Supermassive Black Hole Binaries: The Search Continues

Gravitationally bound supermassive black hole binaries (SBHBs) are thought to be a natural product of galactic mergers and growth of the large scale structure in the universe. They however remain observationally elusive, thus raising a question about characteristic observational signatures associated with these systems. In this conference proceeding I discuss current theoretical understanding and latest advances and prospects in observational searches for SBHBs.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures. To appear in the Proceedings of 2014 Sant Cugat Forum on Astrophysics. Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings, ed. C.Sopuerta (Berlin: Springer-Verlag

An updated radiocarbon-based ice margin chronology for the last deglaciation of the North American Ice Sheet Complex

The North American Ice Sheet Complex (NAISC; consisting of the Laurentide, Cordilleran and Innuitian ice sheets) was the largest ice mass to repeatedly grow and decay in the Northern Hemisphere during the Quaternary. Understanding its pattern of retreat following the Last Glacial Maximum is critical for studying many facets of the Late Quaternary, including ice sheet behaviour, the evolution of Holocene landscapes, sea level, atmospheric circulation, and the peopling of the Americas. Currently, the most up-to-date and authoritative margin chronology for the entire ice sheet complex is featured in two publications (Geological Survey of Canada Open File 1574 [Dyke et al., 2003]; ‘Quaternary Glaciations – Extent and Chronology, Part II’ [Dyke, 2004]). These often-cited datasets track ice margin recession in 36 time slices spanning 18 ka to 1 ka (all ages in uncalibrated radiocarbon years) using a combination of geomorphology, stratigraphy and radiocarbon dating. However, by virtue of being over 15 years old, the ice margin chronology requires updating to reflect new work and important revisions. This paper updates the aforementioned 36 ice margin maps to reflect new data from regional studies. We also update the original radiocarbon dataset from the 2003/2004 papers with 1541 new ages to reflect work up to and including 2018. A major revision is made to the 18 ka ice margin, where Banks and Eglinton islands (once considered to be glacial refugia) are now shown to be fully glaciated. Our updated 18 ka ice sheet increased in areal extent from 17.81 to 18.37 million km2, which is an increase of 3.1% in spatial coverage of the NAISC at that time. Elsewhere, we also summarize, region-by-region, significant changes to the deglaciation sequence. This paper integrates new information provided by regional experts and radiocarbon data into the deglaciation sequence while maintaining consistency with the original ice margin positions of Dyke et al. (2003) and Dyke (2004) where new information is lacking; this is a pragmatic solution to satisfy the needs of a Quaternary research community that requires up-to-date knowledge of the pattern of ice margin recession of what was once the world’s largest ice mass. The 36 updated isochrones are available in PDF and shapefile format, together with a spreadsheet of the expanded radiocarbon dataset (n = 5195 ages) and estimates of uncertainty for each interval

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing