Systematic review of prediction models in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis

The natural history of relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is variable and prediction of individual prognosis challenging. The inability to reliably predict prognosis at diagnosis has important implications for informed decision making especially in relation to disease modifying therapies. We conducted a systematic review in order to collate, describe and assess the methodological quality of published prediction models in RRMS. We searched Medline, Embase and Web of Science. Two reviewers independently screened abstracts and full text for eligibility and assessed risk of bias. Studies reporting development or validation of prediction models for RRMS in adults were included. Data collection was guided by the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews (CHARMS) and applicability and methodological quality assessment by the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). 30 studies were included in the review. Applicability was assessed as high risk of concern in 27 studies. Risk of bias was assessed as high for all studies. The single most frequently included predictor was baseline EDSS (n = 11). T2 Lesion volume or number and brain atrophy were each retained in seven studies. Five studies included external validation and none included impact analysis. Although a number of prediction models for RRMS have been reported, most are at high risk of bias and lack external validation and impact analysis, restricting their application to routine clinical practice

Raptor Interactions with Wind Energy: Case Studies from Around the World

The global potential for wind power generation is vast, and the number of installations is increasing rapidly. We review case studies from around the world of the effects on raptors of wind-energy development. Collision mortality, displacement, and habitat loss have the potential to cause population-level effects, especially for species that are rare or endangered. The impact on raptors has much to do with their behavior, so careful siting of wind-energy developments to avoid areas suited to raptor breeding, foraging, or migration would reduce these effects. At established wind farms that already conflict with raptors, reduction of fatalities may be feasible by curtailment of turbines as raptors approach, and offset through mitigation of other human causes of mortality such as electrocution and poisoning, provided the relative effects can be quantified. Measurement of raptor mortality at wind farms is the subject of intense effort and study, especially where mitigation is required by law, with novel statistical approaches recently made available to improve the notoriously difficult-to-estimate mortality rates of rare and hard-to-detect species. Global standards for wind farm placement, monitoring, and effects mitigation would be a valuable contribution to raptor conservation worldwide.publishedVersio

Absence of neuronal autoantibodies in neuropsychiatric systemic lupus erythematosus

International audienceThis study aimed to characterise both neuronal autoantibodies and levels of interferon α, two proposed causative agents in neuropsychiatric systemic lupus erythematosus (NPSLE). Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and plasma from 35 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE; 15 with NPSLE) showed no antibodies against natively expressed N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors (NMDARs), or the surface of live hippocampal neurons. By comparison to controls (n = 104), patients with SLE had antibodies that bound to a peptide representing the extracellular domain of NMDARs (p < 0.0001), however, binding was retained against both rearranged peptides and no peptide (r = 0.85 and r = 0.79, respectively, p < 0.0001). In summary, neuronal-surface reactive antibodies were not detected in NPSLE. Further, while interferon α levels were higher in SLE (p < 0.0001), they lacked specificity for NPSLE. Our findings mandate a search for novel biomarkers in this condition. ANN NEUROL 2020

Clifford groups of quantum gates, BN-pairs and smooth cubic surfaces

The recent proposal (M Planat and M Kibler, Preprint 0807.3650 [quantph]) of representing Clifford quantum gates in terms of unitary reflections is revisited. In this essay, the geometry of a Clifford group G is expressed as a BN-pair, i.e. a pair of subgroups B and N that generate G, is such that intersection H = B \cap N is normal in G, the group W = N/H is a Coxeter group and two extra axioms are satisfied by the double cosets acting on B. The BN-pair used in this decomposition relies on the swap and match gates already introduced for classically simulating quantum circuits (R Jozsa and A Miyake, Preprint arXiv:0804.4050 [quant-ph]). The two- and three-qubit steps are related to the configuration with 27 lines on a smooth cubic surface.Comment: 7 pages, version to appear in Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical (fast track communications

Health state preferences are equivalent in the United States and Trinidad and Tobago

To derive preference weights in Trinidad and Tobago for Quality of Well-being Scale (QWB) health states in order to calculate QWB scores that can be compared to scores calculated from US-derived preference weights. The comparison was to determine whether the QWB scores from these different preference weights would lead to similar conclusions. We conducted in-person household interviews to elicit preferences for 65 health states using a probability sample of 235 adults from Port of Spain, Chaguanas and San Fernando, Trinidad and Tobago. A regression model with correction for within-person clustering of observations was used to obtain preference weights based on case judgments on a 0 (dead) to 10 (“perfect health”) scale. The independent variables were the components of the QWB entered as indicator (0, 1) variables. One hundred and nineteen (51%) respondents provided ratings. The respondents that provided ratings were demographically no different from those that did not. The QWB response patterns were very similar using Trinidad and US weights. The mean (SD) QWB score was 0.750 (0.130) for female respondents and 0.784 (0.125) for male respondents using Trinidad coefficients (t 2, 233&nbsp;=&nbsp;−2.05, P&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.04) and 0.747 (0.131) for female respondents and 0.783 (0.126) for male respondents using US weights (t 2, 233&nbsp;=&nbsp;−2.17, P&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.03). Overall, we found the US and Trinidad and Tobago weights were highly similar and that the choice of either set of weights would lead to similar conclusions

The Dark Side of Visionary Leadership in Strategy Implementation:Strategic Alignment, Strategic Consensus, and Commitment

Drawing from visionary leadership and strategy process research, we theorize and test the mechanism through which middle and lower-level managers’ visionary leadership affects their teams’ strategic commitment. The management literature extols the virtues of visionary leadership. In contrast to this positive stance, we reveal a dark side to visionary leadership. Our theoretical framework suggests that team manager visionary leadership harms team strategic consensus when the manager is not strategically aligned with the CEO, which in turn diminishes team commitment to the strategy. In contrast, when a team manager is strategically aligned with the CEO, team manager visionary leadership is positively related to team strategic consensus and subsequently to team strategic commitment. Data from 136 teams from two organizations support our moderated mediation model. A supplemental analysis of the content of strategic consensus and additional qualitative interviews with managers and employees in one of these organizations provide additional insights concerning the meaning of the theorized relations in practice

Different paths to the modern state in Europe: the interaction between domestic political economy and interstate competition

Theoretical work on state formation and capacity has focused mostly on early modern Europe and on the experience of western European states during this period. While a number of European states monopolized domestic tax collection and achieved gains in state capacity during the early modern era, for others revenues stagnated or even declined, and these variations motivated alternative hypotheses for determinants of fiscal and state capacity. In this study we test the basic hypotheses in the existing literature making use of the large date set we have compiled for all of the leading states across the continent. We find strong empirical support for two prevailing threads in the literature, arguing respectively that interstate wars and changes in economic structure towards an urbanized economy had positive fiscal impact. Regarding the main point of contention in the theoretical literature, whether it was representative or authoritarian political regimes that facilitated the gains in fiscal capacity, we do not find conclusive evidence that one performed better than the other. Instead, the empirical evidence we have gathered lends supports to the hypothesis that when under pressure of war, the fiscal performance of representative regimes was better in the more urbanized-commercial economies and the fiscal performance of authoritarian regimes was better in rural-agrarian economie

On behalf of a mutable future

Everyone agrees that we can’t change the past. But what about the future? Though the thought that we can change the future is familiar from popular discourse, it enjoys virtually no support from philosophers, contemporary or otherwise. In this paper, I argue that the thesis that the future is mutable has far more going for it than anyone has yet realized. The view, I hope to show, gains support from the nature of prevention, can provide a new way of responding to arguments for fatalism, can account for the utility of total knowledge of the future, and can help in providing an account of the (notoriously vexed) semantics of the English progressive. On the view in question, the future is mutable in a quite radical sense: perhaps, at one time, it was true that Obama would never be president. And then the future changed. And he became president

Search for CP violation in D+→ϕπ+ and D+s→K0Sπ+ decays

A search for CP violation in D + → ϕπ + decays is performed using data collected in 2011 by the LHCb experiment corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb−1 at a centre of mass energy of 7 TeV. The CP -violating asymmetry is measured to be (−0.04 ± 0.14 ± 0.14)% for candidates with K − K + mass within 20 MeV/c 2 of the ϕ meson mass. A search for a CP -violating asymmetry that varies across the ϕ mass region of the D + → K − K + π + Dalitz plot is also performed, and no evidence for CP violation is found. In addition, the CP asymmetry in the D+s→K0Sπ+ decay is measured to be (0.61 ± 0.83 ± 0.14)%