No Time to Lose for the EU: Overcoming the Accession Stalemate in the Western Balkans

EU enlargement policy toward the Western Balkans has never been as contested as today. French President Emmanuel Macron has made reform of the EU accession process a precondition to opening membership talks with Albania and North Macedonia. While the current stalemate severely undermines the EU’s reform and stabilization agenda in the region, it also offers an opportunity for an overhaul of the accession process, which is long overdue

Vom Westlichen Balkan zum "restlichen Balkan"? Auswirkungen des kroatischen EU-Beitritts auf Südosteuropa

Dreizehn Jahre nachdem der Europäische Rat die Länder des Westlichen Balkans zu potenziellen Kandidaten für eine EU-Mitgliedschaft erklärte, konnte Kroatien am 1. Juli 2013 als erster Staat der Region der EU beitreten. Das Regattaprinzip, dem der Vorzug gegenüber dem regionalen Ansatz gegeben wurde, kommt damit erstmals in voller Konsequenz zum Tragen. Die vorliegende Analyse geht der Frage nach, welche Auswirkungen Kroatiens Aufnahme in die Europäische Union für die verbleibenden Beitrittsanwärter Südosteuropas und deren EU-Annäherungsprozess mit sich bringt. Vermag Kroatiens Aufrücken in die Ränge der Mitgliedstaaten auch jene Länder, die Kroatien über kurz oder lang in die Union nachfolgen sollen, näher an die Europäische Union heranzubringen - oder führt dieses vielmehr zur Schaffung neuer Trennlinien? Kroatiens Beitritt stellt eine wichtige Zäsur für die EU-Erweiterungspolitik dar. Die Signalwirkung, die von Kroatiens Mitgliedschaft an die Kandidatenländer sowie an die EU-Mitgliedstaaten ausgeht, aber auch das Verhalten Kroatiens als neuer Akteur in der EU-Erweiterungspolitik werden für deren zukünftige Ausgestaltung wegweisend sein. Darüber hinaus wird angesichts der aktuellen Erweiterung die Bedeutung der in den letzten Jahren erfolgten EU-Integrationsschritte mit den Staaten des Westlichen Balkans klar ersichtlich. Denn der Abbau von Handelsbarrieren, die Übernahme von EU-Normen und -Standards und die Abschaffung der Visumspflicht tragen maßgeblich dazu bei, dass die Beziehungen zwischen dem neuen Mitgliedstaat und den Beitrittsanwärtern keine substanziellen Beeinträchtigungen erfahren. Negative Auswirkungen sind im Gegenzug vor allem in jenen Bereichen und auf jene Länder zu erwarten, wo sich die EU-Assoziierung nach wie vor in einer frühen Phase befindet. Insbesondere für Bosnien-Herzegowina ist Kroatiens Beitritt ein Weckruf, dass es angesichts der fortschreitenden EU-Integration der Nachbarstaaten in der Übernahme des Acquis communautaire Schritt halten muss. Für die EU bedeutet dies, dass sie - bei Beibehaltung des wettbewerbsfördernden Regattaansatzes - auf eine ausgewogene Entwicklung ihrer Beziehungen mit allen Staaten der Region achten und besonderes Augenmerk auf die Nachzügler im Integrationsprozess legen sollte.Thirteen years after the European Council approved the Western Balkan countries as potential candidates for EU membership, Croatia became the first to join the EU on July 1, 2013. The "regatta principle," which was chosen over the earlier regional approach, produced its first result with Croatia. The following analysis addresses the potential effects of Croatia’s accession on the remaining candidate countries in Southeastern Europe and their association process. Could Croatia's rise to the rank of a member state bring the other accession hopefuls, looking to follow in Croatia's footsteps, closer to the EU? Or does Croatia's accession only form new divisions? Croatia's acceptance presents an important turning point in EU enlargement. The signal sent by the new EU member to both candidate countries and EU member states, as well as Croatia's role as a new actor in EU enlargement policy, will be crucial in shaping the accession process of the remaining candidates. Moreover, the accession clearly illustrates the importance of the EU's recent integration steps with the Western Balkans. Breaking down trade barriers, adopting EU norms and standards, and eliminating visa requirements have helped ensure that Croatia's new status will not compromise its relations with the remaining candidate countries. Negative consequences, however, can be expected in those areas and states where the EU association process remains stuck in the early stages. Croatia’s EU membership is a wake-up call for Bosnia and Herzegovina, which, facing the progressive EU integration of neighbor states, needs to step up its efforts to adopt the acquis communautaire. Given the competitive nature of the regatta principle, the EU should develop a balanced approach toward relations with all states in the region, keeping a close eye especially on the candidates whose integration process is lagging behind

