Modeling the Risk of U.S. Offshore Oil & Gas Exploration-Well Drilling, Commercial Nuclear Plants, and Human Spaceflight

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has been applied in different industries for many years. Each industry and technology area presents varying challenges and priorities, and the risk models therefore need to be somewhat different. This paper compares aspects of risk modeling of offshore drilling, nuclear plant operation, and human spaceflight. Risk models in all three technology areas have certain high-level similarities: (1) they employ redundancy and diversity in their means to prevent or mitigate risk, including a mix of active and passive systems designed to respond to off-normal evolutions; (2) they are affected by human reliability; (3) their models require consideration of coupling between scenario structure and scenario phenomenology. But in examining the models in more detail, one sees important differences in methodology and emphasis. For purposes of comparison, this paper discusses aspects of a risk model of an offshore drilling operation in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, focusing on where such a development differs in important ways from models of commercial U.S. nuclear plants and models developed for human spaceflight

Forcing the archive:Involuntary migrants ‘of Ceylon’ in the Indian Ocean World of the 18–19th centuries

Asian Studie

Fall, Recovery and Characterization of the Novato L6 Chondrite Breccia

The Novato L6 chondrite fragmental breccia fell in California on 17 October 2012, and was recovered after the Cameras for Allsky Meteor Surveillance (CAMS) project determined the meteor's trajectory between 95 and 45 km altitude. The final fragmentation at 33 1 km altitude was exceptionally well documented by digital photographs. The first sample was recovered before rain hit the area. First results from a consortium study of the meteorite's characterization, cosmogenic and radiogenic nuclides, origin and conditions of the fall are presented. Some meteorites did not retain fusion crust and show evidence of spallation. Before entry, the meteoroid was 35+/-5 cm in diameter (mass 80+/-35 kg) with a cosmic ray exposure age of 9+/-1 Ma, if it had a one-stage exposure history. However, based on the cosmogenic nuclide inventory, a two-stage exposure history is more likely, with lower shielding in the last few Ma. Thermoluminescence data suggest a collision event within the last approx. 0.1 Ma. Novato likely belonged to the class of shocked L chondrites that have a common shock age of 470 Ma, based on the U,Th-He age of 460+/-220 Ma. The measured orbits of Novato, Jesenice and Innisfree are consistent with a proposed origin of these shocked L chondrites in the Gefion asteroid family, but leave open the possibility that they came to us directly from the 5:2 mean motion resonance with Jupiter. Novato experienced a stronger compaction than did other L6 chondrites of shock-stage S4. Despite this, a freshly broken surface shows a wide range of organic compounds

The emergence of reciprocally beneficial cooperation

We offer a new and robust model of the emergence and persistence of cooperation when interactions are anonymous, the population is well-mixed, and evolution selects strategies according to material payoffs. The model has a Prisoner’s Dilemma structure, but with an outside option of non-participation. The payoff to mutual cooperation is stochastic; with positive probability, it exceeds that from cheating against a cooperator. Under mild conditions, mutually beneficial cooperation occurs in equilibrium. This is possible because the non-participation option holds down the equilibrium frequency of cheating. Dynamic properties of the model are investigated theoretically and through simulations based on replicator dynamics

Gravitational Waves From Known Pulsars: Results From The Initial Detector Era

We present the results of searches for gravitational waves from a large selection of pulsars using data from the most recent science runs (S6, VSR2 and VSR4) of the initial generation of interferometric gravitational wave detectors LIGO (Laser Interferometric Gravitational-wave Observatory) and Virgo. We do not see evidence for gravitational wave emission from any of the targeted sources but produce upper limits on the emission amplitude. We highlight the results from seven young pulsars with large spin-down luminosities. We reach within a factor of five of the canonical spin-down limit for all seven of these, whilst for the Crab and Vela pulsars we further surpass their spin-down limits. We present new or updated limits for 172 other pulsars (including both young and millisecond pulsars). Now that the detectors are undergoing major upgrades, and, for completeness, we bring together all of the most up-to-date results from all pulsars searched for during the operations of the first-generation LIGO, Virgo and GEO600 detectors. This gives a total of 195 pulsars including the most recent results described in this paper.United States National Science FoundationScience and Technology Facilities Council of the United KingdomMax-Planck-SocietyState of Niedersachsen/GermanyAustralian Research CouncilInternational Science Linkages program of the Commonwealth of AustraliaCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research of IndiaIstituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare of ItalySpanish Ministerio de Economia y CompetitividadConselleria d'Economia Hisenda i Innovacio of the Govern de les Illes BalearsNetherlands Organisation for Scientific ResearchPolish Ministry of Science and Higher EducationFOCUS Programme of Foundation for Polish ScienceRoyal SocietyScottish Funding CouncilScottish Universities Physics AllianceNational Aeronautics and Space AdministrationOTKA of HungaryLyon Institute of Origins (LIO)National Research Foundation of KoreaIndustry CanadaProvince of Ontario through the Ministry of Economic Development and InnovationNational Science and Engineering Research Council CanadaCarnegie TrustLeverhulme TrustDavid and Lucile Packard FoundationResearch CorporationAlfred P. Sloan FoundationAstronom

A First Search for coincident Gravitational Waves and High Energy Neutrinos using LIGO, Virgo and ANTARES data from 2007

We present the results of the first search for gravitational wave bursts associated with high energy neutrinos. Together, these messengers could reveal new, hidden sources that are not observed by conventional photon astronomy, particularly at high energy. Our search uses neutrinos detected by the underwater neutrino telescope ANTARES in its 5 line configuration during the period January - September 2007, which coincided with the fifth and first science runs of LIGO and Virgo, respectively. The LIGO-Virgo data were analysed for candidate gravitational-wave signals coincident in time and direction with the neutrino events. No significant coincident events were observed. We place limits on the density of joint high energy neutrino - gravitational wave emission events in the local universe, and compare them with densities of merger and core-collapse events.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures, science summary page at http://www.ligo.org/science/Publication-S5LV_ANTARES/index.php. Public access area to figures, tables at https://dcc.ligo.org/cgi-bin/DocDB/ShowDocument?docid=p120000

Evolutionary genomics of a cold-adapted diatom: Fragilariopsis cylindrus

The Southern Ocean houses a diverse and productive community of organisms1, 2. Unicellular eukaryotic diatoms are the main primary producers in this environment, where photosynthesis is limited by low concentrations of dissolved iron and large seasonal fluctuations in light, temperature and the extent of sea ice3, 4, 5, 6, 7. How diatoms have adapted to this extreme environment is largely unknown. Here we present insights into the genome evolution of a cold-adapted diatom from the Southern Ocean, Fragilariopsis cylindrus8, 9, based on a comparison with temperate diatoms. We find that approximately 24.7 per cent of the diploid F. cylindrus genome consists of genetic loci with alleles that are highly divergent (15.1 megabases of the total genome size of 61.1 megabases). These divergent alleles were differentially expressed across environmental conditions, including darkness, low iron, freezing, elevated temperature and increased CO2. Alleles with the largest ratio of non-synonymous to synonymous nucleotide substitutions also show the most pronounced condition-dependent expression, suggesting a correlation between diversifying selection and allelic differentiation. Divergent alleles may be involved in adaptation to environmental fluctuations in the Southern Ocean

Correction for Johansson et al., An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics.

Correction for “An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics,” by Michael A. Johansson, Karyn M. Apfeldorf, Scott Dobson, Jason Devita, Anna L. Buczak, Benjamin Baugher, Linda J. Moniz, Thomas Bagley, Steven M. Babin, Erhan Guven, Teresa K. Yamana, Jeffrey Shaman, Terry Moschou, Nick Lothian, Aaron Lane, Grant Osborne, Gao Jiang, Logan C. Brooks, David C. Farrow, Sangwon Hyun, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Roni Rosenfeld, Justin Lessler, Nicholas G. Reich, Derek A. T. Cummings, Stephen A. Lauer, Sean M. Moore, Hannah E. Clapham, Rachel Lowe, Trevor C. Bailey, Markel García-Díez, Marilia Sá Carvalho, Xavier Rodó, Tridip Sardar, Richard Paul, Evan L. Ray, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Alexandria C. Brown, Xi Meng, Osonde Osoba, Raffaele Vardavas, David Manheim, Melinda Moore, Dhananjai M. Rao, Travis C. Porco, Sarah Ackley, Fengchen Liu, Lee Worden, Matteo Convertino, Yang Liu, Abraham Reddy, Eloy Ortiz, Jorge Rivero, Humberto Brito, Alicia Juarrero, Leah R. Johnson, Robert B. Gramacy, Jeremy M. Cohen, Erin A. Mordecai, Courtney C. Murdock, Jason R. Rohr, Sadie J. Ryan, Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, Daniel P. Weikel, Antarpreet Jutla, Rakibul Khan, Marissa Poultney, Rita R. Colwell, Brenda Rivera-García, Christopher M. Barker, Jesse E. Bell, Matthew Biggerstaff, David Swerdlow, Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Brett M. Forshey, Juli Trtanj, Jason Asher, Matt Clay, Harold S. Margolis, Andrew M. Hebbeler, Dylan George, and Jean-Paul Chretien, which was first published November 11, 2019; 10.1073/pnas.1909865116. The authors note that the affiliation for Xavier Rodó should instead appear as Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA) and Climate and Health Program, Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal). The corrected author and affiliation lines appear below. The online version has been corrected

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure