Importance measures for non-coherent-system analysis

Component importance analysis is a key part of the system reliability quantification process. It enables the weakest areas of a system to be identified and indicates modifications, which will improve the system reliability. Although a wide range of importance measures have been developed, the majority of these measures are strictly for coherent system analysis. Non-coherent systems can occur and accurate importance analysis is essential. This paper extends four commonly used measures of importance, using the noncoherent extension of Birnbaum’s measure of component reliability importance. Since both component failure and repair can contribute to system failure in a noncoherent system, both of these influences need to be considered. This paper highlights that it is crucial to choose appropriate measures to analyze component importance. First the aims of the analysis must be outlined and then the roles that component failures and repairs can play in system state deterioration can be considered. For example, the failure/repair of components in safety systems can play only a passive role in system failure, since it is usually inactive, hence measures that consider initiator importance are not appropriate to analyze the importance of these components. Measures of importance must be chosen carefully to ensure analysis is meaningful and useful conclusions can be drawn

Calculating the failure intensity of a non-coherent fault tree using the BDD technique.

This paper considers a technique for calculating the unconditional failure intensity of any given non-coherent fault tree. Conventional Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) techniques involve the evaluation of lengthy series expansions and approximations are unavoidable even for moderate sized fault trees. The Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) technique overcomes some of the shortfalls of conventional FTA techniques enabling efficient and exact quantitative analysis of both coherent and non-coherent fault trees

Birnbaum’s measure of component importance for noncoherent systems

Importance analysis of noncoherent systems is limited, and is generally inaccurate because all measures of importance that have been developed are strictly for coherent analysis. This paper considers the probabilistic measure of component importance developed by Birnbaum (1969). An extension of this measure is proposed which enables noncoherent importance analysis. As a result of the proposed extension the average number of system failures in a given interval for noncoherent systems can be calculated more efficiently. Furthermore, because Birnbaum’s measure of component importance is central to many other measures of importance; its extension should make the derivation of other measures possible

Asymptotics and local constancy of characters of p-adic groups

In this paper we study quantitative aspects of trace characters $\Theta_\pi$ of reductive $p$-adic groups when the representation $\pi$ varies. Our approach is based on the local constancy of characters and we survey some other related results. We formulate a conjecture on the behavior of $\Theta_\pi$ relative to the formal degree of $\pi$, which we are able to prove in the case where $\pi$ is a tame supercuspidal. The proof builds on J.-K.~Yu's construction and the structure of Moy-Prasad subgroups.Comment: Proceedings of Simons symposium on the trace formul

Macrolide antibiotics for bronchiectasis

Background Bronchiectasis is a chronic respiratory disease characterised by abnormal and irreversible dilatation and distortion of the smaller airways. Bacterial colonisation of the damaged airways leads to chronic cough and sputum production, often with breathlessness and further structural damage to the airways. Long-term macrolide antibiotic therapy may suppress bacterial infection and reduce inflammation, leading to fewer exacerbations, fewer symptoms, improved lung function, and improved quality of life. Further evidence is required on the efficacy of macrolides in terms of specific bacterial eradication and the extent of antibiotic resistance. Objectives To determine the impact of macrolide antibiotics in the treatment of adults and children with bronchiectasis. Search methods We identified trials from the Cochrane Airways Trials Register, which contains studies identified through multiple electronic searches and handsearches of other sources. We also searched trial registries and reference lists of primary studies. We conducted all searches on 18 January 2018. Selection criteria We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of at least four weeks' duration that compared macrolide antibiotics with placebo or no intervention for the long-term management of stable bronchiectasis in adults or children with a diagnosis of bronchiectasis by bronchography, plain film chest radiograph, or high-resolution computed tomography. We excluded studies in which participants had received continuous or high-dose antibiotics immediately before enrolment or before a diagnosis of cystic fibrosis, sarcoidosis, or allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis. Our primary outcomes were exacerbation, hospitalisation, and serious adverse events. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently screened the titles and abstracts of 103 records. We independently screened the full text of 40 study reports and included 15 trials from 30 reports. Two review authors independently extracted outcome data and assessed risk of bias for each study. We analysed dichotomous data as odds ratios (ORs) and continuous data as mean differences (MDs) or standardised mean differences (SMDs). We used standard methodological procedures as expected by Cochrane. Main results We included 14 parallel-group RCTs and one cross-over RCT with interventions lasting from 8 weeks to 24 months. Of 11 adult studies with 690 participants, six used azithromycin, four roxithromycin, and one erythromycin. Four studies with 190 children used either azithromycin, clarithromycin, erythromycin, or roxithromycin. We included nine adult studies in our comparison between macrolides and placebo and two in our comparison with no intervention. We included one study with children in our comparison between macrolides and placebo and one in our comparison with no intervention. In adults, macrolides reduced exacerbation frequency to a greater extent than placebo (OR 0.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.22 to 0.54; 341 participants; three studies; I2 = 65%; moderate-quality evidence). This translates to a number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome of 4 (95% CI 3 to 8). Data show no differences in exacerbation frequency between use of macrolides (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.08 to 1.15; 43 participants; one study; moderate-quality evidence) and no intervention. Macrolides were also associated with a significantly better quality of life compared with placebo (MD -8.90, 95% CI -13.13 to -4.67; 68 participants; one study; moderate-quality evidence). We found no evidence of a reduction in hospitalisations (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.19 to 1.62; 151 participants; two studies; I2 = 0%; low-quality evidence), in the number of participants with serious adverse events, including pneumonia, respiratory and non-respiratory infections, haemoptysis, and gastroenteritis (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.20 to 1.23; 326 participants; three studies; I2 = 0%; low-quality evidence), or in the number experiencing adverse events (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.51 to 1.35; 435 participants; five studies; I2 = 28%) in adults with macrolides compared with placebo. In children, there were no differences in exacerbation frequency (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.11 to 1.41; 89 children; one study; low-quality evidence); hospitalisations (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.07 to 1.11; 89 children; one study; low-quality evidence), serious adverse events, defined within the study as exacerbations of bronchiectasis or investigations related to bronchiectasis (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.17 to 1.05; 89 children; one study; low-quality evidence), or adverse events (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.33 to 1.83; 89 children; one study), in those receiving macrolides compared to placebo. The same study reported an increase in macrolide-resistant bacteria (OR 7.13, 95% CI 2.13 to 23.79; 89 children; one study), an increase in resistance to Streptococcus pneumoniae (OR 13.20, 95% CI 1.61 to 108.19; 89 children; one study), and an increase in resistance to Staphylococcus aureus (OR 4.16, 95% CI 1.06 to 16.32; 89 children; one study) with macrolides compared with placebo. Quality of life was not reported in the studies with children. Authors' conclusions Long-term macrolide therapy may reduce the frequency of exacerbations and improve quality of life, although supporting evidence is derived mainly from studies of azithromycin, rather than other macrolides, and predominantly among adults rather than children. However, macrolides should be used with caution, as limited data indicate an associated increase in microbial resistance. Macrolides are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular death and other serious adverse events in other populations, and available data cannot exclude a similar risk among patients with bronchiectasis

Heart Rate Recovery After Exercise Is Associated With Arrhythmic Events in Patients With Catecholaminergic Polymorphic Ventricular Tachycardia

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification in catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia remains ill defined. Heart rate recovery (HRR) immediately after exercise is regulated by autonomic reflexes, particularly vagal tone, and may be associated with symptoms and ventricular arrhythmias in patients with catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia. Our objective was to evaluate whether HRR after maximal exercise on the exercise stress test (EST) is associated with symptoms and ventricular arrhythmias. METHODS: In this retrospective observational study, we included patients ≤65 years of age with an EST without antiarrhythmic drugs who attained at least 80% of their age- and sex-predicted maximal HR. HRR in the recovery phase was calculated as the difference in heart rate (HR) at maximal exercise and at 1 minute in the recovery phase (ΔHRR1'). RESULTS: We included 187 patients (median age, 36 years; 68 [36%] symptomatic before diagnosis). Pre-EST HR and maximal HR were equal among symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. Patients who were symptomatic before diagnosis had a greater ΔHRR1' after maximal exercise (43 [interquartile range, 25-58] versus 25 [interquartile range, 19-34] beats/min; P<0.001). Corrected for age, sex, and relatedness, patients in the upper tertile for ΔHRR1' had an odds ratio of 3.4 (95% CI, 1.6-7.4) of being symptomatic before diagnosis (P<0.001). In addition, ΔHRR1' was higher in patients with complex ventricular arrhythmias at EST off antiarrhythmic drugs (33 [interquartile range, 22-48] versus 27 [interquartile range, 20-36] beats/min; P=0.01). After diagnosis, patients with a ΔHRR1' in the upper tertile of its distribution had significantly more arrhythmic events as compared with patients in the other tertiles (P=0.045). CONCLUSIONS: Catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia patients with a larger HRR following exercise are more likely to be symptomatic and have complex ventricular arrhythmias during the first EST off antiarrhythmic drug

A novel formulation of inhaled sodium cromoglicate (PA101) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and chronic cough: a randomised, double-blind, proof-of-concept, phase 2 trial

Background Cough can be a debilitating symptom of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and is difficult to treat. PA101 is a novel formulation of sodium cromoglicate delivered via a high-efficiency eFlow nebuliser that achieves significantly higher drug deposition in the lung compared with the existing formulations. We aimed to test the efficacy and safety of inhaled PA101 in patients with IPF and chronic cough and, to explore the antitussive mechanism of PA101, patients with chronic idiopathic cough (CIC) were also studied. Methods This pilot, proof-of-concept study consisted of a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in patients with IPF and chronic cough and a parallel study of similar design in patients with CIC. Participants with IPF and chronic cough recruited from seven centres in the UK and the Netherlands were randomly assigned (1:1, using a computer-generated randomisation schedule) by site staff to receive PA101 (40 mg) or matching placebo three times a day via oral inhalation for 2 weeks, followed by a 2 week washout, and then crossed over to the other arm. Study participants, investigators, study staff, and the sponsor were masked to group assignment until all participants had completed the study. The primary efficacy endpoint was change from baseline in objective daytime cough frequency (from 24 h acoustic recording, Leicester Cough Monitor). The primary efficacy analysis included all participants who received at least one dose of study drug and had at least one post-baseline efficacy measurement. Safety analysis included all those who took at least one dose of study drug. In the second cohort, participants with CIC were randomly assigned in a study across four centres with similar design and endpoints. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02412020) and the EU Clinical Trials Register (EudraCT Number 2014-004025-40) and both cohorts are closed to new participants. Findings Between Feb 13, 2015, and Feb 2, 2016, 24 participants with IPF were randomly assigned to treatment groups. 28 participants with CIC were enrolled during the same period and 27 received study treatment. In patients with IPF, PA101 reduced daytime cough frequency by 31·1% at day 14 compared with placebo; daytime cough frequency decreased from a mean 55 (SD 55) coughs per h at baseline to 39 (29) coughs per h at day 14 following treatment with PA101, versus 51 (37) coughs per h at baseline to 52 (40) cough per h following placebo treatment (ratio of least-squares [LS] means 0·67, 95% CI 0·48–0·94, p=0·0241). By contrast, no treatment benefit for PA101 was observed in the CIC cohort; mean reduction of daytime cough frequency at day 14 for PA101 adjusted for placebo was 6·2% (ratio of LS means 1·27, 0·78–2·06, p=0·31). PA101 was well tolerated in both cohorts. The incidence of adverse events was similar between PA101 and placebo treatments, most adverse events were mild in severity, and no severe adverse events or serious adverse events were reported. Interpretation This study suggests that the mechanism of cough in IPF might be disease specific. Inhaled PA101 could be a treatment option for chronic cough in patients with IPF and warrants further investigation

Physical, cognitive, and mental health impacts of COVID-19 after hospitalisation (PHOSP-COVID): a UK multicentre, prospective cohort study

Background The impact of COVID-19 on physical and mental health and employment after hospitalisation with acute disease is not well understood. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of COVID-19-related hospitalisation on health and employment, to identify factors associated with recovery, and to describe recovery phenotypes. Methods The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a multicentre, long-term follow-up study of adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital in the UK with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19, involving an assessment between 2 and 7 months after discharge, including detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical testing. Multivariable logistic regression was done for the primary outcome of patient-perceived recovery, with age, sex, ethnicity, body-mass index, comorbidities, and severity of acute illness as covariates. A post-hoc cluster analysis of outcomes for breathlessness, fatigue, mental health, cognitive impairment, and physical performance was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach. The study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN10980107). Findings We report findings for 1077 patients discharged from hospital between March 5 and Nov 30, 2020, who underwent assessment at a median of 5·9 months (IQR 4·9–6·5) after discharge. Participants had a mean age of 58 years (SD 13); 384 (36%) were female, 710 (69%) were of white ethnicity, 288 (27%) had received mechanical ventilation, and 540 (50%) had at least two comorbidities. At follow-up, only 239 (29%) of 830 participants felt fully recovered, 158 (20%) of 806 had a new disability (assessed by the Washington Group Short Set on Functioning), and 124 (19%) of 641 experienced a health-related change in occupation. Factors associated with not recovering were female sex, middle age (40–59 years), two or more comorbidities, and more severe acute illness. The magnitude of the persistent health burden was substantial but only weakly associated with the severity of acute illness. Four clusters were identified with different severities of mental and physical health impairment (n=767): very severe (131 patients, 17%), severe (159, 21%), moderate along with cognitive impairment (127, 17%), and mild (350, 46%). Of the outcomes used in the cluster analysis, all were closely related except for cognitive impairment. Three (3%) of 113 patients in the very severe cluster, nine (7%) of 129 in the severe cluster, 36 (36%) of 99 in the moderate cluster, and 114 (43%) of 267 in the mild cluster reported feeling fully recovered. Persistently elevated serum C-reactive protein was positively associated with cluster severity. Interpretation We identified factors related to not recovering after hospital admission with COVID-19 at 6 months after discharge (eg, female sex, middle age, two or more comorbidities, and more acute severe illness), and four different recovery phenotypes. The severity of physical and mental health impairments were closely related, whereas cognitive health impairments were independent. In clinical care, a proactive approach is needed across the acute severity spectrum, with interdisciplinary working, wide access to COVID-19 holistic clinical services, and the potential to stratify care. Funding UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research

Quantitative analysis of a non-coherent fault tree structure using binary decision diagrams

Quantitative analysis of a non-coherent fault tree structure using binary decision diagram