121 research outputs found
A last millennium perspective on North Atlantic variability: exploiting synergies between models and proxy data
The North Atlantic is a key region for decadal prediction
as it has experienced significant multi-decadal variability
over the observed period. This variability, which is
thought to be intrinsic to the region, can potentially
modulate, either by amplifying or mitigating, the
global warming signal from anthropogenic greenhouse
emissions. For example, studies suggest that the North
Atlantic contributed to the recent hiatus period between
1998 and 2012, by triggering an atmospheric response
which impacted on the eastern tropical Pacific (e.g.
McGregor et al., 2014). The subpolar North Atlantic is
also a major CO2
sink, and therefore of great importance
for the global carbon cycle (Perez et al., 2013).
One of the key players in the North Atlantic region is the
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC),
which is associated with sinking due to deep water
formation in the Labrador and Nordic Seas. The AMOC is
the primary control of the poleward heat transport in the
Atlantic region. Therefore, the AMOC is associated with
important climate impacts, and plays an active role in
various feedback mechanisms with, for example, sea ice
(Mahajan et al., 2011) and the atmospheric circulation
(Gastineau and Frankignoul, 2012). The AMOC has
exhibited abrupt variations in the past (e.g. the last glacial
period, Rahmstorf, 2002) and could experience a major
slowdown in the future due to the combined effect of
surface warming and Greenland ice sheet melting on deep
water formation (Bakker et al., 2016). The possibility
of such a shutdown has stimulated considerable
international efforts to observe and reconstruct the
past AMOC changes. Only by understanding its natural
variability will we be able to detect and anticipate an
anthropogenic impact on the AMOC.
Decadal modulations are also found in other large-scale
modes of climate variability, such as the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) (Stephenson et al., 2000), the Subpolar
Gyre strength (SPG) (Häkkinen and Rhines, 2004) and
the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) (Enfield et al.,
2001), which have all been linked with widespread climate
impacts over the surrounding continents. Modelling
studies suggest that all these modes interact with the
AMOC (Gastineau and Frankignoul, 2012; Hátún et al.,
2005; Knight et al., 2005) but the exact interrelationships
are complex and remain to be disentangled. Also to be
determined are the underlying mechanisms responsible
for the decadal and centennial AMOC modulations, with
different climate models showing different key drivers
(Menary et al., 2015a). Similarly, the exact impact of the
natural external forcings (e.g. volcanic aerosols, solar
irradiance) on the variability of these different largescale
climate modes still remains unclear
Climate change impacts on ocean circulation relevant to the UK and Ireland
What is happening
• Observations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or
Gulf Stream System since the 1980s have shown a strengthening in
the 1990s and a weakening in the 2000s, with no clear overall trend.
• Shifts in North-east Atlantic circulation, leading to a greater
influence of warmer subtropical-origin waters which can impact
marine ecosystems and economically important fish species such as
mackerel. The changing subpolar ocean circulation is also having
impacts on the food supply for deep-sea ecosystems.
• The subpolar gyre recorded its freshest values on record in the
2010s. Ongoing freshwater build-up in the rapidly changing Arctic
Ocean may exacerbate this freshening.
What could happen
• Projections from climate models consistently project a weakening of
the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation due to
anthropogenic climate change.
• Warming of Atlantic waters is expected to reduce the depth of mixed
layers and limit nutrient supply to surface layers
First narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves from known pulsars in advanced detector data
Spinning neutron stars asymmetric with respect to their rotation axis are potential sources of
continuous gravitational waves for ground-based interferometric detectors. In the case of known pulsars a
fully coherent search, based on matched filtering, which uses the position and rotational parameters
obtained from electromagnetic observations, can be carried out. Matched filtering maximizes the signalto-
noise (SNR) ratio, but a large sensitivity loss is expected in case of even a very small mismatch
between the assumed and the true signal parameters. For this reason, narrow-band analysis methods have
been developed, allowing a fully coherent search for gravitational waves from known pulsars over a
fraction of a hertz and several spin-down values. In this paper we describe a narrow-band search of
11 pulsars using data from Advanced LIGO’s first observing run. Although we have found several initial
outliers, further studies show no significant evidence for the presence of a gravitational wave signal.
Finally, we have placed upper limits on the signal strain amplitude lower than the spin-down limit for 5 of
the 11 targets over the bands searched; in the case of J1813-1749 the spin-down limit has been beaten for
the first time. For an additional 3 targets, the median upper limit across the search bands is below the
spin-down limit. This is the most sensitive narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves carried
out so far
Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation
Possible changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) provide a key source of uncertainty regarding future climate change. Maps of temperature trends over the twentieth century show a conspicuous region of cooling in the northern Atlantic. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that this cooling may be due to a reduction in the AMOC over the twentieth century and particularly after 1970. Since 1990 the AMOC seems to have partly recovered. This time evolution is consistently suggested by an AMOC index based on sea surface temperatures, by the hemispheric temperature difference, by coral-based proxies and by oceanic measurements. We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown. Using a multi-proxy temperature reconstruction for the AMOC index suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (p > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC
First measurement of the Hubble Constant from a Dark Standard Siren using the Dark Energy Survey Galaxies and the LIGO/Virgo Binary–Black-hole Merger GW170814
International audienceWe present a multi-messenger measurement of the Hubble constant H 0 using the binary–black-hole merger GW170814 as a standard siren, combined with a photometric redshift catalog from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The luminosity distance is obtained from the gravitational wave signal detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO)/Virgo Collaboration (LVC) on 2017 August 14, and the redshift information is provided by the DES Year 3 data. Black hole mergers such as GW170814 are expected to lack bright electromagnetic emission to uniquely identify their host galaxies and build an object-by-object Hubble diagram. However, they are suitable for a statistical measurement, provided that a galaxy catalog of adequate depth and redshift completion is available. Here we present the first Hubble parameter measurement using a black hole merger. Our analysis results in , which is consistent with both SN Ia and cosmic microwave background measurements of the Hubble constant. The quoted 68% credible region comprises 60% of the uniform prior range [20, 140] km s−1 Mpc−1, and it depends on the assumed prior range. If we take a broader prior of [10, 220] km s−1 Mpc−1, we find (57% of the prior range). Although a weak constraint on the Hubble constant from a single event is expected using the dark siren method, a multifold increase in the LVC event rate is anticipated in the coming years and combinations of many sirens will lead to improved constraints on H 0
Erratum: “Searches for Gravitational Waves from Known Pulsars at Two Harmonics in 2015–2017 LIGO Data” (2019, ApJ, 879, 10)
Due to an error at the publisher, in the published article the number of pulsars presented in the paper is incorrect in multiple places throughout the text. Specifically, "222" pulsars should be "221." Additionally, the number of pulsars for which we have EM observations that fully overlap with O1 and O2 changes from "168" to "167." Elsewhere, in the machine-readable table of Table 1 and in Table 2, the row corresponding to pulsar J0952-0607 should be excised as well. Finally, in the caption for Table 2 the number of pulsars changes from "188" to "187.
Searches for gravitational waves from known pulsars at two harmonics in 2015-2017 LIGO data
International audienceWe present a search for gravitational waves from 222 pulsars with rotation frequencies ≳10 Hz. We use advanced LIGO data from its first and second observing runs spanning 2015–2017, which provides the highest-sensitivity gravitational-wave data so far obtained. In this search we target emission from both the l = m = 2 mass quadrupole mode, with a frequency at twice that of the pulsar’s rotation, and the l = 2, m = 1 mode, with a frequency at the pulsar rotation frequency. The search finds no evidence for gravitational-wave emission from any pulsar at either frequency. For the l = m = 2 mode search, we provide updated upper limits on the gravitational-wave amplitude, mass quadrupole moment, and fiducial ellipticity for 167 pulsars, and the first such limits for a further 55. For 20 young pulsars these results give limits that are below those inferred from the pulsars’ spin-down. For the Crab and Vela pulsars our results constrain gravitational-wave emission to account for less than 0.017% and 0.18% of the spin-down luminosity, respectively. For the recycled millisecond pulsar J0711−6830 our limits are only a factor of 1.3 above the spin-down limit, assuming the canonical value of 1038 kg m2 for the star’s moment of inertia, and imply a gravitational-wave-derived upper limit on the star’s ellipticity of 1.2 × 10−8. We also place new limits on the emission amplitude at the rotation frequency of the pulsars
