Prioritising surveillance for alien organisms transported as stowaways on ships travelling to South Africa

The global shipping network facilitates the transportation and introduction of marine and terrestrial organisms to regions where they are not native, and some of these organisms become invasive. South Africa was used as a case study to evaluate the potential for shipping to contribute to the introduction and establishment of marine and terrestrial alien species (i.e. establishment debt) and to assess how this varies across shipping routes and seasons. As a proxy for the number of species introduced (i.e. 'colonisation pressure') shipping movement data were used to determine, for each season, the number of ships that visited South African ports from foreign ports and the number of days travelled between ports. Seasonal marine and terrestrial environmental similarity between South African and foreign ports was then used to estimate the likelihood that introduced species would establish. These data were used to determine the seasonal relative contribution of shipping routes to South Africa's marine and terrestrial establishment debt. Additionally, distribution data were used to identify marine and terrestrial species that are known to be invasive elsewhere and which might be introduced to each South African port through shipping routes that have a high relative contribution to establishment debt. Shipping routes from Asian ports, especially Singapore, have a particularly high relative contribution to South Africa's establishment debt, while among South African ports, Durban has the highest risk of being invaded. There was seasonal variation in the shipping routes that have a high relative contribution to the establishment debt of the South African ports. The presented method provides a simple way to prioritise surveillance effort and our results indicate that, for South Africa, port-specific prevention strategies should be developed, a large portion of the available resources should be allocated to Durban, and seasonal variations and their consequences for prevention strategies should be explored further. (Résumé d'auteur

The role of sexually transmitted infections in male circumcision effectiveness against HIV – insights from clinical trial simulation

BACKGROUND: A landmark randomised trial of male circumcision (MC) in Orange Farm, South Africa recently showed a large and significant reduction in risk of HIV infection, reporting MC effectiveness of 61% (95% CI: 34%–77%). Additionally, two further randomised trials of MC in Kisumu, Kenya and Rakai, Uganda were recently stopped early to report 53% and 48% effectiveness, respectively. Since MC may protect against both HIV and certain sexually transmitted infections (STI), which are themselves cofactors of HIV infection, an important question is the extent to which this estimated effectiveness against HIV is mediated by the protective effect of circumcision against STI. The answer lies in the trial data if the appropriate statistical analyses can be identified to estimate the separate efficacies against HIV and STI, which combine to determine overall effectiveness. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: Focusing on the MC trial in Kisumu, we used a stochastic prevention trial simulator (1) to determine whether statistical analyses can validly estimate efficacy, (2) to determine whether MC efficacy against STI alone can produce large effectiveness against HIV and (3) to estimate the fraction of all HIV infections prevented that are attributable to efficacy against STI when both efficacies combine. RESULTS: Valid estimation of separate efficacies against HIV and STI as well as MC effectiveness is feasible with available STI and HIV trial data, under Kisumu trial conditions. Under our parameter assumptions, high overall effectiveness of MC against HIV was observed only with a high MC efficacy against HIV and was not possible on the basis of MC efficacy against STI alone. The fraction of all HIV infections prevented which were attributable to MC efficacy against STI was small, except when efficacy of MC specifically against HIV was very low. In the three MC trials which reported between 48% and 61% effectiveness (combining STI and HIV efficacies), the fraction of HIV infections prevented in circumcised males which were attributable to STI was unlikely to be more than 10% to 20%. CONCLUSION: Estimation of efficacy, attributable fraction and effectiveness leads to improved understanding of trial results, gives trial results greater external validity and is essential to determine the broader public health impact of circumcision to men and women

The Effect of Aggressive Versus Conventional Lipid-lowering Therapy on Markers of Inflammatory and Oxidative Stress

Purpose Recent trial results are in favor of aggressive lipid lowering using high dose statins in patients needing secondary prevention. It is unclear whether these effects are solely due to more extensive lipid lowering or the result of the potentially anti-inflammatory properties of statins. We aimed to determine whether aggressive compared with conventional statin therapy is more effective in reducing systemic markers of inflammation and oxidative stress. Materials and methods This was a multi-centre, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Patients with previous cardiovascular disease, who did not achieve low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels <2.6 mmol/l on conventional statin therapy (simvastatin 40 mg) were randomized to continue with simvastatin 40 mg or to receive atorvastatin 40 mg for 8 weeks and thereafter atorvastatin 80 mg for the final 8 weeks (aggressive treatment). Lipids, C-reactive protein, soluble cellular adhesion molecules, neopterin, von Willebrand Factor, and antibodies against oxidized LDL were measured at baseline and after 16 weeks. Results Lipid levels decreased significantly in the aggressive treatment group (LDL-C reduction 20.8%; P <0.001), whereas a slight increase was observed in the conventional group (LDL-C increase 3.7%; P = 0.037). A significant reduction in antibodies against oxidized LDL was seen in the aggressive (13.4%; P <0.001) and the conventional (26.8%; P <0.001) group, but there was no difference between groups (P = 0.25). Furthermore, no significant differences in change in other biomarkers was observed between both groups. Conclusions This study does not support the hypothesis that a more profound reduction in inflammatory and oxidative stress contributes to the benefits of aggressive statin therapy

The use of the multivariate Principal Response Curve (PRC) for community analysis: a case study on the effects of carbendazim on enchytraeids in Terrestrial Model Ecosystems (TME).

The effects of the fungicide carbendazim (formulation Derosal®) on enchytraeids were determined in Terrestrial Model Ecosystem (TME) tests. TMEs consisted of intact soil columns (diameter 17.5 cm; length 40 cm) taken from three grassland sites (Amsterdam (The Netherlands), Bangor (Wales, England) and Flörsheim (Germany)) or an arable site (Coimbra (Portugal)). Results for each TME site were evaluated using the multivariate Principal Response Curve (PRC) method. The resulting No-Observable Effect Concentrations (NOECs) for the community were compared with the NOECs generated by univariate statistical methods. Furthermore, the E

Challenges to adaptation: a fundamental concept for the shared socio-economic pathways and beyond

The framework for the new scenarios being developed for climate research calls for the development of a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which are meant to differ in terms of their challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. In order for the scenario process to fulfill its goals, the research and policy communities need to develop a shared understanding of these concepts. This paper focuses on challenges to adaptation. We begin by situating this new concept in the context of the rich literatures related to inter alia adaptation, vulnerability, and resilience. We argue that a proper characterization of challenges to adaptation requires a rich, exploration of the concept, which goes beyond mere description. This has a number of implications for the operationalization of the concept in the basic and extended versions of the SSPs. First, the elements comprising challenges to adaptation must include a wide range of socioeconomic and even some (non-climatic) biophysical factors. Second, careful consideration must be given to differences in these factors across scales, as well as cross-scale interactions. Third, any representation of the concept will require both quantitative and qualitative elements. The scenario framework offers the opportunity for the SSPs and full scenarios to be of greater value than has been the case in past exercises to both Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) and Impacts,Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) researchers, but this will require a renegotiation of the traditional, primarily unidirectional relationship between the two communities

FGF2 regulates melanocytes viability through the STAT3-transactivated PAX3 transcription

PAX3 (paired box 3) is known to have an important role in melanocyte development through modulation of microphthalmia-associated transcription factor transcription. Here we found that PAX3 transcriptional activity could be regulated through FGF2 (basic fibroblast growth factor)-STAT3 (signal transducer and activator of transcription 3) signaling in the pigment cells. To study its function in vivo, we have generated a transgenic mouse model expressing PAX3 driven by tyrosinase promoter in a tissue-specific fashion. These animals exhibit hyperpigmentation in the epidermis, evident in the skin color of their ears and tails. We showed that the darker skin color results from both increased melanocyte numbers and melanin synthesis. Together, our study delineated a novel pathway in the melanocyte lineage, linking FGF2-STAT3 signaling to increased PAX3 transcription. Moreover, our results suggest that this pathway might contribute to the regulation of melanocyte numbers and melanin levels, and thereby provide an alternative strategy to induce pigmentation

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration

Search for R-parity-violating supersymmetry in events with four or more leptons in sqrt(s) =7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for new phenomena in final states with four or more leptons (electrons or muons) is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of $\sqrt{s}=7\;\mathrm{TeV}$ proton-proton collisions delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in two signal regions: one that requires moderate values of missing transverse momentum and another that requires large effective mass. The results are interpreted in a simplified model of R-parity-violating supersymmetry in which a 95% CL exclusion region is set for charged wino masses up to 540 GeV. In an R-parity-violating MSUGRA/CMSSM model, values of m 1/2 up to 820 GeV are excluded for 10 < tan β < 40

Search for high-mass resonances decaying to dilepton final states in pp collisions at s√=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider is used to search for high-mass resonances decaying to an electron-positron pair or a muon-antimuon pair. The search is sensitive to heavy neutral Z′ gauge bosons, Randall-Sundrum gravitons, Z * bosons, techni-mesons, Kaluza-Klein Z/γ bosons, and bosons predicted by Torsion models. Results are presented based on an analysis of pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.9 fb−1 in the e + e − channel and 5.0 fb−1 in the μ + μ −channel. A Z ′ boson with Standard Model-like couplings is excluded at 95 % confidence level for masses below 2.22 TeV. A Randall-Sundrum graviton with coupling k/MPl=0.1 is excluded at 95 % confidence level for masses below 2.16 TeV. Limits on the other models are also presented, including Technicolor and Minimal Z′ Models

Disrupting the rhythm of depression using Mobile Cognitive Therapy for recurrent depression: randomized controlled trial design and protocol

Background: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is projected to rank second on a list of 15 major diseases in terms of burden in 2030. The major contribution of MDD to disability and health care costs is largely due to its highly recurrent nature. Accordingly, efforts to reduce the disabling effects of this chronic condition should shift to preventing recurrence, especially in patients at high risk of recurrence. Given its high prevalence and the fact that interventions are necessary during the remitted phase, new approaches are needed to prevent relapse in depression. Methods/design: The best established effective and available psychological intervention is cognitive therapy. However, it is costly and not available for most patients. Therefore, we will compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of self-management supported by online CT accompanied by SMS based tele-monitoring of depressive symptomatology, i.e. Mobile Cognitive Therapy (M-CT) versus treatment as us usual (TAU). Remitted patients (n = 268) with at least two previous depressive episodes will be recruited and randomized over (1) M-CT in addition to TAU versus (2) TAU alone, with follow-ups at 3, 12, and 24 months. Randomization will be stratified for number of previous episodes and type of treatment as usual. Primary outcome is time until relapse/recurrence over 24 months using DSM-IV-TR criteria as assessed by the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders (SCID). For the economic evaluation the balance between costs and health outcomes will be compared across strategies using a societal perspective. Discussion: Internet-based interventions might be helpful in empowering patients to become their own disease managers in this lifelong recurrent disorder. This is, as far as we are aware of, the first study that examines the (cost) effectiveness of an E-mental health program using SMS monitoring of symptoms with therapist support to prevent relapse in remitted recurrently depressed patient