Results of 1/4-Scale Experiments. Vapor Simulant And Liquid Jet A Tests

A quarter-scale engineering model of the center wing tank (CWT) of a 747-100 was constructed. This engineering model replicated the compartmentalization, passageways, and venting to the atmosphere. The model was designed to scale the fluid dynamical and combustion aspects of the explosion, not the structural failure of the beams or spars. The effect of structural failure on combustion was examined by using model beams and spars with deliberately engineered weak connections to the main tank structure. The model was filled with a simulant fuel (a mixture of propane and hydrogen) and ignited with a hot wire. The simulant fuel was chosen on the basis of laboratory testing to model the combustion characteristics (pressure rise and flame speed) of Jet A vapor created by a Jet A liquid layer at 50C at an altitude of 13.8 kft. A series of experiments was carried out in this model in order to: (a) investigate combustion in a CWT geometry; and (b) provide guidance to the TWA 800 crash investigation. The results of the experiments were observed with high-speed film, video, and still cameras, fast and slow pressure sensors, thermocouples, photodetectors, and motion sensors. A special pseudo-schlieren system was used to visualize flame propagation within the tank. This report describes the test program, facility, instrumentation, the first 30 experiments, comparisons between experiments, and performance of the instrumentation; then examines the significance of these results to the TWA 800 crash investigation. The key results of this study are: Flame Motion: The motion of flame was dominated by the effects of turbulence created by jetting through the passageways and vent stringers. A very rapid combustion event (lasting 10 to 20 ms) occurred once the flame traveled outside of the ignition bay and interacted with the turbulent flow. Most of the gas within the tank was burned during this rapid event. Compartments: The combustion time decreased with an increasing number of compartments (bays) within the tank. With six bays, combustion took only 100 to 150 ms to be completed from the time of ignition until the end of the rapid combustion phase. The total combustion event was three to four times shorter with compartments than without. Venting: Venting to the outside of the tank through the model vent stringers had a negligible effect on the combustion progress or on the peak pressure reached at the end of the burn. Ignition Location: Variation of the ignition location produced distinctive pressure loads on the structural components. Liquid Fuel: Lofting of a cold liquid fuel layer was produced by the combustion-induced gas motion. Although this spray of liquid eventually ignited and burned, it did not contribute to the pressure loading. Structural Failure: Structural failure resulted in flame acceleration, decreasing the overall combustion time. TWA 800 Investigation: The pressure loads were sufficiently high, up to 4 bar, and the combustion events were sufficiently short, that the forward portion (spanwise beam 3, front spar) of the CWT structure would fail as a direct consequence of the explosion. A combination of pressure loads was produced in some tests consistent with the TWA 800 wreckage. Replica tests, structural modeling, and sensitivity studies on fuel concentration are needed before any conclusions can be drawn about probable ignition locations. Cargo Bay: Tests with a simplified model of a half-full cargo bay indicated that repeated pressure waves with an amplitude of 1 bar or less are produced when an explosion scenario similar to TWA 800 is tested. Future Testing: Future studies should include replica tests, tests with Jet A vapor and warm liquid Jet A layers, and sensitivity tests to examine ignition location, fuel concentration, and vent area perturbations. Summary: Explosion tests in a 747-100 CWT model reveal that a very complex pattern of combustion occurs due the interaction of the flame and the flow-generated turbulence. A wide range of structural load patterns occur, depending on the location of the ignition source. Some of these load patterns are consistent with damage believed to be associated with the initial explosion event in TWA 800. Sensitivity of the loading to the ignition location indicates that narrowing down the ignition location in TWA 800 may be possible. However, the complexity of the combustion and structural failure processes in the actual center wing tank mandates extremely careful consideration of the uncertainties that enter into this process

The Minimum Important Difference for the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-Urinary Incontinence Short Form in Women with Stress Urinary Incontinence

INTRODUCTION: Minimum important difference (MID) estimates the minimum degree of change in an instrument\u27s score that correlates with a patient\u27s subjective sense of improvement. We aimed to determine the MID for the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-Urinary Incontinence Short Form (ICIQ-UI SF) using both anchor based and distribution based methods derived using data from the Trial of Midurethral Slings (TOMUS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Instruments for the anchor-based analyses included the urogenital distress inventory (UDI), incontinence impact questionnaire (IIQ), patient global impression of improvement (PGI-I), incontinence episodes (IE) on 7-day bladder diary, and satisfaction with surgical results. After confirming moderate correlation (r ≥ 0.3) of ICIQ-UI SF and each anchor, MIDs were determined by calculating the difference between the mean instrument scores for individuals with the smallest amount of improvement and with no change. The distribution-based method of MID assessment was applied using effect sizes of 0.2 and 0.5 SD (small to medium effects). Triangulation was used to examine these multiple MID values in order to converge on a small range of values. RESULTS: Anchor-based MIDs range from -4.5 to -5.7 at 12 months and from -3.1 to 4.3 at 24 months. Distribution-based MID values were lower. Triangulation analysis supports a MID of -5 at 12 months and -4 at 24 months. CONCLUSION: The recommended MIDs for ICIQ-UI SF are -5 at 12 months and -4 at 24 months. In surgical patients, ICIQ-UI SF score changes that meet these thresholds can be considered clinically meaningful

Randomized Trial of Letrozole Following Tamoxifen as Extended Adjuvant Therapy in Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer: Updated Findings from NCIC CTG MA.17

Background: Most recurrences in women with breast cancer receiving 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen occur after 5 years. The MA.17 trial, which was designed to determine whether extended adjuvant therapy with the aromatase inhibitor letrozole after tamoxifen reduces the risk of such late recurrences, was stopped early after an interim analysis showed that letrozole improved disease-free survival. This report presents updated findings from the trial. Methods: Postmenopausal women completing 5 years of tamoxifen treatment were randomly assigned to a planned 5 years of letrozole (n = 2593) or placebo (n = 2594). The primary endpoint was disease-free survival (DFS); secondary endpoints included distant disease-free survival, overall survival, incidence of contralateral tumors, and toxic effects. Survival was examined using Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank tests. Planned subgroup analyses included those by axillary lymph node status. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: After a median follow-up of 30 months (range = 1.5-61.4 months), women in the letrozole arm had statistically significantly better DFS and distant DFS than women in the placebo arm (DFS: hazard ratio [HR] for recurrence or contralateral breast cancer = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45 to 0.76; P<.001; distant DFS: HR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.43 to 0.84; P = .002). Overall survival was the same in both arms (HR for death from any cause = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.57 to 1.19; P = .3). However, among lymph node-positive patients, overall survival was statistically significantly improved with letrozole (HR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.38 to 0.98; P = .04). The incidence of contralateral breast cancer was lower in women receiving letrozole, but the difference was not statistically significant. Women receiving letrozole experienced more hormonally related side effects than those receiving placebo, but the incidences of bone fractures and cardiovascular events were the same. Conclusion: Letrozole after tamoxifen is well-tolerated and improves both disease-free and distant disease-free survival but not overall survival, except in node-positive patient

Power-Law Scaling in the Brain Surface Electric Potential

Recent studies have identified broadband phenomena in the electric potentials produced by the brain. We report the finding of power-law scaling in these signals using subdural electrocorticographic recordings from the surface of human cortex. The power spectral density (PSD) of the electric potential has the power-law form from 80 to 500 Hz. This scaling index, , is conserved across subjects, area in the cortex, and local neural activity levels. The shape of the PSD does not change with increases in local cortical activity, but the amplitude, , increases. We observe a “knee” in the spectra at , implying the existence of a characteristic time scale . Below , we explore two-power-law forms of the PSD, and demonstrate that there are activity-related fluctuations in the amplitude of a power-law process lying beneath the rhythms. Finally, we illustrate through simulation how, small-scale, simplified neuronal models could lead to these power-law observations. This suggests a new paradigm of non-oscillatory “asynchronous,” scale-free, changes in cortical potentials, corresponding to changes in mean population-averaged firing rate, to complement the prevalent “synchronous” rhythm-based paradigm

Tourism economics research: A review and assessment

This paper aims to provide the most up-to-date survey of tourism economics research and to summarise the key trends in its recent development. Particular attention is paid to the research progress made over the last decade in respect of approaches, methodological innovations, emerging topics, research gaps, and directions for future research. Remarkable but unbalanced developments have been observed across different sub-research areas in tourism economics. While neoclassical economics has contributed the most to the development of tourism economics, alternative schools of thought in economics have also emerged in advancing our understanding of tourism from different perspectives. As tourism studies are multi- and inter-disciplinary, integrating economics with other social science disciplines will further contribute to knowledge creation in tourism studies

Stratospheric aerosol - Observations, processes, and impact on climate

Interest in stratospheric aerosol and its role in climate have increased over the last decade due to the observed increase in stratospheric aerosol since 2000 and the potential for changes in the sulfur cycle induced by climate change. This review provides an overview about the advances in stratospheric aerosol research since the last comprehensive assessment of stratospheric aerosol was published in 2006. A crucial development since 2006 is the substantial improvement in the agreement between in situ and space-based inferences of stratospheric aerosol properties during volcanically quiescent periods. Furthermore, new measurement systems and techniques, both in situ and space based, have been developed for measuring physical aerosol properties with greater accuracy and for characterizing aerosol composition. However, these changes induce challenges to constructing a long-term stratospheric aerosol climatology. Currently, changes in stratospheric aerosol levels less than 20% cannot be confidently quantified. The volcanic signals tend to mask any nonvolcanically driven change, making them difficult to understand. While the role of carbonyl sulfide as a substantial and relatively constant source of stratospheric sulfur has been confirmed by new observations and model simulations, large uncertainties remain with respect to the contribution from anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. New evidence has been provided that stratospheric aerosol can also contain small amounts of nonsulfate matter such as black carbon and organics. Chemistry-climate models have substantially increased in quantity and sophistication. In many models the implementation of stratospheric aerosol processes is coupled to radiation and/or stratospheric chemistry modules to account for relevant feedback processes