49 research outputs found

    Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

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    Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation: Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation

    Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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    Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

    Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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    Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

    Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

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    Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

    Whole-Genome Analyses of Enterococcus faecium Isolates with Diverse Daptomycin MICs.

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    Daptomycin (DAP) is a lipopeptide antibiotic frequently used as a last-resort antibiotic against vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VRE). However, an important limitation for DAP therapy against VRE is the emergence of resistance during therapy. Mutations in regulatory systems involved in cell envelope homeostasis are postulated to be important mediators of DAP resistance in E. faecium. Thus, in order to gain insights into the genetic bases of DAP resistance in E. faecium, we investigated the presence of changes in 43 predicted proteins previously associated with DAP resistance in enterococci and staphylococci using the genomes of 19 E. faecium with different DAP MICs (range, 3 to 48 μg/ml). Bodipy-DAP (BDP-DAP) binding to the cell membrane assays and time-kill curves (DAP alone and with ampicillin) were performed. Genetic changes involving two major pathways were identified: (i) LiaFSR, a regulatory system associated with the cell envelope stress response, and (ii) YycFGHIJ, a system involved in the regulation of cell wall homeostasis. Thr120→Ala and Trp73→Cys substitutions in LiaS and LiaR, respectively, were the most common changes identified. DAP bactericidal activity was abolished in the presence of liaFSR or yycFGHIJ mutations regardless of the DAP MIC and was restored in the presence of ampicillin, but only in representatives of the LiaFSR pathway. Reduced binding of BDP-DAP to the cell surface was the predominant finding correlating with resistance in isolates with DAP MICs above the susceptibility breakpoint. Our findings suggest that genotypic information may be crucial to predict response to DAP plus β-lactam combinations and continue to question the DAP breakpoint of 4 μg/ml. Antimicrob Agents Chemother 2014 Aug; 58(8):4527-4534

    Detection of heterogeneous vancomycin intermediate resistance in MRSA isolates from Latin America

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    Background:Vancomycin is a common first-line option for MRSA infections. The heterogeneous vancomycin-intermediateStaphylococcus aureus(hVISA) phenotype is associated with therapeutic failure. However, hVISAisolates are usually reported as vancomycin susceptible by routine susceptibility testing procedures.Objectives:To detect and characterize the hVISA phenotype in MRSA isolates causing infections in nine LatinAmerican countries.Methods:We evaluated a total of 1189 vancomycin-susceptible MRSA isolates recovered during 2006–08 and2011–14. After an initial screening of hVISA using glycopeptide-supplemented agar strategies, the detection ofhVISA was performed by Etest (GRD) and Macro-method (MET). Isolates deemed to be hVISA were subjectedto population analysis profile/AUC (PAP/AUC) and WGS for further characterization. Finally, we interrogatedalterations in predicted proteins associated with the development of the VISA phenotype in both hVISA andvancomycin-susceptibleS. aureus(VSSA) genomes.Results:A total of 39 MRSA isolates (3.3%) were classified as hVISA (1.4% and 5.6% in MRSA recovered from2006–08 and 2011–14, respectively). Most of the hVISA strains (95%) belonged to clonal complex (CC) 5. Only6/39 hVISA isolates were categorized as hVISA by PAP/AUC, with 6 other isolates close (0.87–0.89) to the cut-off(0.9). The majority of the 39 hVISA isolates exhibited the Leu-14!Ile (90%) and VraT Glu-156!Gly (90%) aminoacid substitutions in WalK. Additionally, we identified 10 substitutions present only in hVISA isolates, involvingWalK, VraS, RpoB and RpoC proteins.Conclusions:The hVISA phenotype exhibits low frequency in Latin America. Amino acid substitutions in proteinsinvolved in cell envelope homeostasis and RNA synthesis were commonly identified. Our results suggest thatEtest-based methods are an important alternative for the detection of hVISA clinical isolates

    Evaluation of an Artificial Intelligence Model for Identification of Intracranial Hemorrhage Subtypes on Computed Tomography of the Head

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    Background Intracranial hemorrhage is a critical finding on computed tomography (CT) of the head. This study compared the accuracy of an artificial intelligence (AI) model (Annalise Enterprise CTB Triage Trauma) to consensus neuroradiologist interpretations in detecting 4 hemorrhage subtypes: acute subdural/epidural hematoma, acute subarachnoid hemorrhage, intra‐axial hemorrhage, and intraventricular hemorrhage. Methods A retrospective stand‐alone performance assessment was conducted on data sets of cases of noncontrast CT of the head acquired between 2016 and 2022 at 5 hospitals in the United States for each hemorrhage subtype. The cases were obtained from patients aged ≥18 years. The positive cases were selected on the basis of the original clinical reports using natural language processing and manual confirmation. The negative cases were selected by taking the next negative case acquired from the same CT scanner after positive cases. Each case was interpreted independently by up to 3 neuroradiologists to establish consensus interpretations. Each case was then interpreted by the AI model for the presence of the relevant hemorrhage subtype. The neuroradiologists were provided with the entire CT study. The AI model separately received thin (≤1.5 mm) and thick (>1.5 and ≤5 mm) axial series as available. Results The 4 cohorts included 571 cases of acute subdural/epidural hematoma, 310 cases of acute subarachnoid hemorrhage, 926 cases of intra‐axial hemorrhage, and 199 cases of intraventricular hemorrhage. The AI model identified acute subdural/epidural hematoma with area under the curve of 0.973 (95% CI, 0.958–0.984) on thin series and 0.942 (95% CI, 0.921–0.959) on thick series; acute subarachnoid hemorrhage with area under the curve 0.993 (95% CI, 0.984–0.998) on thin series and 0.966 (95% CI, 0.945–0.983) on thick series; intraaxial hemorrhage with area under the curve of 0.969 (95% CI, 0.956–0.980) on thin series and 0.966 (95% CI, 0.953–0.976) on thick series; and intraventricular hemorrhage with area under the curve of 0.987 (95% CI, 0.969–0.997) on thin series and 0.983 (95% CI, 0.968–0.994) on thick series. Each finding had at least 1 operating point with sensitivity and specificity >80%. Conclusion The assessed AI model accurately identified intracranial hemorrhage subtypes in this CT data set. Its use could assist the clinical workflow, especially through enabling triage of abnormal CTs

    Influence of Minimum Inhibitory Concentration in Clinical Outcomes of Enterococcus faecium Bacteremia Treated With Daptomycin: Is it Time to Change the Breakpoint?

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    BACKGROUND: Daptomycin has become a front-line antibiotic for multidrug-resistant Enterococcus faecium bloodstream infections (BSIs). We previously showed that E. faecium strains with daptomycin minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) in the higher end of susceptibility frequently harbor mutations associated with daptomycin resistance. We postulate that patients with E. faecium BSIs exhibiting daptomycin MICs of 3-4 µg/mL treated with daptomycin are more likely to have worse clinical outcomes than those exhibiting daptomycin MICs ≤2 µg/mL. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study that included adult patients with E. faecium BSI for whom initial isolates, follow-up blood culture data, and daptomycin administration data were available. A central laboratory performed standardized daptomycin MIC testing for all isolates. The primary outcome was microbiologic failure, defined as clearance of bacteremia ≥4 days after the index blood culture. The secondary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: A total of 62 patients were included. Thirty-one patients were infected with isolates that exhibited daptomycin MICs of 3-4 µg/mL. Overall, 34 patients had microbiologic failure and 25 died during hospitalization. In a multivariate logistic regression model, daptomycin MICs of 3-4 µg/mL (odds ratio [OR], 4.7 [1.37-16.12]; P = .014) and immunosuppression (OR, 5.32 [1.20-23.54]; P = .028) were significantly associated with microbiologic failure. Initial daptomycin dose of ≥8 mg/kg was not significantly associated with evaluated outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Daptomycin MICs of 3-4 µg/mL in the initial E. faecium blood isolate predicted microbiological failure of daptomycin therapy, suggesting that modification in the daptomycin breakpoint for enterococci should be considered

    Parallel Epidemics of Community-Associated Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus USA300 Infection in North and South America.

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    BACKGROUND: The community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) epidemic in the United States is attributed to the spread of the USA300 clone. An epidemic of CA-MRSA closely related to USA300 has occurred in northern South America (USA300 Latin-American variant, USA300-LV). Using phylogenomic analysis, we aimed to understand the relationships between these 2 epidemics. METHODS: We sequenced the genomes of 51 MRSA clinical isolates collected between 1999 and 2012 from the United States, Colombia, Venezuela, and Ecuador. Phylogenetic analysis was used to infer the relationships and times since the divergence of the major clades. RESULTS: Phylogenetic analyses revealed 2 dominant clades that segregated by geographical region, had a putative common ancestor in 1975, and originated in 1989, in North America, and in 1985, in South America. Emergence of these parallel epidemics coincides with the independent acquisition of the arginine catabolic mobile element (ACME) in North American isolates and a novel copper and mercury resistance (COMER) mobile element in South American isolates. CONCLUSIONS: Our results reveal the existence of 2 parallel USA300 epidemics that shared a recent common ancestor. The simultaneous rapid dissemination of these 2 epidemic clades suggests the presence of shared, potentially convergent adaptations that enhance fitness and ability to spread. J Infect Dis 2015 Dec 15; 212(12):1874-82
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