Modelers' Perception of Mathematical Modeling in Epidemiology: A Web-Based Survey

International audienceBackground: Mathematical modeling in epidemiology (MME) is being used increasingly. However, there are many uncertainties in terms of definitions, uses and quality features of MME. Methodology/Principal Findings: To delineate the current status of these models, a 10-item questionnaire on MME was devised. Proposed via an anonymous internet-based survey, the questionnaire was completed by 189 scientists who had published in the domain of MME. A small minority (18%) of respondents claimed to have in mind a concise definition of MME. Some techniques were identified by the researchers as characterizing MME (e.g. Markov models), while others–at the same level of sophistication in terms of mathematics–were not (e.g. Cox regression). The researchers' opinions were also contrasted about the potential applications of MME, perceived as higly relevant for providing insight into complex mechanisms and less relevant for identifying causal factors. The quality criteria were those of good science and were not related to the size and the nature of the public health problems addressed. Conclusions/Significance: This study shows that perceptions on the nature, uses and quality criteria of MME are contrasted, even among the very community of published authors in this domain. Nevertheless, MME is an emerging discipline in epidemiology and this study underlines that it is associated with specific areas of application and methods. The development of this discipline is likely to deserve a framework providing recommendations and guidance at various steps of the studies, from design to report

Renal angiomyolipoma in patients with tuberous sclerosis complex: findings from the TuberOus SClerosis registry to increase disease Awareness

BACKGROUND: Renal angiomyolipoma occurs at a high frequency in patients with tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) and is associated with potentially life-threatening complications. Despite this frequency and severity, there are no large population-based cohort studies. Here we present baseline and follow-up data of the international TuberOus SClerosis registry to increase disease Awareness (TOSCA) with an aim to provide detailed clinical characteristics of renal angiomyolipoma among patients with TSC. METHODS: Patients of any age with a documented clinic visit for TSC within 12 months or who were newly diagnosed with TSC before participation in the registry were eligible. Data specific to renal angiomyolipoma included physical tumour characteristics (multiple, bilateral, lesion size and growing lesions), clinical signs and symptoms, and management. The effects of age, gender and genotype on the prevalence of renal angiomyolipoma were also evaluated. RESULTS: Renal angiomyolipoma was reported in 51.8% of patients at baseline, with higher frequency in female patients (57.8% versus 42.2%). The median age at diagnosis was 12 years. Prevalence of angiomyolipoma was higher in patients with TSC2 compared with TSC1 mutations (59.2% versus 33.3%, P 3 cm in 34.3% of patients. Most patients were asymptomatic (82%). Frequently reported angiomyolipoma-related symptoms included bleeding, pain, elevated blood pressure and impaired renal function. Embolization and mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors were the two most common treatment modalities. CONCLUSIONS: The TOSCA registry highlights the burden of renal angiomyolipoma in patients with TSC and shows that renal manifestations are initially asymptomatic and are influenced by gender and genotype. Furthermore, the occurrence of significant problems from angiomyolipoma in a minority of younger patients suggests that surveillance should begin in infancy or at initial diagnosis

TuberOus SClerosis registry to increAse disease awareness (TOSCA) Post-Authorisation Safety Study of Everolimus in Patients With Tuberous Sclerosis Complex

This non-interventional post-authorisation safety study (PASS) assessed the long-term safety of everolimus in patients with tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) who participated in the TuberOus SClerosis registry to increase disease Awareness (TOSCA) clinical study and received everolimus for the licensed indications in the European Union. The rate of adverse events (AEs), AEs that led to dose adjustments or treatment discontinuation, AEs of potential clinical interest, treatment-related AEs (TRAEs), serious AEs (SAEs), and deaths were documented. One hundred seventy-nine patients were included in the first 5 years of observation; 118 of 179 patients had an AE of any grade, with the most common AEs being stomatitis (7.8%) and headache (7.3%). AEs caused dose adjustments in 56 patients (31.3%) and treatment discontinuation in nine patients (5%). AEs appeared to be more frequent and severe in children. On Tanner staging, all patients displayed signs of age-appropriate sexual maturation. Twenty-two of 106 female (20.8%) patients had menstrual cycle disorders. The most frequent TRAEs were stomatitis (6.7%) and aphthous mouth ulcer (5.6%). SAEs were reported in 54 patients (30.2%); the most frequent SAE was pneumonia (>3% patients; grade 2, 1.1%, and grade 3, 2.8%). Three deaths were reported, all in patients who had discontinued everolimus for more than 28 days, and none were thought to be related to everolimus according to the treating physicians. The PASS sub-study reflects the safety and tolerability of everolimus in the management of TSC in real-world routine clinical practice

A change in the optical polarization associated with a gamma-ray flare in the blazar 3C 279

It is widely accepted that strong and variable radiation detected over all accessible energy bands in a number of active galaxies arises from a relativistic, Doppler-boosted jet pointing close to our line of sight. The size of the emitting zone and the location of this region relative to the central supermassive black hole are, however, poorly known, with estimates ranging from light-hours to a light-year or more. Here we report the coincidence of a gamma-ray flare with a dramatic change of optical polarization angle. This provides evidence for co-spatiality of optical and gamma-ray emission regions and indicates a highly ordered jet magnetic field. The results also require a non-axisymmetric structure of the emission zone, implying a curved trajectory for the emitting material within the jet, with the dissipation region located at a considerable distance from the black hole, at about 10^5 gravitational radii.Comment: Published in Nature issued on 18 February 2010. Corresponding authors: Masaaki Hayashida and Greg Madejsk

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than 90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than 90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

X-ray emission from the Sombrero galaxy: discrete sources

We present a study of discrete X-ray sources in and around the bulge-dominated, massive Sa galaxy, Sombrero (M104), based on new and archival Chandra observations with a total exposure of ~200 ks. With a detection limit of L_X = 1E37 erg/s and a field of view covering a galactocentric radius of ~30 kpc (11.5 arcminute), 383 sources are detected. Cross-correlation with Spitler et al.'s catalogue of Sombrero globular clusters (GCs) identified from HST/ACS observations reveals 41 X-rays sources in GCs, presumably low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs). We quantify the differential luminosity functions (LFs) for both the detected GC and field LMXBs, whose power-low indices (~1.1 for the GC-LF and ~1.6 for field-LF) are consistent with previous studies for elliptical galaxies. With precise sky positions of the GCs without a detected X-ray source, we further quantify, through a fluctuation analysis, the GC LF at fainter luminosities down to 1E35 erg/s. The derived index rules out a faint-end slope flatter than 1.1 at a 2 sigma significance, contrary to recent findings in several elliptical galaxies and the bulge of M31. On the other hand, the 2-6 keV unresolved emission places a tight constraint on the field LF, implying a flattened index of ~1.0 below 1E37 erg/s. We also detect 101 sources in the halo of Sombrero. The presence of these sources cannot be interpreted as galactic LMXBs whose spatial distribution empirically follows the starlight. Their number is also higher than the expected number of cosmic AGNs (52+/-11 [1 sigma]) whose surface density is constrained by deep X-ray surveys. We suggest that either the cosmic X-ray background is unusually high in the direction of Sombrero, or a distinct population of X-ray sources is present in the halo of Sombrero.Comment: 11 figures, 5 tables, ApJ in pres

Azimuthal anisotropy of charged particles at high transverse momenta in PbPb collisions at sqrt(s[NN]) = 2.76 TeV

The azimuthal anisotropy of charged particles in PbPb collisions at nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 2.76 TeV is measured with the CMS detector at the LHC over an extended transverse momentum (pt) range up to approximately 60 GeV. The data cover both the low-pt region associated with hydrodynamic flow phenomena and the high-pt region where the anisotropies may reflect the path-length dependence of parton energy loss in the created medium. The anisotropy parameter (v2) of the particles is extracted by correlating charged tracks with respect to the event-plane reconstructed by using the energy deposited in forward-angle calorimeters. For the six bins of collision centrality studied, spanning the range of 0-60% most-central events, the observed v2 values are found to first increase with pt, reaching a maximum around pt = 3 GeV, and then to gradually decrease to almost zero, with the decline persisting up to at least pt = 40 GeV over the full centrality range measured.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO