Forest Wood Consumption and Wood Shortage in Pakistan: Estimation and Projection through System Dynamics

Consumption rates of major forest products such as timber and firewood, place significant strain on wood stock and forest area in Pakistan. With the country's rising population, the consumption of these two major products is increasing because of the growing energy demand, and no alternative products are likely to replace wood consumption in the near future. We apply system dynamics modelling to an analysis of the forestry sector in Pakistan for novel insights into the drivers and future trajectories of wood consumption. The present research is based on time series macroeconomic data from 1990-2010 and projections to 2040 of wood supply, forest area, population growth, wood extraction, wood imports and different uses of wood in the country. The study reveals that there is no significant increase in area under forest, while consumption of firewood and timber has increased. The consumption of firewood is greater than timber consumption in Pakistan, both in percentage share and in total volume of wood consumption. The sustainable supply of wood is less than wood consumption, and with population growth this gap is increasing; wood supply from agricultural lands is a viable option to fill the gap. Keywords: Wood Consumption, Sustainable Wood Supply, Projected Wood Shortag

Understanding socio-technological systems change through an indigenous community-based participatory framework

Moving toward a sustainable global society requires substantial change in both social and technological systems. This sustainability is dependent not only on addressing the environmental impacts of current social and technological systems, but also on addressing the social, economic and political harms that continue to be perpetuated through systematic forms of oppression and the exclusion of Black, Indigenous, and people of color (BIPOC) communities. To adequately identify and address these harms, we argue that scientists, practitioners, and communities need a transdis-ciplinary framework that integrates multiple types of knowledge, in particular, Indigenous and experiential knowledge. Indigenous knowledge systems embrace relationality and reciprocity rather than extraction and oppression, and experiential knowledge grounds transition priorities in lived experiences rather than expert assessments. Here, we demonstrate how an Indigenous, experiential, and community-based participatory framework for understanding and advancing socio-technolog-ical system transitions can facilitate the co-design and co-development of community-owned energy systems

Try, try again: Lessons learned from success and failure in participatory modeling

Participatory Modeling (PM) is becoming increasingly common in environmental planning and conservation, due in part to advances in cyberinfrastructure as well as to greater recognition of the importance of engaging a diverse array of stakeholders in decision making. We provide lessons learned, based on over 200 years of the authors' cumulative and diverse experience, about PM processes. These include successful and, perhaps more importantly, not-so-successful trials. Our collective interdisciplinary background has supported the development, testing, and evaluation of a rich range of collaborative modeling approaches. We share here what we have learned as a community of participatory modelers, within three categories of reflection: a) lessons learned about participatory modelers; b) lessons learned about the context of collaboration; and c) lessons learned about the PM process. First, successful PM teams encompass a variety of skills beyond modeling expertise. Skills include: effective relationship-building, openness to learn from local experts, awareness of personal motivations and biases, and ability to translate discussions into models and to assess success. Second, the context for collaboration necessitates a culturally appropriate process for knowledge generation and use, for involvement of community co-leads, and for understanding group power dynamics that might influence how people from different backgrounds interact. Finally, knowing when to use PM and when not to, managing expectations, and effectively and equitably addressing conflicts is essential. Managing the participation process in PM is as important as managing the model building process. We recommend that PM teams consider what skills are present within a team, while ensuring inclusive creative space for collaborative exploration and learning supported by simple yet relevant models. With a realistic view of what it entails, PM can be a powerful approach that builds collective knowledge and social capital, thus helping communities to take charge of their future and address complex social and environmental problems

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication

Climate change adaptation in the Nigerian agricultural sector

West Africa is expected to suffer yield and production losses of staple crops under climate change, with more severe yield reductions occurring in the period between 2030 and 2050 (Ittersum et al., 2016). In addition, extreme events, including droughts and floods, are expected to become more frequent under climate change, also potentially affecting yields (Abiodun, Lawal, Salami, & Abatan, 2013). Internal displacement and natural resource conflicts are another expected climate impact, as are pest and disease outbreaks (Gregory, Johnson, Newton, & Ingram, 2009; Obioha, 2008). Given these potentially serious climate impacts, a team comprising researchers from Michigan State University and Nigerian partner universities conducted studies intended to inform Nigerian agricultural policy around climate adaptation. This brief presents a summary of findings from 4 of these studies conducted between 2016 and 2019.Non-PRIFPRI2; DCA; Feed the Future Initiative; Feed the Future Innovation Laboratory for Food Security Policy (FSP)DSG

The System Dynamics of Forest Cover in the Developing World: Researcher Versus Community Perspectives

Efforts to increase forest cover in the developing world will only succeed if the root causes of deforestation are addressed. Researchers designing reforestation initiatives tend to emphasize macro-level drivers of deforestation, about which they have extensive data and knowledge. On the other hand, local people have contextually based knowledge of forest cover dynamics in their region—about which external researchers may be largely ignorant. This type of perception gap between researchers and community members has led to many failed or insufficiently implemented projects. An emerging tool—group model-building with system dynamics—shows promise in its ability to integrate different perspectives on a complex problem such as forest cover loss. In this study, I use system dynamics modeling methodology to compare causal loop diagrams of forest cover dynamics on Negros Island, Philippines generated by researchers working for the World Wildlife Fund with causal loop diagrams generated by community members in upland Negros. The diagrams were significantly different, with very few variables in common, but both illuminate critical aspects of the deforestation problem on the island. I conclude that reforestation initiatives in the Philippines would benefit from incorporating all relevant information into a single, coherent model.deforestation; development; group model-building; reforestation; Philippines

System Dynamics Modelling of Maize Production under Future Climate Scenarios in Kaduna, Nigeria

Nigeria is the second largest producer of maize on the African continent with more than 5 million hectares of land under maize production and an annual area and yield growth rate of 4.1 % and 2.7% respectively (Beyene et al., 2016). However, maize yields in sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria, remain low compared with global averages. Yields may be further impacted by shifts in temperature and rainfall under climate change in the coming several decades, given that most maize in Nigeria is rainfed. We used a system dynamics model combined with stakeholder input to simulate maize production in Kaduna state, Nigeria, under a range of scenarios including 1) adoption of hybrid early maturing maize varieties; 2) optimal fertilizer use; and 3) shifts in climate regimes. System dynamics modeling is a technique which allows researchers to investigate the future state of a complex system with both social and ecological components. Our goal with this model was not to replicate the accuracy of yield prediction generated by data-intensive agronomic models, but to build a tool for supporting policy decisions in the region while incorporating socio-ecological dynamics and stakeholder insights. Overall, the model suggests that agricultural policies with respect to maize production should focus on developing and disseminating knowledge and accessibility of early maturing /drought tolerant maize varieties alongside efforts to promote more efficient integrated fertilizer management strategies (such as mixed organic and conventional fertilizers) which increase the agronomic use efficiency of EM hybrid maize varieties. However, even under these optimal efforts to improve maize production in the face of climate change, maize productivity is expected to first rise, and then decline by mid-century under expected precipitation and temperature shifts, demonstrating an inverted U-shaped curve. In the context of a growing population, and therefore a growing demand for food, in Kaduna and in Nigeria more broadly, the results of this study imply the need for a diversification of the agricultural sector towards staple crops that will be less climate-sensitive than maize. This is consistent with other recent agronomic modeling work in sub-Saharan Africa which has found that climate change could severely impact staple food crop production, even under scenarios of technological advancement and fertilizer use (Ittersum et al. 2016; Sulser et al. 2014)

Exploring Maize Production in Nigeria Under Climate Change Using System Dynamics

• Under the baseline model run (without climate change), net production of maize in Nigeria (that is, production – national consumption) is expected to increase approximately three-fold by 2064. • Model output is consistent with meta modeling studies that demonstrate potential yield losses of up to 50% by mid-century in West Africa under climate change, with the median yield loss at 11%

TOWARDS A SYSTEMIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

The impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in Nigeria going forward are expected to be severe, but so far there is a dearth of systemic analysis of how these impacts would develop over time, or how they would interact with other drivers impacting Nigerian agriculture. Such a systemic analysis could contribute to adaptation efforts by identifying policy mechanisms that serve as system ‘levers’ to effect change given the considerable uncertainty associated with both the socio-economic and ecological aspects of climate change. This study begins to provide a systematic analysis of the impact of climate change on agricultural production in Nigeria using a participatory research method. We convened a workshop of key stakeholders with diverse and in-depth knowledge of Nigerian agriculture in Ibadan, Nigeria, in June, 2016. Using a causal loop diagramming (CLD) technique, we grouped these stakeholders by region and led them through an exercise in which they drew diagrams depicting the barriers to, and opportunities for, Nigerian agricultural development