IS CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT A MESSAGE FOR ECONOMIC CRISES FOR TURKEY

This Study examines the interaction of current account (CA) deficits with other macroeconomic and demographic variables such as per capita GDP, inflation rate (INF), government consumption (Govc), electric consumption (epw), fertility rate (fert), domestic credit to private sector (Dcr), industry value added (iva), life expectancy for Turkey (lifexp), and population age 65 or above (pop) using specification methods on Least Squares Methods (OLS). The dependent variable is per capita GDP since it represents well-being of a country. Recent debates in the Turkish Congress and in the media are full of acrimony about the accretion of the CA deficits because they believe that huge current account deficit is a sign of an economic crisis in the near future. Thus, this study’s priority is to test whether the CA deficit may deteriorate well-being of Turkey and which in turn cause economic crises or not.Current account deficit, per capita GDP, inflation rate, and economic crises

Cointegration and Causality among Foreign Direct Investment in Tourism Sector, GDP, and Exchange Rate Volatility in Turkey

The Granger-causality (GC) and error correction (ECM) techniques were applied 1980-2005 data for Turkey to examine cointegration and causality among foreign direct investment(FDI) in tourism sector, overall GDP, and exchange rate volatility (EX). According to the ECM technique, the hypothesis that “no cointegration” was rejected for all three variables. The GC results detect causality runs from one-way from GDP to FDI, but the GC results detect bi-directional causality between GDP and EX suggesting that GDP and EX are jointly determined, but one way causality running from FDI to EX.Cointegration; Causality; Vector Error Correction Model; Turkey

Enerji tüketimi, altyapı yatırımları ve ekonomik büyüme: Sovyetler Birliği sonrası Orta Asya Ülkeleri

The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of energy use, employment, and capital formation on real GDP for four Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan using panel data analysis between 1990 to 2018. This study uses ARDL1 approach to investigate the long-run relationship among real GDP and energy use, employment, and capital formation. The results show an inverse relationship between real GDP and energy use, but a positive relationship real GDP and other independent variables, employment and capital formation. The Dolado-Lütkepohl Causality Test has been applied to determine the causality among the variables. Test results show that electric consumption increases real GDP. A unidirectional causality has been found between capital formation and real GDP. The results also show a unidirectional causality between capital and employment, confirming capital accumulation is a vital factor in economic growth.Bu çalışmanın amacı, dört Orta Asya ülkesi için enerji kullanımı, istihdam ve altyapı yatırımlarının reel_x000D_ Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYİH) üzerindeki etkilerini belirlemektir. Kazakistan, Kırgızistan, Tacikistan_x000D_ ve Özbekistan için 1990-2018 dönemi panel veri analizini kullanarak Otoregressive Dağıtılmış Gecikme_x000D_ modeli (ARDL) ile reel GSYİH, enerji kullanımı, altyapı yatırımları ve istihdam arasındaki uzun vadeli_x000D_ ilişkiyi araştırmak için kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, reel GSYİH ile enerji kullanımı arasında ters bir ilişki_x000D_ olduğunu, ancak istihdam ve altyapı yatırımları ile reel GSYİH arasında pozitif bir ilişki olduğunu_x000D_ göstermektedir. Değişkenler arasındaki nedenselliğin belirlenmesi için Dolado-Lütkepohl Nedensellik_x000D_ Testi uygulanmıştır. Dolado-Lütkepohl test sonuçları, elektrik tüketiminden reel GSYİH'ya doğru bir_x000D_ nedensellik olduğunu göstermektedir. Altyapı yatırımları ile reel GSYİH arasında da tek yönlü bir_x000D_ nedensellik bulunmuştur. Sonuçlar ayrıca altyapı yatırımlarının ile istihdam arasında tek yönlü bir_x000D_ nedensellik olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, bu ülkeler için altyapı yatırımlarının ülkelerin ekonomik_x000D_ büyümesi ve gelişmesinde önemli bir faktör olduğunu doğrulamaktadır.Bu çalışmanın amacı, dört Orta Asya ülkesi için enerji kullanımı, istihdam ve altyapı yatırımlarının reel Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYİH) üzerindeki etkilerini belirlemektir. Kazakistan, Kırgızistan, Tacikistan ve Özbekistan için 1990-2018 dönemi panel veri analizini kullanarak Otoregressive Dağıtılmış Gecikme modeli (ARDL) ile reel GSYİH, enerji kullanımı, altyapı yatırımları ve istihdam arasındaki uzun vadeli ilişkiyi araştırmak için kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, reel GSYİH ile enerji kullanımı arasında ters bir ilişki olduğunu, ancak istihdam ve altyapı yatırımları ile reel GSYİH arasında pozitif bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Değişkenler arasındaki nedenselliğin belirlenmesi için Dolado-Lütkepohl Nedensellik Testi uygulanmıştır. Dolado-Lütkepohl test sonuçları, elektrik tüketiminden reel GSYİH'ya doğru bir nedensellik olduğunu göstermektedir. Altyapı yatırımları ile reel GSYİH arasında da tek yönlü bir nedensellik bulunmuştur. Sonuçlar ayrıca altyapı yatırımlarının ile istihdam arasında tek yönlü bir nedensellik olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, bu ülkeler için altyapı yatırımlarının ülkelerin ekonomik büyümesi ve gelişmesinde önemli bir faktör olduğunu doğrulamaktadır

Cointegration and Causality among Foreign Direct Investment in Tourism Sector, GDP, and Exchange Rate Volatility in Turkey

The Granger-causality (GC) and error correction (ECM) techniques were applied 1980-2005 data for Turkey to examine cointegration and causality among foreign direct investment(FDI) in tourism sector, overall GDP, and exchange rate volatility (EX). According to the ECM technique, the hypothesis that “no cointegration” was rejected for all three variables. The GC results detect causality runs from one-way from GDP to FDI, but the GC results detect bi-directional causality between GDP and EX suggesting that GDP and EX are jointly determined, but one way causality running from FDI to EX

Causal relationship between internet use and economic development for selected Central Asian economies

The aim of this study is to examine the effects of information and communications technology (ICT) on economic development of several Central Asian countries. Dumitrescu and Hurlin (DH) panel causality test has been used for the relationship between ICT and economic development. The DH test results indicate that a unidirectional causality exists from GDP per capital to Inter-net use. These results suggest that an increase in GDP per capita can stimulate internet use. In addition, the cross-sectional dependence is examined using LM test of Breusch and Pagan and CD-LM and CD test of Pesaran. The results suggest that the null-hypothesis, no crosssectional dependence exists among countries, is rejected for all the tests, suggesting an economic shock in a one country may have spillover effects on other countries

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Search for stop and higgsino production using diphoton Higgs boson decays

Results are presented of a search for a "natural" supersymmetry scenario with gauge mediated symmetry breaking. It is assumed that only the supersymmetric partners of the top-quark (stop) and the Higgs boson (higgsino) are accessible. Events are examined in which there are two photons forming a Higgs boson candidate, and at least two b-quark jets. In 19.7 inverse femtobarns of proton-proton collision data at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV, recorded in the CMS experiment, no evidence of a signal is found and lower limits at the 95% confidence level are set, excluding the stop mass below 360 to 410 GeV, depending on the higgsino mass

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe