Predicting Domestic Homicides and Serious Violence in Dorset: A Replication of Thornton's Thames Valley Analysis

Research Question: What facts known to police, if any, could have predicted the 107 domestic and family murders and near-murders in Dorset (UK) police area over a recent seven-year period, using methods identical to Thornton’s (2011, 2017)? Data: All 107 cases of domestic murders, manslaughter, attempted murder or grievous bodily harm with intent in Dorset between April 2009 and March 2015, plus a matched case-control sample of 214 arrestees for less-deadly violent offences. Methods: Replicating Thornton’s Thames Valley analysis, two methods were used: 1) calculating errors in predictions from previous risk assessments using the UK’s DASH (Domestic Abuse, Stalking and Harassment) risk assessment protocol, and 2) making a case-control comparisons of Thornton’s risk factors between the deadly domestic violence cases in Dorset to a Dorset sample of victims and offenders in all violence cases during the same time period. Findings: False negative risk assessments were found in 67% of the deadly violence cases with prior police contact (45 of 67) not classified by DASH as “high risk.“ The false positives in the same time period totalled 12,279 cases of no serious harm among 12,301 cases receiving high-risk assessments, for a 99% false positive rate. Possible alternative predictors were found in differences between deadly offenders and controls, both male and female, although it is not known whether these variables were added to the records before or after the deadly violence event. Male offenders in deadly violence cases were 120% more likely to have their police records note a self-harm warning, 20% more likely to have a suicide warning, yet only half as likely to have a mental health warning as control case males. Female offenders in deadly violence cases were 355% more likely to have a weapons warning on file, 244% more likely to have a mental health warning, and 146% more likely to have a drugs warning than female control case offenders. Conclusions: The current risk assessment tool (DASH) failed to predict the majority of deadly domestic violence cases over six years in Dorset. Other factors could do better, but more research is required before highly accurate forecasting tools can be applied to help save the lives of more domestic abuse victims. Key Words: Domestic homicide, prediction, DASH, case control, suicide threats, self-harm

Targeting Escalation and Harm in Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from Northern Territory Police, Australia

Research Question: Does analysis of intimate partner violence (IPV) among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal couples in the Northern Territory (NT), Australia reveal any predictable escalation in frequency or severity of harm over a four-year observation period? Data: We examined all 61,796 incidents of IPV recorded by the NT Police for 23,104 unique couples (‘dyads’), over the five year period from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2014. For purposes of analysing changes over time in frequency and harm, we used standardized observation periods (generally four years) from first incident to end of observations. Methods: Each IPV incident was re-classified by crime type using the penal code of England and Wales, in order to measure the severity of harm in NT with the Cambridge Crime Harm Index (CHI). The CHI scores were used to test for patterns of concentration and escalation, based on the total days of recommended imprisonment for each offence type, summed across all offences of that type for the entire sample. Findings: The findings were sharply split between Aboriginal and white dyads. While there was no evidence of escalation in either frequency or severity of IPV 2 incidents in the white dyads, there was substantial evidence of escalation among Aboriginal offenders with three or more incidents in a four year period. Less than 2% of white offenders (2 of 111) had three or more incidents in four years, compared to 32.4% of Aboriginals (N = 105 out of 355 offenders). For those couples of both races known by police to have two or more incidents, there was a strong pattern of escalation in the frequency and seriousness of offending for up to 20 incidents over four years. While 66% of couples had desisted by year 3 with no further reports that year or the next, among the 34% of couples (N= 3,621) persisting into year 3 the probability of a new incident by year 4 was 99.9%. Similarly, the time between incidents for these repeaters declined with each new incident, indicating an increase in frequency. Severity of harm also rose with repeated incidents, from 0.6 of expected Cambridge CHI value per dyad among couples with 1 to 5 incidents over four years to 3.82 times higher than expected value per dyad among those couples observed to have 16-20 incidents over four years—six times more harm among couples (almost entirely Aboriginals) with the highest frequency of incidents than among couples with the lowest frequency. Conclusions: This targeting analysis confirms other research that shows no escalation in frequency or severity of domestic abuse among predominantly white European populations. Yet it also provides the first systematic test of the escalation hypothesis about IPV reported to police among Australian Aboriginal dyads. That evidence provides a strong basis in evidence for developing a two-track policy for policing IPV in Australian areas with substantial Indigenous populations. Track 1 would serve dyads (of either race) presenting for the first or second time, for whom a light touch may generally be sufficient. Yet any couple known to have had two or more prior offences could receive a far more intensive 3 strategic investment, including the testing of new strategies for prevention of escalation in harm or frequency of IPV. Yet because this pattern of escalation is found only in a minority of Aboriginal dyads, it is important to base policy on evidence-based targeting of dyads with prior occurrences rather than race. KEY WORDS: Intimate Partner Violence/Domestic Abuse/ Aboriginal Offenders and Victims/ Police/ Evidence-Based Targetin

Effects of recruit training on police attitudes towards diversity: a randomised controlled trial of a values education programme.

Research Question Did a values education program taught to Queensland police recruits change their attitudes towards police workplace diversity and equality, relative to recruits in the same cohorts who did not received the program? Data A survey designed to measure attitudes towards workplace diversity and related issues was administered three times to 260 police recruits, who were randomly assigned to receive a values education program or not over the 25-week initial police recruit course. The surveys were conducted in week two of the course, at the conclusion of the values education program, and six weeks after the program concluded. Methods Three separate cohorts were split by batch random assignment into experimental and controls, for 132 experimental recruits and 128 controls. Using a variety of validated scales and items, the attitudes of the two groups were compared at all three survey waves, and in comparative longitudinal trends. Findings While the values education program did not improve experimental group recruit attitudes towards diversity in the workplace over time, it protected that group from a clear decline in support for diversity associated with the standard recruit training experience. Because the design was an RCT, the study clearly revealed that the benefit of the program was as a successful buffer against what happened to reduce diversity support among the other recruits. Conclusions The findings show that in at least one police recruit experience, there is a clear shift away from support for diversity by race and gender in the police workplace in the course of initial training. Fortunately, the results also provide at least one possible preventative measure for that problem, in the form of a values education program similar to one used widely in many countries

Reducing the Harm of Intimate Partner Violence: Randomized Controlled Trial of the Hampshire Constabulary CARA Experiment

Research Question: Among Southampton-area males arrested for and admitting to low-risk intimate partner violence as a first domestic offence and receiving a conditional caution, did a randomly assigned requirement to attend (with 5 to 7 other male offenders), two weekend day-long Cautioning and Relationship Abuse (CARA) workshops led by experienced professionals reduce the total severity of crime harm relative to a no-workshop control group? Data: Eligible offenders (N =293) were randomly assigned to the CARA workshop attendance requirement (n= 154) or to the no-workshop requirement (n = 139), with 91% of all cases receiving treatment as randomly assigned. Each offender’s records of police contact were tracked for exactly 365 days after the date of random assignment. Methods: All repeat arrests or complaints of crime naming the 293 randomly assigned offenders were coded by the Cambridge Crime Harm Index (CHI) as the primary outcome measure for each offender (Sherman et al 2016), with the sum of total days of recommended imprisonment for each offence (as the guideline starting point for sentencing) summed across all new offences, with both domestic and non-domestic relationships to their victims. Prevalence and frequency of repeat contact were also computed. All analysis was done by intention-to-treat. Findings: Offenders assigned to the workshop group were re-arrested for crimes with a total Crime Harm Index (CHI) value that was 27% lower than for re-arrests of offenders assigned to the control group (P =.011). The CARA workshop group members were arrested for crimes totalling an average of 8.4 days of recommended imprisonment under English sentencing guidelines, compared to an average of 11.6 days per offender assigned to the control group, the equivalent of 38% more harm without the workshop than with it. The effect size was much stronger, however, in the first study period of high caseflow (72% reduction in CHI, P = .001) than in the second period (21% reduction in CHI, P =.178). Frequency of re-arrest for domestic abuse (21% lower for workshop-assigned group) and prevalence (35% lower for workshop-assigned group) also favoured the CARA workshop group. Conclusions: The results of this one-year followup analysis suggest that the CARA workshops are an effective way to reduce the future harm of domestic abuse among first offenders who admit their crime, although effect size may vary over time. Given the highly restrictive eligibility criteria for the programme, these findings provide an evidence-based reason for testing the same treatment among a larger proportion of all first-offender arrests for domestic abuse. Keywords Intimate partner violence – policing – RCT—Crime Harm Index--CAR

A primary care database study of asthma among patients with and without opioid use disorders

Substance misuse is associated with poor asthma outcome and death. People with opioid use disorder (OUD) may be at particular risk, however, there have been no case-control studies of asthma care and outcomes in this patient group. A primary care database study of patients with asthma aged 16–65 years was conducted using a matched case-control methodology. The dataset comprised 275,151 adults with asthma, of whom 459 had a clinical code indicating a lifetime history of OUD. Cases with a history of OUD were matched to controls 1:3 by age, gender, smoking status and deprivation index decile. Attendance at annual review (30%) and for immunisation (25%) was poor amongst the overall matched study population (N = 1832). Compared to matched controls, cases were less likely to have attended for asthma review during the previous 12 months (OR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.45–0.80) but had similar immunisation rates. Higher rates of ICS (OR = 1.50, 1.13–1.98) and oral prednisolone use (OR = 1.71, 1.25–2.40) were seen amongst those with a history of OUD and 7.2% had a concurrent diagnosis of COPD (OR = 1.86, 1.12–2.40). We found that people with asthma and a history of OUD have worse outcomes on several commonly measured metrics of asthma care. Further research is required to identify reasons for these findings, the most effective strategies to help this vulnerable group access basic asthma care, and to better understand long-term respiratory outcomes

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Search for R-parity-violating supersymmetry in events with four or more leptons in sqrt(s) =7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for new phenomena in final states with four or more leptons (electrons or muons) is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of $\sqrt{s}=7\;\mathrm{TeV}$ proton-proton collisions delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in two signal regions: one that requires moderate values of missing transverse momentum and another that requires large effective mass. The results are interpreted in a simplified model of R-parity-violating supersymmetry in which a 95% CL exclusion region is set for charged wino masses up to 540 GeV. In an R-parity-violating MSUGRA/CMSSM model, values of m 1/2 up to 820 GeV are excluded for 10 < tan β < 40

Search for high-mass resonances decaying to dilepton final states in pp collisions at s√=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider is used to search for high-mass resonances decaying to an electron-positron pair or a muon-antimuon pair. The search is sensitive to heavy neutral Z′ gauge bosons, Randall-Sundrum gravitons, Z * bosons, techni-mesons, Kaluza-Klein Z/γ bosons, and bosons predicted by Torsion models. Results are presented based on an analysis of pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.9 fb−1 in the e + e − channel and 5.0 fb−1 in the μ + μ −channel. A Z ′ boson with Standard Model-like couplings is excluded at 95 % confidence level for masses below 2.22 TeV. A Randall-Sundrum graviton with coupling k/MPl=0.1 is excluded at 95 % confidence level for masses below 2.16 TeV. Limits on the other models are also presented, including Technicolor and Minimal Z′ Models