A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey

This study seeks to validity of the export-led growth hypothesis using quarterly data from 1980 to 2005. The bounds testing approach to cointegration is employed to test the causal relationship between industrial production, exports and terms of trade. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented to identify the direction of relationship among the variables both in the short-run and the long-run. The empirical findings suggest uni-directional causation from exports to industrial production.Export-led growth; causality; cointegration; Turkey

The impact of football point systems on the competitive balance: evidence from some european football leagues

Introduction - 1 Outcome of uncertainty and competitive balance in professional team sports - 2 Measurement of competitive balance in professional team sports - 3 Football point systems and competitive balance: empirical evidence - 4. Concluding remarks

Modelling life expectancy in Turkey

This study is concerned with understanding the factors of life expectancy in Turkey for the period 1965-2005. The determinants of life expectancy in Turkey are related to selected social, economical and environmental factors. Bounds testing approach to cointegration is employed to compute the long-run elasticities of longevity with respect to the selected economic, social and environmental factors. There exists no previous study that estimates empirically the determinants of life expectancy in Turkey on the basis of time series data and cointegration framework. Empirical results suggest that nutrition and food availability along with health expenditures are the main positive factors for improving longevity whereas smoking seems to be the main cause for mortality. The results also draw a number of policy recommendations for improving longevity.life expectancy; econometrics; cointegration; elasticities; Turkey.

Defense Spending and economic growth in Turkey: an empirical application of new macroeconomic theory

This study prsents new empirical evidence on the relationship between the level of of economic growth and defense expenditures in the case of Turkey for the period of 1950-2002. On using new macroeconomic and multivariate cointegration procedure, this study demonstrates empirically that there exists apositive relationship between aggregate defense spending and aggregate output in Turkey. In addition, the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests confirm the stability of aggregateb output function. The results obtained from this study are, by and large, in line with the previous studies concerning Turkey.aggregate output, aggregate defense spending, cointegration, stability tests, Turkey

The Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus for Turkey

This study investigates the validity of the demand-pulling and the supply-leading hypotheses using annual data from 1968 to 2005. The bounds testing approach to cointegration is conducted to establish the existence of a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented to identify the direction of causality among the variables both in the short-run and the long-run. The empirical findings suggest unidirectional causation from financial development to economic growth.Growth, financial intermediation, causality, cointegration, Turkey

The Gibson Paradox: An Empirical Investigation for Turkey

This paper tests the existence of Gibson paradox using the traditional and modern time series techniques in the case of annual Turkish data. Even though the results from the traditional Gibson paradox regression suggested a positive relationship between the interest rates and the prices levels in Turkish data, subsequently it was proven to be spurious. On analyzing the time series properties of the variables and the results from the Johansen cointegration procedure, we reveal that there is no support of the Gibson paradox in Turkish data.Gibson paradox; co-integration; Turkey

AN ARDL MODEL OF AGGREGATE TOURISM DEMAND FOR TURKEY

This study empirically examines aggregate tourism demand function for Turkey using the time series data for the period 1960-2002. The total tourist arrivals into Turkey are related to world income, relative prices and transportation cost. We employ bounds testing cointegration procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) to compute the short and long-run elasticities of income, price, and transportation cost variables. We also implement CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests on the aggregate tourism demand function. The empirical results indicate that income is the most significant variable in explaining the total tourist arrivals to Turkey and there exists a stable tourism demand function.

THE BLACK ECONOMY IN TURKEY: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

The existing economic literature on the black economy and its measurable size is mainly based on industrialized western countries. This paper, however, tries to estimate the size of the black economy empirically in the case of a developing country: Turkey. According to the monetary approach that this paper has also adopted, the size of the black economy in Turkey has an ever increasing trend and reached nearly 10% of its GNP in 1997. Moreover, this paper also suggests that there is further scope for the black economy in Turkey since the tax burden is relatively low. And currently, the Turkish government is trying to increase taxes, which may lead to a further expansion in the size of the black economy in Turkey.black economy, monetary policy, Turkey

CAN WE PREDICT THE OUTCOME OF THE INTERNATIONAL FOOTBALL TOURNAMENTS : THE CASE OF EURO 2000?

This paper statistically analyses and attempts to predict the most likely winners of the Euro 2000 football tournament on the basis of the seasonal coefficients of variation (CVs) of the end-of-season points, which were computed from the top division final standings of participating countries of Euro 2000. The CV values computed from over ten seasons for the respective countries were used as a sole measurement value to rank the countries and to determine the most likely winners of Euro 2000. According to the three scenarios (long-term, mid-term, and short-term) based on the respective CV values of fifteen countries, France appeared to be the most likely country to win Euro 2000 and was closely followed by Spain.Football, Ranking, UEFA, Sports forecasts.