GWTC-1: A Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog of Compact Binary Mergers Observed by LIGO and Virgo during the First and Second Observing Runs
We present the results from three gravitational-wave searches for coalescing compact binaries with component masses above 1 M⊙ during the first and second observing runs of the advanced gravitational-wave detector network. During the first observing run (O1), from September 12, 2015 to January 19, 2016, gravitational waves from three binary black hole mergers were detected. The second observing run (O2), which ran from November 30, 2016 to August 25, 2017, saw the first detection of gravitational waves from a binary neutron star inspiral, in addition to the observation of gravitational waves from a total of seven binary black hole mergers, four of which we report here for the first time: GW170729, GW170809, GW170818, and GW170823. For all significant gravitational-wave events, we provide estimates of the source properties. The detected binary black holes have total masses between 18.6−0.7+3.2 M⊙ and 84.4−11.1+15.8 M⊙ and range in distance between 320−110+120 and 2840−1360+1400 Mpc. No neutron star-black hole mergers were detected. In addition to highly significant gravitational-wave events, we also provide a list of marginal event candidates with an estimated false-alarm rate less than 1 per 30 days. From these results over the first two observing runs, which include approximately one gravitational-wave detection per 15 days of data searched, we infer merger rates at the 90% confidence intervals of 110−3840 Gpc−3 y−1 for binary neutron stars and 9.7−101 Gpc−3 y−1 for binary black holes assuming fixed population distributions and determine a neutron star-black hole merger rate 90% upper limit of 610 Gpc−3 y−1
Properties of the Binary Neutron Star Merger GW170817
On August 17, 2017, the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave detectors observed a low-mass compact binary inspiral. The initial sky localization of the source of the gravitational-wave signal, GW170817, allowed electromagnetic observatories to identify NGC 4993 as the host galaxy. In this work, we improve initial estimates of the binary's properties, including component masses, spins, and tidal parameters, using the known source location, improved modeling, and recalibrated Virgo data. We extend the range of gravitational-wave frequencies considered down to 23 Hz, compared to 30 Hz in the initial analysis. We also compare results inferred using several signal models, which are more accurate and incorporate additional physical effects as compared to the initial analysis. We improve the localization of the gravitational-wave source to a 90% credible region of 16 deg2. We find tighter constraints on the masses, spins, and tidal parameters, and continue to find no evidence for nonzero component spins. The component masses are inferred to lie between 1.00 and 1.89 M⊙ when allowing for large component spins, and to lie between 1.16 and 1.60 M⊙ (with a total mass 2.73−0.01+0.04 M⊙) when the spins are restricted to be within the range observed in Galactic binary neutron stars. Using a precessing model and allowing for large component spins, we constrain the dimensionless spins of the components to be less than 0.50 for the primary and 0.61 for the secondary. Under minimal assumptions about the nature of the compact objects, our constraints for the tidal deformability parameter Λ are (0,630) when we allow for large component spins, and 300−230+420 (using a 90% highest posterior density interval) when restricting the magnitude of the component spins, ruling out several equation-of-state models at the 90% credible level. Finally, with LIGO and GEO600 data, we use a Bayesian analysis to place upper limits on the amplitude and spectral energy density of a possible postmerger signal
GW190425 : observation of a compact binary coalescence with total mass ~ 3.4 M o
On 2019 April 25, the LIGO Livingston detector observed a compact binary coalescence with signal-to-noise ratio 12.9. The Virgo detector was also taking data that did not contribute to detection due to a low signal-to-noise ratio, but were used for subsequent parameter estimation. The 90% credible intervals for the component masses range from to if we restrict the dimensionless component spin magnitudes to be smaller than 0.05). These mass parameters are consistent with the individual binary components being neutron stars. However, both the source-frame chirp mass and the total mass of this system are significantly larger than those of any other known binary neutron star (BNS) system. The possibility that one or both binary components of the system are black holes cannot be ruled out from gravitational-wave data. We discuss possible origins of the system based on its inconsistency with the known Galactic BNS population. Under the assumption that the signal was produced by a BNS coalescence, the local rate of neutron star mergers is updated to 250-2810
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