Beitrittsregatta in der Flaute: der lange Weg des Westlichen Balkans in die EU

"Der 28. Mitgliedstaat der Europäischen Union wird Kroatien heißen. Am 9. Dezember 2011 wurde der Beitrittsvertrag in Brüssel unterzeichnet, zum 1. Juli 2013 soll das Land der EU beitreten. Damit wird Kroatien jedoch nicht nur das erste, sondern für die kommenden Jahre auch das einzige Land in der Region des Westlichen Balkans sein, um das sich die Union erweitert. Zum einen ist der relativ geradlinige EU-Kurs Kroatiens nicht die Regel, sondern die Ausnahme in einer Region, in der Fragen der Stabilisierung und ungelöste bilaterale Konflikte noch zahlreiche Hindernisse für die EU-Integration der betroffenen Staaten aufwerfen. Zum anderen zeichnen sich – verschärft durch die aktuelle Verschuldungs- und Wirtschaftskrise – auch innerhalb der EU eine klare Tendenz hin zu einer strikten Handhabung der Beitrittskonditionalität und eine zusehends skeptische Haltung gegenüber neuen Erweiterungen ab. Die Frage, wie die EU ihre Anziehungs- und Transformationskraft gegenüber dem Westlichen Balkan aufrechterhalten kann, stellt sich vor diesem Hintergrund mit besonderem Nachdruck." [Autorenreferat

Starker Partner, strenger Kritiker: die zwei Gesichter der deutschen Erweiterungspolitik gegenüber dem Westlichen Balkan

Bundesregierung und Bundestag unternehmen in der Heranführung des Westlichen Balkans an die EU einen Balanceakt: Sie sind bestrebt, die EU-Integration der verbleibenden sechs Beitrittsanwärter Südosteuropas nach Kräften zu unterstützen, gleichzeitig beharren sie diesen gegenüber auf einer strikten Beitrittskonditionalität - das formale Vorankommen im Beitrittsprozess soll von sichtbaren (und nicht bloß deklaratorischen) Reformfortschritten abhängig sein. Die Betonung strenger Reformauflagen richtet sich jedoch nicht nur an die Kandidatenländer - mit ihr wollen deutsche Entscheidungsträger auch einer wachsenden Erweiterungsskepsis, in der EU wie im eigenen Land, Rechnung tragen. Berlin ist bemüht, die transformative Wirkung des Assoziierungsprozesses auszureizen, indem es - nicht immer auf einer Linie mit der Europäischen Kommission oder anderen Mitgliedstaaten - auf einer konservativen Auslegung der Beitrittskonditionalität beharrt. Letztere zieht es auch als Instrument zur Lösung offener Stabilisierungsfragen im Westlichen Balkan heran, die als außenpolitische Herausforderung nur mittelbar zum Beitrittsprozess gehören. Um die Balance zwischen Partnerschaft und Kritik zu wahren, sollte Deutschland auf Kooperation mit den EU-Partnern statt auf Alleingänge setzen, erweiterungspolitische Entscheidungen an den Leistungen der Beitrittsanwärter und nicht an Erweiterungsskepsis in den eigenen Reihen ausrichten und strikte Konditionalität mit starken Anreizen ausgleichen, die auf einer glaubwürdigen Beitrittsperspektive fußen

A comparative analysis of tourism destination demand in Portugal

Tourism has experienced different levels of development in the different regions of Portugal. To frame this development, in this paper dynamic panel data models were estimated with the objective of explaining the evolution of international overnight stays in each region. Secondary data from 2000 to 2011 was used. The analysis includes the main tourism source markets for Portugal, such as the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland, France and Spain. The tourism literature suggests that, among others, the main determinants of tourism demand are income (GDP), household consumption, unemployment rate and the harmonised consumer price index. Per capita income, unemployment rate and final household consumption were identified as the most shared explanatory variables in each tourism region. However, in some regions, the high elasticity with respect to per capita income was confirmed, suggesting that tourism is a luxury good. It is observed that, although significant, the explanatory power of these variables varies according to the origin and the destination region considered. Findings suggest heterogeneous behaviour of the main international tourism demand by region. Furthermore, results also suggest some implications for public and private tourism authorities. Stakeholders can update the analysis, trends and forecasts of international tourism demand, put forward in the National Strategic Plan for Tourism for the period from 2013 to 2015, by taking into account the different macroeconomic variables that help explain international overnight stays in each region of Portugal. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

EU member states and enlargement towards the Balkans. EPC ISSUE PAPER No. 79, July 2015

From the Executive Summary. The European Union’s enlargement to the Balkans seems to be running on autopilot since Croatia’s accession in 2013 and amidst the on-going crisis. While the region still has a clear European perspective, progress on the dossier has been marred not just by outstanding challenges in individual Balkan countries but often also by hurdles which develop within the Union – more specifically in the member states. While the EU’s internal procedures for handling enlargement have always been intergovernmental in nature, the frequency of incursions and opportunities for the member states to interfere and derail the process has increased over the past years, suggesting a so-called ‘nationalisation’ of enlargement. In 17 case studies and two theoretical chapters, this Issue Paper investigates whether the dossier has shifted more under the control of the member states, and looks at the kind of considerations and potential ‘roadblocks’ that influence the positions of key national actors on enlargement

Формирование эмоциональной культуры как компонента инновационной культуры студентов

Homozygosity has long been associated with rare, often devastating, Mendelian disorders1 and Darwin was one of the first to recognise that inbreeding reduces evolutionary fitness2. However, the effect of the more distant parental relatedness common in modern human populations is less well understood. Genomic data now allow us to investigate the effects of homozygosity on traits of public health importance by observing contiguous homozygous segments (runs of homozygosity, ROH), which are inferred to be homozygous along their complete length. Given the low levels of genome-wide homozygosity prevalent in most human populations, information is required on very large numbers of people to provide sufficient power3,4. Here we use ROH to study 16 health-related quantitative traits in 354,224 individuals from 102 cohorts and find statistically significant associations between summed runs of homozygosity (SROH) and four complex traits: height, forced expiratory lung volume in 1 second (FEV1), general cognitive ability (g) and educational attainment (nominal p<1 × 10−300, 2.1 × 10−6, 2.5 × 10−10, 1.8 × 10−10). In each case increased homozygosity was associated with decreased trait value, equivalent to the offspring of first cousins being 1.2 cm shorter and having 10 months less education. Similar effect sizes were found across four continental groups and populations with different degrees of genome-wide homozygosity, providing convincing evidence for the first time that homozygosity, rather than confounding, directly contributes to phenotypic variance. Contrary to earlier reports in substantially smaller samples5,6, no evidence was seen of an influence of genome-wide homozygosity on blood pressure and low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, or ten other cardio-metabolic traits. Since directional dominance is predicted for traits under directional evolutionary selection7, this study provides evidence that increased stature and cognitive function have been positively selected in human evolution, whereas many important risk factors for late-onset complex diseases may not have been

Large-scale genome-wide analysis identifies genetic variants associated with cardiac structure and function

BACKGROUND: Understanding the genetic architecture of cardiac structure and function may help to prevent and treat heart disease. This investigation sought to identify common genetic variations associated with inter-individual variability in cardiac structure and function. METHODS: A GWAS meta-analysis of echocardiographic traits was performed, including 46,533 individuals from 30 studies (EchoGen consortium). The analysis included 16 traits of left ventricular (LV) structure, and systolic and diastolic function. RESULTS: The discovery analysis included 21 cohorts for structural and systolic function traits (n = 32,212) and 17 cohorts for diastolic function traits (n = 21,852). Replication was performed in 5 cohorts (n = 14,321) and 6 cohorts (n = 16,308), respectively. Besides 5 previously reported loci, the combined meta-analysis identified 10 additional genome-wide significant SNPs: rs12541595 near MTSS1 and rs10774625 in ATXN2 for LV end-diastolic internal dimension; rs806322 near KCNRG, rs4765663 in CACNA1C, rs6702619 near PALMD, rs7127129 in TMEM16A, rs11207426 near FGGY, rs17608766 in GOSR2, and rs17696696 in CFDP1 for aortic root diameter; and rs12440869 in IQCH for Doppler transmitral A-wave peak velocity. Findings were in part validated in other cohorts and in GWAS of related disease traits. The genetic loci showed associations with putative signaling pathways, and with gene expression in whole blood, monocytes, and myocardial tissue. CONCLUSION: The additional genetic loci identified in this large meta-analysis of cardiac structure and function provide insights into the underlying genetic architecture of cardiac structure and warrant follow-up in future functional studies. FUNDING: For detailed information per study, see Acknowledgments.This work was supported by a grant from the US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (N01-HL-25195; R01HL 093328 to RSV), a MAIFOR grant from the University Medical Center Mainz, Germany (to PSW), the Center for Translational Vascular Biology (CTVB) of the Johannes Gutenberg-University of Mainz, and the Federal Ministry of Research and Education, Germany (BMBF 01EO1003 to PSW). This work was also supported by the research project Greifswald Approach to Individualized Medicine (GANI_MED). GANI_MED was funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research and the Ministry of Cultural Affairs of the Federal State of Mecklenburg, West Pomerania (contract 03IS2061A). We thank all study participants, and the colleagues and coworkers from all cohorts and sites who were involved in the generation of data or in the analysis. We especially thank Andrew Johnson (FHS) for generation of the gene annotation database used for analysis. We thank the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK e.V.) for supporting the analysis and publication of this project. RSV is a member of the Scientific Advisory Board of the DZHK. Data on CAD and MI were contributed by CARDIoGRAMplusC4D investigators. See Supplemental Acknowledgments for consortium details. PSW, JFF, AS, AT, TZ, RSV, and MD had full access to all of the data in the study and take responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis

A novel Alzheimer disease locus located near the gene encoding tau protein

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordAPOE ε4, the most significant genetic risk factor for Alzheimer disease (AD), may mask effects of other loci. We re-analyzed genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP) Consortium in APOE ε4+ (10 352 cases and 9207 controls) and APOE ε4- (7184 cases and 26 968 controls) subgroups as well as in the total sample testing for interaction between a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and APOE ε4 status. Suggestive associations (P<1 × 10-4) in stage 1 were evaluated in an independent sample (stage 2) containing 4203 subjects (APOE ε4+: 1250 cases and 536 controls; APOE ε4-: 718 cases and 1699 controls). Among APOE ε4- subjects, novel genome-wide significant (GWS) association was observed with 17 SNPs (all between KANSL1 and LRRC37A on chromosome 17 near MAPT) in a meta-analysis of the stage 1 and stage 2 data sets (best SNP, rs2732703, P=5·8 × 10-9). Conditional analysis revealed that rs2732703 accounted for association signals in the entire 100-kilobase region that includes MAPT. Except for previously identified AD loci showing stronger association in APOE ε4+ subjects (CR1 and CLU) or APOE ε4- subjects (MS4A6A/MS4A4A/MS4A6E), no other SNPs were significantly associated with AD in a specific APOE genotype subgroup. In addition, the finding in the stage 1 sample that AD risk is significantly influenced by the interaction of APOE with rs1595014 in TMEM106B (P=1·6 × 10-7) is noteworthy, because TMEM106B variants have previously been associated with risk of frontotemporal dementia. Expression quantitative trait locus analysis revealed that rs113986870, one of the GWS SNPs near rs2732703, is significantly associated with four KANSL1 probes that target transcription of the first translated exon and an untranslated exon in hippocampus (P≤1.3 × 10-8), frontal cortex (P≤1.3 × 10-9) and temporal cortex (P≤1.2 × 10-11). Rs113986870 is also strongly associated with a MAPT probe that targets transcription of alternatively spliced exon 3 in frontal cortex (P=9.2 × 10-6) and temporal cortex (P=2.6 × 10-6). Our APOE-stratified GWAS is the first to show GWS association for AD with SNPs in the chromosome 17q21.31 region. Replication of this finding in independent samples is needed to verify that SNPs in this region have significantly stronger effects on AD risk in persons lacking APOE ε4 compared with persons carrying this allele, and if this is found to hold, further examination of this region and studies aimed at deciphering the mechanism(s) are warranted