CH2Cl)

Hydrochlorofluorocarbon HCFC-133a (CF3CH2Cl) is an anthropogenic compound whose consumption for emissive use is restricted under the Montreal Protocol. A recent study showed rapidly increasing atmospheric abundances and emissions. We report that, following this rise, the at- mospheric abundance and emissions have declined sharply in the past three years. We find a Northern Hemisphere HCFC-133a increase from 0.13 ppt (dry air mole fraction in parts-per-trillion) in 2000 to 0.50 ppt in 2012–mid-2013 followed by an abrupt reversal to 0.44 ppt by early 2015. Global emissions derived from these observations peaked at 3.1 kt in 2011, followed by a rapid decline of 0.5 kt yr−2 to 1.5 kt yr−1 in 2014. Sporadic HCFC-133a pollution events are detected in Europe from our high-resolution HCFC-133a records at three European stations, and in Asia from sam- ples collected in Taiwan. European emissions are estimated to be <0.1 kt yr−1 although emission hotspots were identi- fied in France

Physiological and Biomechanical Responses of Highly Trained Distance Runners to Lower-Body Positive Pressure Treadmill Running

Background: As a way to train at faster running speeds, add training volume, prevent injury, or rehabilitate after an injury, lower-body positive pressure treadmills (LBPPT) have become increasingly commonplace among athletes. However, there are conflicting evidence and a paucity of data describing the physiological and biomechanical responses to LBPPT running in highly trained or elite caliber runners at the running speeds they habitually train at, which are considerably faster than those of recreational runners. Furthermore, data is lacking regarding female runners’ responses to LBPPT running. Therefore, this study was designed to evaluate the physiological and biomechanical responses to LBPPT running in highly trained male and female distance runners. Methods: Fifteen highly trained distance runners (seven male; eight female) completed a single running test composed of 4 × 9-min interval series at fixed percentages of body weight ranging from 0 to 30% body weight support (BWS) in 10% increments on LBPPT. The first interval was always conducted at 0% BWS; thereafter, intervals at 10, 20, and 30% BWS were conducted in random order. Each interval consisted of three stages of 3 min each, at velocities of 14.5, 16.1, and 17.7 km·h−1 for men and 12.9, 14.5, and 16.1 km·h−1 for women. Expired gases, ventilation, breathing frequency, heart rate (HR), rating of perceived exertion (RPE), and stride characteristics were measured during each running speed and BWS. Results: Male and female runners had similar physiological and biomechanical responses to running on LBPPT. Increasing BWS increased stride length (p \u3c 0.02) and flight duration (p \u3c 0.01) and decreased stride rate (p \u3c 0.01) and contact time (p \u3c 0.01) in small-large magnitudes. There was a large attenuation of oxygen consumption (VO2) relative to BWS (p \u3c 0.001), while there were trivial-moderate reductions in respiratory exchange ratio, minute ventilation, and respiratory frequency (p \u3e 0.05), and small-large effects on HR and RPE (p \u3c 0.01). There were trivial-small differences in VE, respiratory frequency, HR, and RPE for a given VO2 across various BWS (p \u3e 0.05). Conclusions: The results indicate the male and female distance runners have similar physiological and biomechanical responses to LBPPT running. Overall, the biomechanical changes during LBPPT running all contributed to less metabolic cost and corresponding physiological changes. Keywords: AlterG, Lower-body positive pressure, Body weight support, Anti-gravity, Running, Stride characteristics, Physiological characteristics, Metabolic demand, Oxygen demand, Oxygen cos

Inclusive V0V^0 Production Cross Sections from 920 GeV Fixed Target Proton-Nucleus Collisions

Inclusive differential cross sections $d\sigma_{pA}/dx_F$ and $d\sigma_{pA}/dp_t^2$ for the production of \kzeros, \lambdazero, and \antilambda particles are measured at HERA in proton-induced reactions on C, Al, Ti, and W targets. The incident beam energy is 920 GeV, corresponding to $\sqrt {s} = 41.6$ GeV in the proton-nucleon system. The ratios of differential cross sections \rklpa and \rllpa are measured to be $6.2\pm 0.5$ and $0.66\pm 0.07$, respectively, for \xf $\approx-0.06$. No significant dependence upon the target material is observed. Within errors, the slopes of the transverse momentum distributions $d\sigma_{pA}/dp_t^2$ also show no significant dependence upon the target material. The dependence of the extrapolated total cross sections $\sigma_{pA}$ on the atomic mass $A$ of the target material is discussed, and the deduced cross sections per nucleon $\sigma_{pN}$ are compared with results obtained at other energies.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, 5 table

Single hadron response measurement and calorimeter jet energy scale uncertainty with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

The uncertainty on the calorimeter energy response to jets of particles is derived for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). First, the calorimeter response to single isolated charged hadrons is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo simulation using proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of sqrt(s) = 900 GeV and 7 TeV collected during 2009 and 2010. Then, using the decay of K_s and Lambda particles, the calorimeter response to specific types of particles (positively and negatively charged pions, protons, and anti-protons) is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo predictions. Finally, the jet energy scale uncertainty is determined by propagating the response uncertainty for single charged and neutral particles to jets. The response uncertainty is 2-5% for central isolated hadrons and 1-3% for the final calorimeter jet energy scale.Comment: 24 pages plus author list (36 pages total), 23 figures, 1 table, submitted to European Physical Journal

Standalone vertex finding in the ATLAS muon spectrometer

A dedicated reconstruction algorithm to find decay vertices in the ATLAS muon spectrometer is presented. The algorithm searches the region just upstream of or inside the muon spectrometer volume for multi-particle vertices that originate from the decay of particles with long decay paths. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated using both a sample of simulated Higgs boson events, in which the Higgs boson decays to long-lived neutral particles that in turn decay to bbar b final states, and pp collision data at √s = 7 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the LHC during 2011