Towards universal early years provision : analysis of take-up by disadvantaged families from recent annual childcare surveys

The findings of this study suggest that lack of awareness of the entitlement to free early years provision and a low level of information about local options for nursery education and childcare were important factors affecting take-up of early years provision by disadvantaged families. In addition, the way the entitlement to free early years provision is delivered through a range of providers appeared to have an impact on its uptake by the disadvantaged families

Families Experiencing Multiple Disadvantage: their use of and views on childcare provision

This research aims to fill a gap in the evidence base by exploring the relationship between families experience of multiple disadvantage and childcare. We know that disadvantaged families are less likely to use formal childcare; however, less research has been conducted on childcare use by multiply disadvantaged families. The research is based on further analysis of the 2008 Childcare and Early Years Survey of Parents, which was published by the Department for Children Schools and Families in July 2009. The study uses a specially devised index of multiple disadvantage to explore childcare use, parents views on local childcare provision, and how childcare and other issues influence maternal employment decisions, from the point of view of families experiencing multiple disadvantage

Extending Construal Level Theory to Distributed Teams: Perception and Evaluation of Distant Others

Building on prior research on distributed teams that has identified physical and temporal distance as impediments to collaboration and relationship development, this paper explores how and why we treat geographically distant others differently from those who are proximal. According to construal level theory, physically- or temporally-distant events or objects are more psychologically distant and are more likely to be described in terms of their more general characteristics, while views of more proximal events or objects will be more detailed and nuanced. We extend construal level theory to the distributed team context by advancing propositions about how group members perceive and evaluate distant others in contrast to proximal others. By comparing to alternative computer-mediated communication and social psychological theories that have been applied to this phenomenon, we show that construal level theory offers parsimonious explanations as well as novel predictions about how and why we perceive and evaluate distant others differently. The paper then considers theoretical, methodological, and practical implications of construal level theory for distributed teams and other virtual settings

Do Terrorist Attacks leave an identifiable ‘fingerprint’ on international tourist arrival?

This article empirically examines the postulated effects of at least a single terrorist attack on the measure of monthly international arrivals. The study uses the tsoutliers R package to detect outliers in time series data following terrorist attacks in five destinations. The contribution of this paper is found in the methodological approach that was implemented consistently across all five destinations. The findings suggest that there is no evidence to support the view that there is a consistent disturbance from a well-fitted time series (a data ‘fingerprint’) created by a terrorist attack across the five different destinations or even, in at least one case, in the same destination, at different times

Forecasting U.S. Tourist arrivals using optimal Singular Spectrum Analysis

This study examines the potential advantages of using Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) for forecasting tourism demand. To do this it examines the performance of SSA forecasts using monthly data for tourist arrivals into the United States over the period 1996 to 2012. The SSA forecasts are compared to those from a range of other forecasting approaches previously used to forecast tourism demand. These include ARIMA, exponential smoothing and neural networks. The results presented show that the SSA approach produces forecasts which perform (statistically) significantly better than the alternative methods in forecasting total tourist arrivals into the U.S. Forecasts using the SSA approach are also shown to offer a significantly better forecasting performance for arrivals into the U.S. from individual source countries. Of the alternative forecasting approaches exponential smoothing and feed-forward neural networks in particular were found to perform poorly. The key conclusion is that Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) offers significant advantages in forecasting tourist arrivals into the US and is worthy of consideration for other forecasting studies of tourism demand

Measuring price elasticities of demand for outbound tourism using competitiveness indices

The real exchange rate (REX) has long been used as the proxy for prices in tourism demand models. However it has limitations, particularly when it comes to models of outbound tourism. As an alternative, a price competitiveness index (PCI) is developed and used as a proxy for prices in a model of outbound tourism from Australia. Results obtained show that while REX is statistically insignificant and yields a price elasticity of −0.002, PCI is significant and generates a price elasticity of −1.07. The results obtained show that PCI outperforms REX as the preferred price variable in modelling outbound demand on both theoretic and empirical grounds. Furthermore, this index can be used to monitor the inter-temporal competitiveness of a destination

Seasonality of Overseas Tourism Demand in Scotland: A Regional Analysis

This paper examines patterns of seasonality in international tourism to the regions of Scotland. Quarterly numbers of overnight stays are disaggregated by trip purpose. Seasonality in vacation tourism to Scotland is shown to be defined by more than a simple rural–urban division. Overseas visiting friends and relatives (VFR) tourism is largely an urban phenomenon and is consequently less seasonal than vacation tourism. Lower seasonal concentration of VFR tourism is not uniform across the regions. Although levels of seasonal intensity of business tourism to the three principal cities of Scotland are approximately the same, there are noticeable variations over time