Sudden stratospheric warmings seen in MINOS deep underground muon data

The rate of high energy cosmic ray muons as measured underground is shown to be strongly correlated with upper-air temperatures during short-term atmospheric (10-day) events. The effects are seen by correlating data from the MINOS underground detector and temperatures from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts during the winter periods from 2003-2007. This effect provides an independent technique for the measurement of meteorological conditions and presents a unique opportunity to measure both short and long-term changes in this important part of the atmosphere. Citation: Osprey, S., et al. (2009), Sudden stratospheric warmings seen in MINOS deep underground muon data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05809, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036359

Global distributions of overlapping gravity waves in HIRDLS data

Data from the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) instrument on NASA's Aura satellite are used to investigate the relative numerical variability of observed gravity wave packets as a function of both horizontal and vertical wavenumber, with support from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on TIMED. We see that these distributions are dominated by large vertical and small horizontal wavenumbers, and have a similar spectral form at all heights and latitudes, albeit with important differences. By dividing our observed wavenumber distribution into particular subspecies of waves, we demonstrate that these distributions exhibit significant temporal and spatial variability, and that small-scale variability associated with particular geophysical phenomena such as the monsoon arises due to variations in specific parts of the observed spectrum. We further show that the well-known Andes/Antarctic Peninsula gravity wave hotspot during southern winter, home to some of the largest wave fluxes on the planet, is made up of relatively few waves, but with a significantly increased flux per wave due to their spectral characteristics. These results have implications for the modelling of gravity wave phenomena

Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes.

This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022022A future decline in solar activity would not offset projected global warmingA future decline in solar activity could have larger regional effects in winterTop-down mechanism contributes to Northern Hemisphere regional response.LJG and ACM were supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science's Climate Directorate. ACM also acknowledges support from the ERC ACCI project no. 267760 and an AXA Postdoctoral Fellowship. SI and AAS were supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). LJG and JAA were supported by a grant from the National Environmental Research Council

Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5–1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0–4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing

HIRDLS Science Meeting Oxford (20 Sep 2006) Presentations

Selection of presentations given at the HIRDLS Science Meeting Oxford on the 20th September 2006

Impacts of stratospheric sulfate geoengineering on global solar photovoltaic and concentrating solar power resource

In recent years, the idea of geoengineering, artificially modifying the climate to reduce global temperatures, has received increasing attention due to the lack of progress in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Stratospheric sulfate injection (SSI) is a geoengineering method proposed to reduce planetary warming by reflecting a proportion of solar radiation back into space that would otherwise warm the surface and lower atmosphere. We analyze results from the HadGEM2-CCS climate model with stratospheric emissions of 10 Tg yr-1 of SO2, designed to offset global temperature rise by around 1°C. A reduction in concentrating solar power (CSP) output of 5.9% on average over land is shown under SSI compared to a baseline future climate change scenario (RCP4.5) due to a decrease in direct radiation. Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy is generally less affected as it can use diffuse radiation, which increases under SSI, at the expense of direct radiation. Our results from HadGEM2-CCS are compared to the GEOSCCM chemistry-climate model from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), with 5 Tg yr-1 emission of SO2. In many regions, the differences predicted in solar energy output between the SSI and RCP4.5 simulations are robust, as the sign of the changes for both the HadGEM2-CCS and GEOSCCM models agree. Furthermore, the sign of the total and direct annual mean radiation changes evaluated by HadGEM2-CCS agree with the sign of the multi-model mean changes of an ensemble of GeoMIP models over the majority of the world

Evaluation of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in global climate models for the SPARC QBO‐initiative

The Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) is a model intercomparison programme that specifically targets simulation of the QBO in current global climate models. Eleven of the models or model versions that participated in a QBOi intercomparison study have upper boundaries in or above the mesosphere and therefore simulate the region where the stratopause semiannual oscillation (SAO) is the dominant mode of variability of zonal winds in the tropical upper stratosphere. Comparisons of the SAO simulations in these models are presented here. These show that the model simulations of the amplitudes and phases of the SAO in zonal‐mean zonal wind near the stratopause agree well with the information derived from available observations. However, most of the models simulate time‐average zonal winds that are more westward than determined from observations, in some cases by several tens of m·s$^{–1}$. Validation of wave activity in the models is hampered by the limited observations of tropical waves in the upper stratosphere but suggests a deficit of eastward forcing either by large‐scale waves, such as Kelvin waves, or by gravity waves

Comparison between non‐orographic gravity‐wave parameterizations used in QBOi models and Strateole 2 constant‐level balloons

Gravity‐wave (GW) parameterizations from 12 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) are compared with Strateole 2 balloon observations made in the tropical lower stratosphere from November 2019–February 2020 (phase 1) and from October 2021–January 2022 (phase 2). The parameterizations employ the three standard techniques used in GCMs to represent subgrid‐scale non‐orographic GWs, namely the two globally spectral techniques developed by Warner and McIntyre (1999) and Hines (1997), as well as the “multiwaves” approaches following the work of Lindzen (1981). The input meteorological fields necessary to run the parameterizations offline are extracted from the ERA5 reanalysis and correspond to the meteorological conditions found underneath the balloons. In general, there is fair agreement between amplitudes derived from measurements for waves with periods less than 1 $$1$$ h and parameterizations. The correlation between the daily observations and the corresponding results of the parameterization can be around 0.4, which is 99 % $$99\%$$ significant, since 1200 days of observations are used. Given that the parameterizations have only been tuned to produce a quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) in the models, the 0.4 correlation coefficient of the GW momentum fluxes is surprisingly good. These correlations nevertheless vary between schemes and depend little on their formulation (globally spectral versus multiwaves for instance). We therefore attribute these correlations to dynamical filtering, which all schemes take into account, whereas only a few relate the gravity waves to their sources. Statistically significant correlations are mostly found for eastward‐propagating waves, which may be due to the fact that during both Strateole 2 phases the QBO is easterly at the altitude of the balloon flights. We also found that the probability density functions (pdfs) of the momentum fluxes are represented better in spectral schemes with constant sources than in schemes (“spectral” or “multiwaves”) that relate GWs only to their convective sources

Multimodel climate and variability of the stratosphere

The stratospheric climate and variability from simulations of sixteen chemistry‐climate models is evaluated. On average the polar night jet is well reproduced though its variability is less well reproduced with a large spread between models. Polar temperature biases are less than 5 K except in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) lower stratosphere in spring. The accumulated area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation is accurately reproduced for the Antarctic but underestimated for the Arctic. The shape and position of the polar vortex is well simulated, as is the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. There is a wide model spread in the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warnings (SSWs), late biases in the breakup of the SH vortex, and a weak annual cycle in the zonal wind in the tropical upper stratosphere. Quantitatively, “metrics” indicate a wide spread in model performance for most diagnostics with systematic biases in many, and poorer performance in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Correlations were found in the SH between errors in the final warming, polar temperatures, the leading mode of variability, and jet strength, and in the NH between errors in polar temperatures, frequency of major SSWs, and jet strength. Models with a stronger QBO have stronger tropical upwelling and a colder NH vortex. Both the qualitative and quantitative analysis indicate a number of common and long‐standing model problems, particularly related to the simulation of the SH and stratospheric variability

Observation of muon intensity variations by season with the MINOS near detector

A sample of 1.53×109 cosmic-ray-induced single muon events has been recorded at 225 m water equivalent using the MINOS near detector. The underground muon rate is observed to be highly correlated with the effective atmospheric temperature. The coefficient αT, relating the change in the muon rate to the change in the vertical effective temperature, is determined to be 0.428±0.003(stat.)±0.059(syst.). An alternative description is provided by the weighted effective temperature, introduced to account for the differences in the temperature profile and muon flux as a function of zenith angle. Using the latter estimation of temperature, the coefficient is determined to be 0.352±0.003(stat.)±0.046(syst.)