Metaheuristics For Solving Real World Employee Rostering and Shift Scheduling Problems

Optimising resources and making considerate decisions are central concerns in any responsible organisation aiming to succeed in efficiently achieving their goals. Careful use of resources can have positive outcomes in the form of fiscal savings, improved service levels, better quality products, improved awareness of diminishing returns and general output efficiency, regardless of field. Operational research techniques are advanced analytical tools used to improve managerial decision-making. There have been a variety of case studies where operational research techniques have been successfully applied to save millions of pounds. Operational research techniques have been successfully applied to a multitude of fields, including agriculture, policing, defence, conservation, air traffic control, and many more. In particular, management of resources in the form of employees is a challenging problem --- but one with the potential for huge improvements in efficiency. The problem this thesis tackles can be divided into two sub-problems; the personalised shift scheduling & employee rostering problem, and the roster pattern problem. The personalised shift scheduling & employee rostering problem involves the direct scheduling of employees to hours and days of week. This allows the creation of schedules which are tailored to individuals and allows a fine level over control over the results, but with at the cost of a large and challenging search space. The roster pattern problem instead takes existing patterns employees currently work, and uses these as a pool of potential schedules to be used. This reduces the search space but minimises the number of changes to existing employee schedules, which is preferable for personnel satisfaction. Existing research has shown that a variety of algorithms suit different problems and hybrid methods are found to typically outperform standalone ones in real-world contexts. Several algorithmic approaches for solving variations of the employee scheduling problem are considered in this thesis. Initially a VNS approach was used with a Metropolis-Hastings acceptance criterion. The second approach utilises ER&SR controlled by the EMCAC, which has only been used in the field of exam timetabling, and has not before been used within the domain of employee scheduling and rostering. ER&SR was then hybridised with our initial approach, producing ER&SR with VNS. Finally, ER&SR was hybridised into a matheuristic with Integer Programming and compared to the hybrid's individual components. A contribution of this thesis is evidence that the algorithm ER&SR has merit outside of the original sub-field of exam scheduling, and can be applied to shift scheduling and employee rostering. Further, ER&SR was hybridised and schedules produced by the hybridisations were found to be of higher quality than the standalone algorithm. In the literature review it was found that hybrid algorithms have become more popular in real-world problems in recent years, and this body of work has explored and continued this trend. Problem formulations in this thesis provide insight into creating constraints which satisfy the need for minimising employee dissatisfaction, particularly in regards to abrupt change. The research presented in this thesis has positively impacted a multinational and multibillion dollar field service operations company. This has been achieved by implementing a variety of techniques, including metaheuristics and a matheuristic, to schedule shifts and roster employees over a period of several months. This thesis showcases the research outputs by this project, and highlights the real-world impact of this research

Variable Neighbourhood Search: A Case Study for a Highly-Constrained Workforce Scheduling Problem

This paper describes a Variable Neighbourhood Search (VNS) combined with simulated annealing to tackle a highly constrained workforce scheduling problem at British Telecommunications plc (BT). A refined greedy algorithm is firstly designed to create an initial solution which meets all hard constraints and satisfies some of the soft constraints. The VNS is then used to swap out less promising combinations, continually moving towards a more optimal solution until meeting finishing requirements. The results are promising when compared to the stand- alone greedy algorithm. We believe there is scope for this to be extended in several ways, i.e. into a more complex variation of VNS to further improve results, to be applied to further data sets and workforce scheduling problem scenarios, and to have input parameters to the algorithm selectively optimized to discover what kind of improvements in efficiency and fitness are possible. There is also scope for this to be used in similar combinatorial optimization problems

UK clinical guideline for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis

The National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) has revised the UK guideline for the assessment and management of osteoporosis and the prevention of fragility fractures in postmenopausal women, and men age 50 years and older. Accredited by NICE, this guideline is relevant for all healthcare professionals involved in osteoporosis management. INTRODUCTION The UK National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) first produced a guideline on the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis in 2008, with updates in 2013 and 2017. This paper presents a major update of the guideline, the scope of which is to review the assessment and management of osteoporosis and the prevention of fragility fractures in postmenopausal women, and men age 50 years and older. METHODS Where available, systematic reviews, meta-analyses and randomised controlled trials were used to provide the evidence base. Conclusions and recommendations were systematically graded according to the strength of the available evidence. RESULTS Review of the evidence and recommendations are provided for the diagnosis of osteoporosis, fracture-risk assessment and intervention thresholds, management of vertebral fractures, non-pharmacological and pharmacological treatments, including duration and monitoring of anti-resorptive therapy, glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis, and models of care for fracture prevention. Recommendations are made for training; service leads and commissioners of healthcare; and for review criteria for audit and quality improvement. CONCLUSION The guideline, which has received accreditation from the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE), provides a comprehensive overview of the assessment and management of osteoporosis for all healthcare professionals involved in its management. This position paper has been endorsed by the International Osteoporosis Foundation and by the European Society for the Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases

A review of the ecological value of Cusuco National Park an urgent call forconservation action in a highly threatened Mesoamerican cloud forest

Cloud forests are amongst the most biologically unique, yet threatened, ecosystems in Mesoamerica. We summarize the ecological value and conservation status of a well-studied cloud forest site: Cusuco National Park (CNP), a 23,440 ha protected area in the Merendón mountains, northwest Honduras. We show CNP to have exceptional biodiversity; of 966 taxa identified to a species-level to date, 362 (37.5%) are Mesoamerican endemics, 67 are red-listed by the IUCN, and at least 49 are micro-endemics known only from the Merendón range. CNP also provides key ecosystem services including provision of drinking water and downstream flood mitigation, as well as carbon sequestration, with an estimated stock of 3.5 million megagrams of carbon in 2000. Despite its ecological importance, CNP faces multiple environmental threats and associated stresses, including deforestation (1,759 ha since 2000 equating to 7% of total forest area), poaching (7% loss of mammal relative abundance per year), amphibian declines due to chytridiomycosis (70% of species threatened or near-threatened), and climate change (a mean 2.6 °C increase in temperature and 112 mm decrease in rainfall by 2100). Despite conservation actions, including community ranger patrols, captive-breeding programmes, and ecotourism initiatives, environmental degradation of CNP continues. Further action is urgently required, including reinforcement and expansion of ranger programmes, greater stakeholder engagement, community education programmes, development of alternative livelihood projects, and legislative enforcement and prosecution. Without a thorough and rapid response to understand and mitigate illegal activities, the extirpation and extinction of species and the loss of vital ecosystem services are inevitable in the coming decades

The Cyst-Theca Relationship Of The Dinoflagellate Cyst Trinovantedinium Pallidifulvum, With Erection Of Protoperidinium Lousianensis Sp Nov And Their Phylogenetic Position Within The Conica Group

We establish the cyst-theca relationship of the dinoflagellate cyst species Trinovantedinium pallidifulvum Matsuoka 1987 based on germination experiments of specimens isolated from the Gulf of Mexico. We show that the motile stage is a new species, designated as Protoperidinium louisianensis. We also determine its phylogenetic position based on single-cell polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of a single cell germinated from the Gulf of Mexico cysts. To further refine the phylogeny, we determined the large subunit (LSU) sequence through single-cell PCR of the cyst Selenopemphix undulata isolated from Brentwood Bay (Saanich Inlet, BC, Canada). The phylogeny shows that P. louisianensis is closest to P. shanghaiense, the motile stage of T. applanatum, and is consistent with the monophyly of the genus Trinovantedinium. Selenopemphix undulata belongs to a different clade than Selenopemphix quanta (alleged cyst of P. conicum), suggesting that the genus Selenopemphix is polyphyletic. Trinovantedinium pallidifulvum is widely distributed with occurrences in the Gulf of Mexico, the North Atlantic, the northeast Pacific and southeast Asia. In addition, we illustrate the two other extant species, Trinovantedinium applanatum and Trinovantedinium variabile, and two morphotypes of Trinovantedinium. Geochemical analyses of the cyst wall of T. pallidifulvum indicate the presence of amide groups in agreement with other heterotrophic dinoflagellate species, although the cyst wall of T. pallidifulvum also includes some unique features

Pan-cancer Alterations of the MYC Oncogene and Its Proximal Network across the Cancer Genome Atlas

Although theMYConcogene has been implicated incancer, a systematic assessment of alterations ofMYC, related transcription factors, and co-regulatoryproteins, forming the proximal MYC network (PMN),across human cancers is lacking. Using computa-tional approaches, we define genomic and proteo-mic features associated with MYC and the PMNacross the 33 cancers of The Cancer Genome Atlas.Pan-cancer, 28% of all samples had at least one ofthe MYC paralogs amplified. In contrast, the MYCantagonists MGA and MNT were the most frequentlymutated or deleted members, proposing a roleas tumor suppressors.MYCalterations were mutu-ally exclusive withPIK3CA,PTEN,APC,orBRAFalterations, suggesting that MYC is a distinct onco-genic driver. Expression analysis revealed MYC-associated pathways in tumor subtypes, such asimmune response and growth factor signaling; chro-matin, translation, and DNA replication/repair wereconserved pan-cancer. This analysis reveals insightsinto MYC biology and is a reference for biomarkersand therapeutics for cancers with alterations ofMYC or the PMN

Deciphering colorectal cancer genetics through multi-omic analysis of 100,204 cases and 154,587 controls of European and east Asian ancestries

In the version of this article initially published, the author affiliations incorrectly listed “Candiolo Cancer Institute FPO-IRCCS, Candiolo (TO), Italy” as “Candiolo Cancer Institute, Candiolo, Italy.” The change has been made to the HTML and PDF versions of the article

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms