An Observational Overview of Solar Flares

We present an overview of solar flares and associated phenomena, drawing upon a wide range of observational data primarily from the RHESSI era. Following an introductory discussion and overview of the status of observational capabilities, the article is split into topical sections which deal with different areas of flare phenomena (footpoints and ribbons, coronal sources, relationship to coronal mass ejections) and their interconnections. We also discuss flare soft X-ray spectroscopy and the energetics of the process. The emphasis is to describe the observations from multiple points of view, while bearing in mind the models that link them to each other and to theory. The present theoretical and observational understanding of solar flares is far from complete, so we conclude with a brief discussion of models, and a list of missing but important observations.Comment: This is an article for a monograph on the physics of solar flares, inspired by RHESSI observations. The individual articles are to appear in Space Science Reviews (2011

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Contribuições do solo e dossel em modelo de estimativa de biomassa aérea no Bioma Pampa Soil and canopy contributions in a predictive model of aerial biomass in the Pampa Biome

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o desempenho preditivo do submodelo espectral do modelo JONG, com a inserção de variáveis espectrais que considerassem a densidade de biomassa do dossel e as contribuições dos diferentes solos subjacentes. Índices calculados pela diferença e razão simples - entre as bandas 4 e 3, 4 e 5, 4 e 7, do sensor orbital ETM+/Landsat 7 - foram sugeridos para representar a contribuição espectral dos solos subjacentes e a influência das diferenças estruturais dos dosséis. A parametrização da componente espectral foi implementada por regressão linear múltipla e, em seguida, foi comparada aos dados de biomassa obtidos em campo. As variáveis espectrais que melhor expressaram as variações da disponibilidade inicial de forragem foram a fração solo (modelo linear de mistura espectral) e a razão entre as bandas 4 e 7. A componente espectral do modelo JONG, com a nova parametrização, apresenta sensibilidade para eliminar as influências do solo e dossel na disponibilidade inicial de biomassa e facilita a interpretação dos resultados, em razão da relação entre as variáveis espectrais selecionadas.<br>The objective of this work was to evaluate the predictive performance of the JONG model's spectral submodel, with the insertion of variables considering contributions of different underlying soils and canopy densities. Indices calculated by subtraction and simple ratio between 4 and 3, 4 and 5, 4 and 7 bands, of Landsat 7/ETM+ sensor - were suggested in order to represent the spectral contribution of the different underlying soils and the influence of canopy structural differences. The spectral component parameterization was implemented by multiple linear regression and, then, it was compared to the biomass data measured in the field. Spectral variables that better describe the variations of initial biomass availability and soil spectral contributions were the soil fraction (spectral mixture linear model), and ratio between 4 and 7 bands. The spectral component of the JONG model, with the new parameterization, showed sensibility in eliminating the canopy and soil influences in the biomass initial availability and, also, improved the interpretation of results due to the relationship between selected spectral variables

Efeito da estrutura de uma pastagem hibernal sobre o comportamento de pastejo de novilhos de corte Effect of structure of a cool season pasture on grazing behaviour of beef steers

Avaliou-se o efeito de diferentes estruturas da pastagem, provocadas pela imposição de dois níveis (tratamentos) de biomassa de lâminas foliares verdes (MSFV) 350 e 600 kg/ha de matéria seca (MS) sobre o comportamento de pastejo dos animais em pastagem consorciada de aveia preta (Avena strigosa Schreb.) e azevém anual (Lolium multiflorum Lam.). As atividades dos animais foram registradas nos meses de agosto e setembro, em períodos de 24 horas consecutivas, por observadores treinados. Nas horas do dia em que o pastejo é mais intenso, foram avaliados o tempo de permanência nas estações de pastejo, a distância entre as estações alimentares e a freqüência com que os animais permaneciam em um sítio de pastejo. Houve preferência marcante por sítios localizados nos quadrantes de cada potreiro mais próximos dos bebedouros/fontes de água. O tempo de permanência dos animais nas estações de pastejo e a distância entre elas foram similares entre os dois tratamentos. O tratamento de 350 kg/ha de MS de lâminas foliares verdes não se constituiu como um nível de biomassa que afeta o tempo de permanência nas estações de pastejo.<br>The effect of different pasture structures imposed by treatments of green leaf lamina biomass (GLLB) levels of 350 and 600 kg/ha of dry matter (MS), over animals grazing behaviour was evaluated in this experiment. The pasture was oat (Avena strigosa Schreb.) and Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.). Animals activities were recorded in August and September, in 24 consecutive hours, by trained observers. In the hours of the day in which grazing were more intense, grazing stations remaining time, distance between feed stations and the frequency of remaining in each grazing site were recorded. Preference for sites located nearest to drinking points were found, in each paddock. Distances between feeding stations and time of remaining in these were similar for both treatments. The treatment with 350 kg/ha of DM of GLLB was not a biomass level that affect remaining time in grazing stations

Articulation effects in melody recognition memory

10.1080/17470218.2013.766758Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology6691774-179

Primary screening of blood donors by nat testing for HCV-RNA: development of an "in-house" method and results Triagem primária de doadores de sangue por teste de ácidos nucléicos: desenvolvimento de um método não-comercial e resultados

An "in-house" RT-PCR method was developed that allows the simultaneous detection of the RNA of the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) and an artificial RNA employed as an external control. Samples were analyzed in pools of 6-12 donations, each donation included in two pools, one horizontal and one vertical, permitting the immediate identification of a reactive donation, obviating the need for pool dismembering. The whole process took 6-8 hours per day and results were issued in parallel to serology. The method was shown to detect all six HCV genotypes and a sensitivity of 500 IU/mL was achieved (95% hit rate). Until July 2005, 139,678 donations were tested and 315 (0.23%) were found reactive for HCV-RNA. Except for five false-positives, all 310 presented the corresponding antibody as well, so the yield of NAT-only donations was zero, presenting a specificity of 99.83%. Detection of a window period donation, in the population studied, will probably demand testing of a larger number of donations. International experience is showing a rate of 1:200,000 - 1:500,000 of isolated HCV-RNA reactive donations.<br>Desenvolveu-se uma metodologia própria ("in-house") baseada em RT-PCR, que permite detectar simultaneamente o RNA do vírus HCV e de um RNA artificial empregado como controle externo. As amostras são analisadas em pools de 6-12 doações, cada doação sendo incluída em dois pools diferentes, um horizontal e um vertical, permitindo a identificação imediata de uma doação reativa, sem a necessidade de desmembrar-se um pool reativo. O processo todo consumiu de 6-8 horas diárias e os resultados foram emitidos em paralelo à sorologia. O método detectou os seis genótipos de HCV, com um limite de sensibilidade de 500 UI/mL (95% hit rate). Até julho de 2005 haviam sido testadas 139.678 doações com a detecção de 315 (0,23%) doações reativas para HCV-RNA. Exceto cinco falso-positivas, todas estas doações também apresentavam o respectivo anticorpo, portanto não se detectou nenhuma doação em janela imunológica. A especificidade foi de 99,83%. A detecção de amostra em janela imunológica, nesta população de doadores, provavelmente demandará a análise de um número maior de doações, espelhando-se na experiência internacional que tem mostrado a detecção de amostras HCV-RNA isoladas em 1:200.000 - 1:500.000 doações

Taxonomia e variação geográfica das espécies do gênero Alouatta Lacépède (Primates, Atelidae) no Brasil Taxonomy and geographic variation of species of the genus Alouatta Lacépède (Primates, Atelidae) in Brazil

Neste estudo analisou-se a variação geográfica e não-geográfica de táxons de bugios, gênero Alouatta Lacépède, 1799, que ocorrem no Brasil, com o objetivo de esclarecer a taxonomia do grupo. Para a análise morfológica, examinou-se um total de 1.286 espécimes mantidos em cinco museus brasileiros e dois norte-americanos. O material consistiu basicamente de peles, crânios e ossos hióides; esqueletos e espécimes preservados em via úmida foram escassos. O estudo se baseou na análise qualitativa dos complexos morfológicos em adição a 18 morfométicos do crânio e osso hióide. Antes das decisões taxonômicas, elaborou-se um estudo de variação geográfica, sexual, ontogenética e individual. Reconheceu-se 10 espécies de Alouatta ocorrendo no Brasil, sendo a maioria definida por caracteres discretos, porém diagnósticos. São elas: Alouatta caraya (Humboldt, 1812), A. fusca (Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire, 1812), A. clamitans Cabrera, 1940, A. belzebul (Linnaeus, 1766), A. discolor (Spix, 1823), A. ululata Elliot, 1912; A. juara (Linnaeus, 1766), A. macconnelli (Humboldt, 1812), A. puruensis Lönnberg, 1941 e A. nigerrima Lönnberg, 1941. Alouatta macconnelli e A. clamitans mostraram notável variação geográfica na coloração da pelagem e algumas variáveis morfométricas (polimorfismo) o que dificultou as definições e limites dos táxons. Alouatta belzebul apresentou variação em mosaico na coloração da pelagem. Alouatta ululata e A. puruensis foram definidas pela presença de dicromatismo sexual na pelagem, mas este caráter pode ser um artefato e necessita estudos adicionais para corroborar sua validade. Sinonimizou-se Alouatta belzebul mexianae Hagmann, 1908 com A. discolor; e a validade de Alouatta seniculus amazonica Lönnberg 1941, não foi considerada.<br>In this monograph, was studied non-geographic and geographic variation of taxa of Howling Monkeys, genus Alouatta Lacépède, 1799, occuring in Brazil, in order to solve the taxonomy of the group. For the morphological analysis, were examined a total of 1,286 specimens kept in five Brazilian and two North-American museums. The material consisted mostly of skin, skull and hyoid bone; skeleton or fluid-preserved specimens were scarse. The study was based on qualitative analysis of the morphological complexes in addition 18 morphometric characters of the skull and hyoid bone. Prior to making taxonomic decisions, was conducted a study of geographic, sexual, ontogenetic, and individual variation. Were recognized ten species of Alouatta occuring in Brazil and most of them were defined by discrete, but diagnostic characters. The species are: Alouatta caraya (Humboldt, 1812), A. fusca (Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire, 1812), A. clamitans Cabrera, 1940, A. belzebul (Linnaeus, 1766), A. discolor (Spix, 1823), A. ululata Elliot, 1912; A. juara (Linnaeus, 1766), A. macconnelli (Humboldt, 1812), A. puruensis Lönnberg, 1941, and A. nigerrima Lönnberg, 1941. Alouatta macconnelli and A. clamitans showed noticeable geographic variation on pelage coloration and some morphometric characters (polymorphism) difficulting their definition and geographic limits. Alouatta belzebul presented an accentuated geographic mosaic variation on coat coloration. Alouatta ululata and A. puruensis were defined in presenting sexual dicromism on pelage, but this character can be an artefate due the small sample and both taxa need further studies to confirm their validity. Alouatta belzebul mexianae Hagmann, 1908 was sinonimized with A. discolor; and the validity of Alouatta seniculus amazonica Lönnberg 1941 was not considered

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens