Union Retreat and Regional Economic Performance: the UK in the 1990s

This paper uses a panel of regional data to investigate the impact that the well-documented decline in trade unionism in the UK had on the economic performance of its regions. The analysis employed here departs from the traditional firm-level and cross-sectional analyses and looks at the economy-wide effects of unionism. Our findings provide evidence in line with theory that predicts unions to increase wages and reduce labour demand, leading to higher unemployment, but they also indicate that unionism is positively related to productivity and incomes, although in all cases the effects are non-linear. We conclude that unionism is not necessarily a burden for the economy, so long that the beneficial wage/productivity effects overbalance the negative effects on employment.trade unions, regional economic performance, panel data

Macro-determinants of UK regional unemployment and the role of employment flexibility

This paper explores the macroeconomic determinants of UK regional unemployment and their relation to the influences on unemployment exerted by the levels and types of employment flexibility in the country. Theoretically the paper draws on Keynesian and monetarist explanations of unemployment and elaborates on how the two main theoretical approaches perceive the role of price stability, accumulation, macroeconomic shocks and labour market rigidities for unemployment. Empirically, the analysis relies on a novel set of flexibility indicators and examines their impact on regional unemployment, unemployment persistence, and adjustment to economic shocks. The results provide useful insights into the explored relationships and highlight the areas and conditions under which employment flexibility helps achieve favourable employment outcomes. The implications of the findings are discussed in the concluding section.Employment flexibility; regional unemployment; persistence; NAIRU and Keynesian explanations of unemployment

Without purpose and strategy?: a spatio-functional analysis of the regional allocation of public investment in Greece

We utilise a large database on public investment at the prefecture (NUTS-3) level in Greece for the period 1976-2008 to examine the spatial and functional allocation of public investment in the country. We investigate the extent to which expenditures in different types of public investment are complementary across space and over time and examine their redistributive character. We also analyse regional specialisations and the geographical concentration of public investments and complementarily use an exploratory spatial data analysis to examine the extent of clustering of public investment and identify possible patterns in the geography of clusters and hotspots. Although our analysis uses predominantly descriptive tools, our results have confirmatory power, as they reveal a surprisingly random pattern for the spatial and functional allocation of public investment in Greece, thus raising important questions about the rationale for these allocations and, by implication, about the geographical, political and economic dynamics that underlie them. These questions obtain an additional salience in light of the administrative and fiscal reforms pursued currently by the Greek government under the pressure of the country’s sovereign debt crisis

The Role of EU Integration in Accelerating Structural Reforms in the Western Balkans: Evidence, Theory and Policy. LEQS Paper No. 140/2019 January 2019

Integration with the European Union has been an important driver of economic, political and social transformation in the Western Balkans. In recent years, however, the pace of structural reforms in the region has decelerated and the trend of economic catch-up seen in the 2000s has not resumed after the slowdown of the global economic crisis. This has coincided – at least temporally, if not causally – with a ‘temporary freeze’ in the EU’s enlargement towards the region. Against this backdrop, this paper seeks to investigate the role of EU conditionality on economic reforms and convergence in the Western Balkans. To do so, it provides original, albeit descriptive, empirical evidence showing a strong link between EU-related structural reforms (towards the Copenhagen Criteria) and economic growth; and subsequently presents an analytical model demonstrating the mechanisms of policy decisions for reforms under EU conditionality. The model assumes away sectoral interests, policy uncertainty and coordination problems, allowing the analysis to focus specifically on the tension between two objectives: the pursuit of EU accession, through the implementation of jointly agreed reforms, and the accommodation of domestic policy concerns (maintaining policy stability and public support). Our results unveil a policy dilemma for the EU, having to choose between maximising the reform effort and minimising non-compliance. Drawing on this model, we discuss extensively the policy options that the EU faces in trying to enhance the reform performance, growth trajectories and, ultimately, European perspective of the countries in the region

What do unions do at the large scale? Macro-economic evidence from a panel of OECD countries

This paper investigates the long-run relationship between trade unionism and productivity using a panel data set comprising of 18 OECD economies. Much of the existing evidence on this issue derives from micro-economic studies, with limited attention paid to long-run dynamics and economy-wide effects. Using the mean group and pooled mean group estimation techniques on cross-country panel data, the paper offers support to the "productivity-increasing face of unionism" hypothesis, revealing a positive relationship between trade union density and per worker output.Trade unions, productivity growth, panel data econometrics

An assessment of EU Cohesion Policy in the UK regions: direct effects and the dividend of targeting. LEQS Discussion Paper No. 135/2018 June 2018

With the prospective exit of the UK from the European Union, a crucial question is whether EU Structural Funds have been beneficial for the country and which aspects of Cohesion Policy should be maintained if EU funds are to be replaced. This paper addresses this question through a twofold investigation, assessing not only whether but also how EU funds have contributed to regional growth in the UK over three programming periods from 1994 to 2013. We document a significant and robust effect of Cohesion Policy in the UK, with higher proportions of Structural Funds associated to higher economic growth both on the whole and particularly in the less developed regions of the country. In addition, we show that the strategic orientation of investments also plays a distinct role for regional growth. While concentration of investments on specific pillars seems to have no direct growth effects, unless regions can rely on pre-existing competitive advantages in key development areas, we unveil clear evidence that targeting investments on specific areas of relative regional need has a significant and autonomous effect on growth. These findings have important implications for the design of regional policy interventions in Britain after Brexit

London burning, stock markets melting… time for structural change!

The events of the last few days stand as a reminder of how ‘small’ episodes, from the – always unlawful – killing of a young man in London to the – otherwise unimpressive – downgrading of the credit-worthiness of USA government bonds, can trigger huge and uncontrollable chains of events. The (anticipation of and eventual) downgrading of the USA led to a mini stock market crash that wiped out in the space of two weeks asset values equal to the annual GDP of Germany. And the shooting of Mark Duggan in London led to a British “Athens December 2008” moment that left within 72 hours hundreds of shops looted, dozens of homes burned down and, reportedly, more people dead

Institutional proximity and the size and geography of FDI spillovers: do European firms generate more favourable productivity spillovers in the EU neighbourhood?

The EU association framework provides European businesses with an entry advantage into the associated countries by facilitating production links and encouraging institutional convergence. It is believed that this has multiple beneficial effects for the associated countries, including ones related to productivity spillovers accruing to domestic firms. However, no empirical evidence exists to show that the presence of European firms produces larger productivity spillovers in recipient economies compared to firms from other world regions. We examine this question using firm-level data covering 28 transition countries over the period 2002-2009. We estimate the intra-industry productivity effects of foreign ownership and examine how these differ across regional blocks (CEE, SEE and ENP), by origin of investor (EU15 versus non-EU15), across geographical scales (national versus regional) and for different types of locations (capital-city regions versus the rest). Our results suggest that investments of EU origin play a distinctive role, helping raise domestic productivity in the associated countries unlike investments from outside the EU. However, this process operates in a spatially selective manner, potentially enhancing regional disparities and spatial imbalances. This assigns a particular responsibility for EU policy to devise interventions that will help redress these problems within its existing association framework