An Information Theory Approach to Hypothesis Testing in Criminological Research

Background: This research demonstrates how the Akaike information criterion (AIC) can be an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing in selecting best fitting models. It presents an example to illustrate how AIC can be used in this way. Methods: Using data from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, we test models of place-based predictor variables on street robbery and commercial robbery. We build models to balance explanatory power and parsimony. Measures include the presence of different kinds of businesses, together with selected age groups and social disadvantage. Results: Models including place-based measures of land use emerged as the best models among the set of tested models. These were superior to models that included measures of age and socioeconomic status. The best models for commercial and street robbery include three measures of ordinary businesses, liquor stores, and spatial lag. Conclusions: Models based on information theory offer a useful alternative to significance testing when a strong theoretical framework guides the selection of model sets. Theoretically relevant ‘ordinary businesses’ have a greater influence on robbery than socioeconomic variables and most measures of discretionary businesses

Satellite confirmation of the dominance of chlorofluorocarbons in the global stratospheric chlorine budget

OBSERVED increases in concentrations of chlorine in the stratosphere1-7 have been widely implicated in the depletion of lower-stratospheric ozone over the past two decades8-14. The present concentration of stratospheric chlorine is more than five times that expected from known natural 'background' emissions from the oceans and biomass burning15-18, and the balance has been estimated to be dominantly anthropogenic in origin, primarily due to the breakdown products of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)19,20. But despite the wealth of scientific data linking chlorofluorocarbon emissions to the observed chlorine increases, the political sensitivity of the ozone-depletion issue has generated a re-examination of the evidence21,22. Here we report a four-year global time series of satellite observations of hydrogen chloride (HCl) and hydrogen fluoride (HF) in the stratosphere, which shows conclusively that chlorofluorocarbon releases - rather than other anthropogenic or natural emissions - are responsible for the recent global increases in stratospheric chlorine concentrations. Moreover, all but a few per cent of observed stratospheric chlorine amounts can be accounted for by known natural and anthropogenic tropospheric emissions. Altogether, these results implicate the chlorofluorocarbon s beyond reasonable doubt as dominating ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere

Italian guidelines for primary headaches: 2012 revised version

The first edition of the Italian diagnostic and therapeutic guidelines for primary headaches in adults was published in J Headache Pain 2(Suppl. 1):105–190 (2001). Ten years later, the guideline committee of the Italian Society for the Study of Headaches (SISC) decided it was time to update therapeutic guidelines. A literature search was carried out on Medline database, and all articles on primary headache treatments in English, German, French and Italian published from February 2001 to December 2011 were taken into account. Only randomized controlled trials (RCT) and meta-analyses were analysed for each drug. If RCT were lacking, open studies and case series were also examined. According to the previous edition, four levels of recommendation were defined on the basis of levels of evidence, scientific strength of evidence and clinical effectiveness. Recommendations for symptomatic and prophylactic treatment of migraine and cluster headache were therefore revised with respect to previous 2001 guidelines and a section was dedicated to non-pharmacological treatment. This article reports a summary of the revised version published in extenso in an Italian version

Search for neutral MSSM Higgs bosons decaying to a pair of tau leptons in pp collisions

Peer reviewe

Measurement of prompt J/ψ pair production in pp collisions at √s = 7 Tev

Peer reviewe

Measurement of top quark–antiquark pair production in association with a W or Z boson in pp collisions at √s=8 TeV

Peer reviewe

Searches for electroweak production of charginos, neutralinos, and sleptons decaying to leptons and W, Z, and Higgs bosons in pp collisions at 8 TeV

Peer reviewe

Study of hadronic event-shape variables in multijet final states in pp collisions at √s=7 TeV

Peer reviewe

Constraints on parton distribution functions and extraction of the strong coupling constant from the inclusive jet cross section in pp collisions at √s=7 TeV

Peer reviewe

Study of Vector Boson Scattering and Search for New Physics in Events with Two Same-Sign Leptons and Two Jets

A study of vector boson scattering in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV is presented. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 19.4 fb(-1) collected with the CMS detector. Candidate events are selected with exactly two leptons of the same charge, two jets with large rapidity separation and high dijet mass, and moderate missing transverse energy. The signal region is expected to be dominated by electroweak same-sign W-boson pair production. The observation agrees with the standard model prediction. The observed significance is 2.0 standard deviations, where a significance of 3.1 standard deviations is expected based on the standard model. Cross section measurements for (WW +/-)-W-+/- and WZ processes in the fiducial region are reported. Bounds on the structure of quartic vector-boson interactions are given in the framework of dimension-eight effective field theory operators, as well as limits on the production of doubly charged Higgs bosons