Analysis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Satellite-Derived Data as a Groundwater and Drought Monitoring Tool

This research compares Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) groundwater storage (GWS) and root zone soil moisture (RZSM) percentiles to measured data, other drought indicators (DIs) and indices, and stakeholder observations for the purpose of assessing the feasibility and usefulness of these products to detect drought conditions. GRACE percentiles were directly compared to historic groundwater percentiles at 89 Nebraska well locations. Spatial time-series correlations over CONUS were performed between GRACE GWS and RZSM and the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and soil moisture parameters from several North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) models. A survey of stakeholder observations during a 2016 flash drought event centered on Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska was also compared to GRACE percentile data to analyze drought onset timing, geographic coverage, and severity. Overall the results show GRACE GWS has similar spatial and temporal agreement over the well period of record, and generally has the expected negative correlation relationship with observed groundwater, but it does not accurately reflect historic percentiles in Nebraska. GRACE GWS and RZSM have moderate correlation with USDM, and high correlation with SPI, and NLDAS models over the entire U.S. with notable regional and seasonal patterns. SPI accumulation period also plays an important role in correlation strength for both RZSM and GWS with the best agreement seen at 3-month and 12-month accumulation periods, respectively. GRACE RZSM time-series data closely matches stakeholder observations of decreasing soil moisture availability, while observations of decreasing water levels were not as closely matched by GWS. When analyzed as an average over all responding zip codes, RZSM showed an early warning trend up to six weeks prior to observed reports. These results indicate GRACE percentiles are promising drought indicators that can be used as a monitoring and early warning system by decision makers. Advisor: Tsegaye Tadess

Assimilation de données satellitaires pour le suivi et la prévision des sécheresses agricoles et des ressources en eau

Le suivi et la prévision des sècheresses concernent divers porteurs d’enjeux. Le suivi del’étendue, de la gravité et de l’impact des sécheresses est nécessaire pour atténuer leurs effets.Les deux approches les plus utilisées pour le suivi des sécheresses sont la modélisation numérique et l’utilisation de données satellitaires. Les modèles représentent les processus et sont capables de simuler les échanges d’énergie et d’eau à la surface. Ils peuvent néanmoins souffrird’une représentation trop simpliste de ces processus, de conditions initiales incorrectes et dedéfauts du forçage atmosphérique. Les données satellitaires permettent d’accéder à denombreuses variables à l’échelle mondiale, de manière répétée dans le temps et à des échellesspatiales de plus en plus précises. Elles peuvent cependant être discontinues dans le temps etl’espace et toutes les variables des surfaces terrestres ne sont pas observables depuis l’espace.De plus elles sont représentatives d’un instant précis, et contrairement aux modèles numériques,n’offrent pas la possibilité de faire de la prévision. Afin d’améliorer le suivi des sécheresses, il estpossible de combiner les modèles numériques et les observations satellitaires en utilisant destechniques d’assimilation de données. L’assimilation permet d’obtenir de meilleures conditionsinitiales et par conséquent de meilleures prévisions. Ce travail de thèse a pour objectif d’étudierl’impact de conditions de surface améliorées par l’assimilation d’observations satellitaires sur laprévisions des épisodes de sécheresses et leurs impacts sur l’agriculture et les ressources eneau. Le système d’assimilation de données pour les surfaces continentales (LDAS-Monde)développé au CNRM est utilisé. Des observations satellitaires sont assimilées dans le modèle desurface ISBA dans une série d’expériences sur les USA ainsi que sur plusieurs sous-domaines.La capacité du système à représenter et prévoir les variables de surface liées à la végétation etaux sécheresses est évaluée. L’impact de l’assimilation de trois variables différentes est analysé :l’indice de surface foliaire (« LAI »), l’humidité superficielle du sol (« SSM ») et l’épaisseur optiquede la végétation dans le domaine spectral des micro-ondes (« VOD »). L’impact de l’assimilationest analysé grâce à l’utilisation de données indépendantes d’évapotranspiration, de productionprimaire brute de la végétation et d’humidité du sol. Sur l’état du Nebraska, le système LDASMonde permet de représenter la variabilité interannuelle du LAI mais aussi des rendementsagricoles du maïs, y compris lors d’épisodes de sécheresse prolongés. LDAS-Monde a étéamélioré et pourvu d’une capacité de prévision à courte et moyenne échéance (15 jours) enutilisant les prévisions atmosphériques du CEPMMT (ou « ECMWF »). La capacité du système àprévoir les variables de surfaces jusqu’à 15 jours d’échéances a été montrée, sur une période dedeux ans. L’importance des conditions initiales sur la qualité des prévisions a été mise enévidence. Une série d’expériences d’assimilation a été réalisée dans laquelle le VOD a été utilisécomme proxy du LAI. Cela améliore beaucoup l’échantillonnage temporel car le VOD estdisponible plus fréquemment que le LAI. Après une comparaison approfondie des produits de LAI,différentes expériences assimilant le LAI, le VOD et le SSM, de manière conjointe ou séparée ontété réalisées. Ces expériences confirment l’apport de l’assimilation conjointe d’observations liéesà la végétation et de l’humidité superficielle du sol. L’amélioration des conditions initiales estensuite utilisée dans une étude de cas prospective sur la mise en place d’une fonction de transfertdu système actuel vers un système d’alerte précoce des sécheresses

Drought Early Warning and the Timing of Range Managers’ Drought Response

\u27e connection between drought early warning information and the timing of rangeland managers’ response actions is not well understood. \u27is study investigates U.S. Northern Plains range and livestock managers’ decision-making in response to the 2016 flash drought, by means of a postdrought survey of agricultural landowners and using the Protective Action Decision Model theoretical framework. \u27e study found that managers acted in response to environmental cues, but that their responses were significantly delayed compared to when drought conditions emerged. External warnings did not influence the timing of their decisions, though on-farm monitoring and assessment of conditions did. \u27ough this case focused only on a one-year flash drought characterized by rapid drought intensification, waiting to destock pastures was associated with greater losses to range productivity and health and diversity. \u27is study finds evidence of unrealized potential for drought early warning information to support proactive response and improved outcomes for rangeland management

Experiential Learning in Soil Science: Evaluating Soil Quality in South Wollo, Ethiopia

This study abroad program provided an opportunity to enhance the international experience and research skills of University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) students within a multidisciplinary team’s research-education goal on improving food security in Ethiopia. The experiential study component of the project included preparatory sessions during the Fall 2015 Semester at the UNL followed by a four- to five-week fieldwork experience in Ethiopia. Teams from the UNL and an Ethiopian university participated in survey data collection and field soil evaluations from farms in the Gerado area of South Wollo, Ethiopia. Having students interact with farmers increased student self-confidence and enhanced their leadership skills. Soil fertility evaluation provided the opportunity for students to apply soil health concepts in a practical setting, thus giving them a fuller understanding of these commonly challenging concepts. Throughout the study experience in Ethiopia, two UNL students wrote reflective journal entries each day and participated in daily wrap-ups. Students also gave permission to staff at Wollo University and to fellow students and faculty at the UNL. In addition they completed a final paper integrating the journal material and the experiential research work in Ethiopia. Students experienced cultural immersion while participating in this ongoing research project

Drought Early Warning and the Timing of Range Managers’ Drought Response

\u27e connection between drought early warning information and the timing of rangeland managers’ response actions is not well understood. \u27is study investigates U.S. Northern Plains range and livestock managers’ decision-making in response to the 2016 flash drought, by means of a postdrought survey of agricultural landowners and using the Protective Action Decision Model theoretical framework. \u27e study found that managers acted in response to environmental cues, but that their responses were significantly delayed compared to when drought conditions emerged. External warnings did not influence the timing of their decisions, though on-farm monitoring and assessment of conditions did. \u27ough this case focused only on a one-year flash drought characterized by rapid drought intensification, waiting to destock pastures was associated with greater losses to range productivity and health and diversity. \u27is study finds evidence of unrealized potential for drought early warning information to support proactive response and improved outcomes for rangeland management

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good